UK General Election 2010

[CatInASuit]

And so, the next General Election is due to take place on May 6th.

In between now and then we will have three live debates between the three leaders of the main political parties with a lot of day by day campaining on what is likely to be one of the more vicious elections for a while.

The Conservatives are anywhere between 4%-11% in the polls over Labour, which given the nature of the First Past the Post system means anything from a Labour win by a hairsbreadth to a hung parliament to a small Tory majority.

The next month is going to be jam packed full of analysis and polls and swingometers and by the time of the election, I bet most people will be tired of all of them.

So, anyone outside the UK interested in the elections?

[OneCentStamp]

I'm interested and I don't know the first damn thing about it. Help me.

I hear party names like "Labour" and "The Conservatives." You said three main parties. What's the third? (Wait, are the "Tories" a separate party, or is that a nickname for one of the other two?)

In general, what are the stances of the main parties? And is there something that's very likely to change in the UK depending on the outcome? (For example, Americans knew going into the 2008 election that if Obama was elected it meant a probable sooner end to the Iraq occupation, and possible changes in health care. Whether they happened to be for or against those things, they knew what was in the offing.)

[What Exit?]

I'm with OneCentStamp, interested but ignorant.

[ivan astikov]

Layman's explanation.

We have 2 parties, the Conservatives and Labour, who, like your Republicans and Democrats, are basically 2 sides of the same coin. We also have a 3rd party called the Liberals, who are a bunch of disaffected Labour supporters who couldn't get positions of authority, so set up their own party... feckin' splitters! Any vote for them is like voting for the Conservatives.

The Labour party is meant to be the party of the working class, ie. the vast majority of the British public. The Conservatives are the party of the established order and the well-heeled elite. Some working class people would prefer to be seen as part of the well-heeled elite, hence they vote for the Conservatives. There'll also be a significant number of people voting for the Conservatives because David Cameron has nice hair and he and his wife lost a child.

Just thinking about the level of bullshit we will be wading in over the next month is giving me a headache.

[Rube E. Tewesday]

Oh, and "Tory" is a nickname for "Conservative".

[CatInASuit]

A brief summation

The Conservatives aka Tory Party developed from the landed gentry of the 17th/18th Century. In general they are for Big Business, Small Government and are roughly similar, policy wise, to the Democrat Party in the USA, although they tend to get on better with the Republicans.

The Labour Party draws from the Unions formed in the early 20th Century and is the party of the working man. They believe more in Big Government with business beholden to the worker. They are definitely to the left of anything in the USA.

The Liberal party used to be The Whigs and the main oppoisition to the Tories centuries ago, however they have fallen on hard times. They are left leaning believing in higher taxes for better services, but with more personal freedoms.

Now for the fun part.

The Tory party has reinvented itself as the party of achievement for the middle class which is currently a lot bigger than the working class and wants its voters back from Labour. They are still trying to remove the Nasty Party tag.

Labour has climbed into bed with Big Business, but is also being held to ransom by the unions who fund it. People will vote for it as the devil you know instead of the devil you don't

The Liberals don't have to worry about policy so much, because they are not going to be in a position of power, so can say what they like.

Leaders
The Tories are led by David "call me Dave" Cameron who is the next incarnation of Tony Bliar. Looks good, talks well, is a bit flimsy on actual policy.

Labour is led by Gordon "Calamity" Brown, who cannot seem to go from day to day without putting his foot in it. Is also responsible for Britain's current financial state.

The Liberals are led by Nick Clegg, but people only recognise Vince Cable as they man who predicted the recession and who most people would like to be the next chancellor in the case of a hung parliament.

Of course, there are several other parties standing as well,

UKIP - who want UK independence from Europe.
The Green Party - Left Wing Socialists who want very strict Green policies who also want to bankrupt the country and take us back to nature.
BNP - Who Labour has actually managed to make attractive as a voting option.
Natural Law party - Karmic Yoga for all.

[ivan astikov]

BNP - Who Labour has actually managed to make attractive as a voting option.

Whoa! Blaming the BNP on Labour is a bit harsh. Otherwise, good post.

[CatInASuit]

Whoa! Blaming the BNP on Labour is a bit harsh. Otherwise, good post.

It's an unfortunate side effect of Labour's immigration policy over the last ten years, which was along the lines of "open the floodgates".

[ivan astikov]

But was that just Labour's policy making? Weren't they under some sort of edict from the EU?

[CatInASuit]

But was that just Labour's policy making? Weren't they under some sort of edict from the EU?

No, no edict from the EU. There are edicts about refugees and the first country they arrive in should settle them. Amazing how many people made it all the way through Europe and then became a refugee on reaching Britain.

The immigration policy was an attempt at social engineering given that they were more likely to vote Labour, so increasing your own voter base seemed like a good idea.

