OK, baseball-loving Mellos...

[OneCentStamp]

...let's talk about Stephen Strasburg.

Are you excited about him? Do you have doubts or reservations? What do you think? I mean, that was one hell of a debut for a pitcher. And I know that most "can't miss" pitching prospects who come out on fire end up being merely pretty good (thinking Kerry Wood), but this kid has poise, humility and an absolute monster arm.

[Cluricaun]

Good for him, that's hard to do. It's even harder to keep up that pace once there's tape on you and scouting reports on you. Yes, that's an impressive arm. Yes, I'd kill for him to be a Cub but there's a slim chance if any if he keeps it up for any real length of time.

You nailed it when you mentioned Kerry Wood. 20 strikeouts in a single game in 1998 set the world on fire and an often injured Wood chased that feat for the next 10 seasons and struggled to be anything but a rather average pitcher at best. I'm not saying that this kid has a one way ticket down Tommy John lane or anything, but throwing like that will nuke his arm sooner than later and the real test of a pitcher in the MLB is to be able to deliver decent performance for 4 or 5 seasons while never again seeing yourself in the condition you did as a rook. I hope that he goes down as a legend, but chances are he'll be largely forgotten in 2 or 3 years.

[Rube E. Tewesday]

Yeah, we'll see. It's impressive to see a fireballer starting off like that, and good for the Nationals, but boy, it's hard to keep your arm from suffering when you throw like that. (Visions of Sandy Koufax, his elbow swelled to the size of a grapefruit, with his arm in a bucket of ice.)

[dread pirate jimbo]

Two words: Rick Ankiel.

Looking at highlights of the kid, his mechanics look pretty sound (he looks like he might be hyperextending when he pops in one picture I've seen, but looks just fine in others), so I'm not too concerned about him blowing his arm, although if the Natinals (I still like calling them that) start running up his pitch counts and innings, they could have a Mark Prior on their hands who's just burned out after only a couple years. My concern would be between his ears -- can he handle the pressure and the scrutiny that will come from being The Next Big Thing for the remainder of the season? Rick Ankiel reached the Majors with the Next Big Thing label and pitched well enough to win the Rookie of the Year in the National League, before his complete and utter mental collapse in the playoffs that year. The fact that he was able to turn himself into an outfielder and make his way back to the Show was remarkable, frankly. We'll see how Strasburg handles the pressure... perhaps playing for a shitty team like Washington will help, since there's no concern about him leading them to the post-season. Yet.

The follow-up question is how long Washington waits to call up their other "Can't Miss" prospect. Word is that they plan to take their time developing Bryce Harper into an outfielder and maybe leave him onthe farm for 2-3 seasons, but if he signs quickly, they get him playing A-ball, and he starts tearing it up, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see the Natinals promote him for a September peek. I'd be equally unsurprised if they found an excuse to have him strap on the gear and catch Strasburg in a meaningless late season game, just to put fans in the seats. We'll see, though.

[What Exit?]

It was fun watching part of the game last night on MLB channel. The kid had great command overall and good poise. He worked quick which I always look for as a good sign. The 14 strikeouts in 7 innings is an excellent debut. The best in nearly 40 years. J.R. Richard did a bit better in 1971 I think I heard. BTW: J.R. was great for years until the team doubted his injury the one season and he pitched through it and ended his career. That at least does not happen anymore.

I hope Strasburg can keep wowing us. The Nats did this well. A home game against the free-swinging Pirates to be followed by a trip to Cleveland is a good way to start a career well.

I remember the 20 K game by Woods well. I was listening to much of it. It was really exciting. Another phenom of note would of course be The Bird, Mark Fidrych. His career arc was very high and very short. But again J.R. Richard was the counter example. Though it took him a few years to get rolling.

Dwight Gooden was another Rookie Phenom who lasted for a while and it was more lifestyle that did him in that his arm blowing out.

[OneCentStamp]

In these days where sports media and fans always want so badly to crown some teenager "The Next ______," I guess I just kind of like hoping one actually pans out. I mean, it does happen from time to time - I think we can safely say at this point that LeBron James is as advertised, and Sidney Crosby maybe as well if he sticks around - but baseball seems notoriously hard to draft compared to other sports.

[What Exit?]

Well baseball is the toughest to draft. B-Ball the easiest I think. The last #1 overall pick in baseball to make the Hall of Fame was Reggie Jackson. In Derek Jeter's class of draft where he was #6 I believe, he is the only first rounder likely to make the Hall.
Now A-Rod and Griffey were both first picks overall (I think) so I suspect both will join Reggie. Griffey will do it on the first ballot.

I found this great Wiki article for this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...ll_draft_picks
Many made it to the majors but Harold Baines is the first one that was a very good player and Strawberry 1980 the first great one. Griffey will be the first overall pick to go to the Hall. I was wrong about Reggie. Maybe he was the first, first rounder to go.

[Cluricaun]

Crosby is the real deal, barring some freak accident he’ll be terrorizing the NHL for a long time to come. Patrick Kane is another who’s all that he was cracked up to be, but needs to get a handle on his personal life before he gets into