[The Original An Gadaí]

I have a vague interest in the UK General Election (because ye still occupy six counties of this fair land ). It is strange that the Conversatives aren't doing better, what with all the things Labour has done wrong. Cameron is looking less like a Tory Blair and more like Hague or IDS with each passing week. I was interested to hear from Tory voting relatives of mine of the intrigues with regard to New/Old Conservative selections for the election. It seems somewhat analagous to the New/Old Labour divide in the 1990's and earlier.

[CatInASuit]

There is an interesting old Con/new Con split about the direction the party has taken.

Then again, if Labour lose the election, just wait for the party to tear itself apart between old and new Labour.

[Elendil's Heir]

I'm very interested in British politics and am following the election news pretty closely. There are any number of ways this election could turn out, up to and including a hung parliament (no party having a working majority), and I find it intriguing. I suspect that Labour is going to take a pounding after being so long in power with so little to show for it.

As posted by jjimm in the Dope discussion thread of the UK elections, here's a site to see where you fall on the British political spectrum: http://www.votematch.org.uk/ (although it showed me as more conservative than I think I really am). If you need a fake postal code to take part, try OX1 3DW, which one of the other Dopers supplied.

And of course no discussion of British politics would be complete without this: .

Biscuitbarrel '10!

[CatInASuit]

Well the election manifestos are being released.

Yesterday was Labour with its proposal for Big Government
Today its the Conservatives with its proposal for Big Society
Tomorrow its the Lib Dems, probably with their high personal tax, ruin the financial sector, benefits for all and lets join Europe proposal.

It seems as though both Labour and the Conservatives have had time to come up and refine their proposals and are going to make a good attempt to convey what they mean to people.

Polls are currently showing a 6-7% lead for the Conservatives, which will likely be a minority parliament for them.

[CatInASuit]

And last night we had the first of the televised debates for the leaders of the three maion parties last night.

And the winner so far is Nick Clegg, simply because he can say he is different to the other two leaders.

The spin has already started from all three parties as to how they fared in the debate, but Nick Clegg will now be target number 1 for the Conservatives and Labour. I guess Gordon Brown was not as bad as he could be and David Cameron was not as good as he should have been. I do think Alaister Stewart, the presenter, was not good and just a tad biased towards the Lib Dems.

Will this have an effect on the Election, then I think the answer is yes. If only because of the boost it will have given the Lib Dems in making them seem a credible third party and contender.

Oh well, another one to look forward to in a week's time on Sky TV.

[ivan astikov]

[CatInASuit]

and Gordon Brown comes in with the biggest gaffe of the election so far.

calling a former supporter a "bigoted woman" is going to do nothing for your popularity.

More here

[ivan astikov]

What, even if it was true?

[CatInASuit]

What, even if it was true?

I think it is the two faced nature of his comments that will hurt him the most. Five seconds earlier he had been all smiles at her, then promptly slags her off in the car driving away. It may be something that everyone does, now and again. But no-one likes to see it done to themselves. Also, it doesn't look as though she was being bigoted, so his immediate assumptions that she was, show poor judgement.

It may come to nothing like John Prescott's punch or may even give him a boost if he manages a grovelling enough apology. Of course, for this to be the biggest gaffe of the election, then it has been slow news.

I guess we wait a couple of days to see the impact in the polls.

[ivan astikov]

The brief snippet I've caught on the news where she is blabbering about all these East Europeans coming over here, certainly came across as bigoted to these ears.

Anyone who'd change their vote because of what happened here, deserves everything their dumb decision-making process brings them.

[CatInASuit]

It may affect the floating voters more than the hardcore Labour supporters. Besides, they had the Cabinet out in force trying to smooth things over.

I feel sorry for Gillian Duffy, one unguarded remark from Gordon Brown and she becomes the centre of attention for a large part of the world's media and has them sat on her doorstep.

Anyway, final set of debates tonight, last chance for the Principles to impress us.

[CatInASuit]

Only seven days to go and it will all be over. Political saturation threshold is being exceeded.

Oh well, final debate went off without too much a gaffe in sight and really not much between the three main parties. It's more a question of do you want it to be a society driven change or a state driven change.

Judging by the polls, it looks like David Cameron with the society and business driven recovery came out best and is looking for the associated upswing from the voters.

Labour cannot get a break and had a car crash occur just outside their latest relaunch. Bit like their current election strategy.

The Lib Dems are looking to try and steal the centre left ground to replace Labour and become the second major party in the country. This will depend on Nick Clegg not making any gaffes as the boost is pretty much down to his performance on the debates.

Despite everything, it still looks like a hung parliament is going to be the outcome. You could say hanging was too good for all of them though

The only result I am really looking forward to is to see if the Speaker of the House gets re-elected or if Nigel Farrage of UKIP can unseat him. Now that would be funny.

[What Exit?]

The Gillian Duffy issue made the Daily Show last night. Jon Stewart had fun with it.

Everything I hear sounds like it will indeed be a hung parliament but that it should usher in some reforms that will aid the smaller parties. Why is Labour running Gordon Brown? Couldn't they convince him to retire so they could run someone else or will that be the next step when the voters fail to elect any of the three?

[CatInASuit]

Everything I hear sounds like it will indeed be a hung parliament but that it should usher in some reforms that will aid the smaller parties. Why is Labour running Gordon Brown? Couldn't they convince him to retire so they could run someone else or will that be the next step when the voters fail to elect any of the three?

It is the likely price to pay for the Lib Dem support of some form of electoral reform, either PR or AV.

Labour are running Gordon Brown because they are too scared not to deselect him. When Blair stepped down, everyone knew that running against Brown would lose and likely end their political career, so they didn't.

Currently the main players are all waiting for someone else to make a move. As a result, they are in complete stasis. It didn't help that Gordon Brown made up with Peter Mandleson to bolster his position, who even though he is despised by a lot of people is still a politician par excellence.

If Labour lose the election, it is highly likely Brown will retire to the back benches and let someone else take over.

[The Original An Gadaí]

The BNP want to offer "non-indigenous" British people £50,000 to "go home". Apparently the Irish would be allowed stay, since they're British anyway.

[Rube E. Tewesday]

The BNP want to offer "non-indigenous" British people £50,000 to "go home". Apparently the Irish would be allowed stay, since they're British anyway.

But that's conditional on them digging ditches on demand, right AG?

[CatInASuit]

Only a couple more days left to go and all three parties are going all out to get as many seats as they can.

Labour shoots itself in the foot, when one of their candidates says the current PM is the worst ever.

Iceland sticks it to Cameron and the Tories when N.Ireland airspace is closed just before he is due to travel there due to the volcano (again).

The Lib Dems are trying to work out who to work with in a minority government depending on which day of the week it is.

In all fairness, the expected outcome is either Conversative win by a couple of seats or a minority Conservative government. The talk from the Lib Dems and Labour is now vote tactically. All the chatter about fairness and voting for who you believe in has gone out of the window and has come back down to the tribal "Don't vote Conservative".

[The Original An Gadaí]

Cameron made it to NI I see. He's there for his alliance with the Ulster Unionist Party. I think Cameron is probably the only rat ever to get on a sinking ship. The UUP aren't likely to get more than 1 MP and may even end up with zero after one of their MPs, Lady Hermon became an independent. She parted ways because she didn't approve of the alliance. I suppose the much more popular DUP are just too extreme for the Tories to countenance allying with. It is interesting to note that the Ulster Unionist Party one had the illustrious Enoch Powell as one of their MPs.

[CatInASuit]

It's a hung parliament.

The Conservatives got the most votes and most seats but no mandate from the people. Labour was knocked down several pegs but due to the way the voting works did not lose as much as they should have and the expected rise for the Lib Dems just did not appear.

It's a mess.

Oh well, let the horse trading begin.

[What Exit?]

Will the Lib Dems be able to squeeze any concessions from the other parties?

[Feirefiz]

I notice that at least some commentators act as if the overall outcome was an open question.

Is there really a real chance of a Labour/Liberal minority government or a Labour/Liberal/misc. coalition?

[CatInASuit]

So currently, the Tories and Lib Dems are negotiating how to set up the next government. The big sticking point will be Electoral Reform. The Lib Dems are saying they have to have it or else. The Tories are saying its not an option to change it. I'm betting both of them will compromise on the issue.

Of course, there is still the possibility of the Progreesive Reform/Traffic Light coalition being formed between Labour/Lib Dems and the three nationalist parties. This will just have about enough to try and push some PR reforms through, but is likely to come apart at the seams really quickly.

The biggest sticking point seems to be that no-one wants to work with Labour while Gordon Brown is in power.

[What Exit?]

The biggest sticking point seems to be that no-one wants to work with Labour while Gordon Brown is in power.

This seems completely reasonable. The man appears to be a toad and dead weight to his party.

[CatInASuit]

This seems completely reasonable. The man appears to be a toad and dead weight to his party.

Please don't insult toads in this way.

Some rumours have it that the Labour party were offering his head on a plate to the Lib Dems in return for a coalition.

[What Exit?]

Please don't insult toads in this way.

Some rumours have it that the Labour party were offering his head on a plate to the Lib Dems in return for a coalition.

That seems to make the most sense to me.

[Rube E. Tewesday]

And apparently Brown has offered to step down if that will facilitate a deal:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle1563473/

[CatInASuit]

Gordon Brown has resigned. He will remain as leader for the next few months while a Labour leadership election takes place and they hope to have a new leader by September. As a result, the Lib Dems have pretty much immediately opened dialogue with Labour.

This is not going down well in the UK.

The duplicitious nature of the talks, apparently they were already talking to Labour in secret despite dealing with the Torie, and the reactions of a lot of left and right wing people mean that any goodwill Nick Clegg had is rapidly vanishing.

The Tories are being very quiet on what they think of the Lib Dems, certain ex-MPs less so. Certain ex-Labour MPs are also voicing the same thoughts "Can we trust the Liberal Democrats? They’re behaving like every harlot in history,".

This is beginning to look more like a power grab to keep Labour in power along with the supposition that the local groups like SNP, Plaid Cymru would not vote with the Tories, so in parliament they would not matter.

Not to mention that the Tories are likely to go further on electoral reform that Labour, if only because more of Labour is against PR and pro FPTP.

It's make your mind up time Nick, time to take a position, which would actually be an achievement for a Lib Dem.

[The Original An Gadaí]

Liberal Harlocrats, I like it.

[The Original An Gadaí]

[CatInASuit]

As they say, a week is a long time in politics, but yesterday seemed like a lifetime.

The Labour/Lib Dem talks broke down, the mud slinging resulting from that is quite amusing. Gordon Brown then stepped down and David Cameron is now leading a coalition of Tories and Lib Dems with Nick Clegg as his Deputy. If you had asked at the beginning of the morning if that was possible, the answer was likely to be no.

Already sections of people are saying that it will not last six months. If they make it last five years, as they are planning to, consider the rulebook of British politics well and truly ripped up.

They have combined their manifestos, compromised on several areas and come to a full agreement on how to take this forward. Lib Dems will be in the Cabinet alongside the Tories and all Labour will have to go away, regroup and think about what party it wants to be.

We are definitely living in interesting times.

[Elendil's Heir]

Here's the full text of the coalition agreement: http://www.scribd.com/doc/31255232/B...ment-Agreement

I can't see this coalition lasting a whole five years, but it looks like they're really going to try. And I have to admit, for an Anglophile and a political junkie like me, this is catnip!

[What Exit?]

Minor note to the whole thing. David Cameron is the youngest PM in a long time is he not? I know he is a Tory but where would he fit on the American Scale; a Liberal Republican or a Clinton type Dem?

[Elendil's Heir]

He's the youngest PM since Lord Liverpool in 1812. Liverpool was 42; Cameron is 43. Comparisons to American politics are a little tricky, as the British mainstream is a good bit to the left of the American equivalent, and Cameron has worked hard to make the Tories more centrist. I'd say he'd be a pretty liberal Republican (esp. given his support of national healthcare, which the UK has had since just after WW2, and gay rights).

[CatInASuit]

I would agree that Cameron is more or less a Liberal Republican. I believe his preference was for McCain in the last Presedential Election instead of Obama but that may be more to the usual Republican-Tory Democrat-Labour links that used to exist.

Clegg and the Liberal Democrats are to the left of Democrats with Labour further left still.

Of course, the right wing papers are now furious with Cameron for allowing themselves to go into coalition with a left wing party and disclaiming all his actions. The Left wing papers are furious with the Lib Dems for allowing the Tories back into power and want to return to supporting Labour.

On the ground, people seem more optimistic though. Either it will go up in smoke in 6 months (Labour are actually planning for an election in September) or it will last. Taking the best of both parties and making it work is something that has not occured in British politics for a long time and is anathema to many who cannot or will not change. Strangely enough they are going to carry out the reforms Labour promised for 13 years and never delivered. Who would have thought it.

I can't wait for the Great Repeal Bill being constructed.

[What Exit?]

...Taking the best of both parties and making it work is something that has not occured in British politics for a long time and is anathema to many who cannot or will not change. ...

These words are as true here as in the UK. Our parties have gotten further apart.

Thank you for this thread CIAS, it was very informative and excellent to follow.

[CatInASuit]

We also have a 3rd party called the Liberals, who are a bunch of disaffected Labour supporters who couldn't get positions of authority, so set up their own party... feckin' splitters! Any vote for them is like voting for the Conservatives.

Ivan, You wouldn't happen to have the numbers for this weekend's lottery would you.

[The Original An Gadaí]

Ivan the political precog!

[ivan astikov]

Who'd a thunk it!?!

I also predicted that Stevie Gerrard would score an own goal against Chelsea to prevent Utd winning the Premier League. A back-pass to Drogba was as good as an own goal!

There's an £86 million roll-over in the Euro Millions Lotto tomorrow! No, I'm not telling you my numbers; I don't want to share with anyone. That's how I roll, man!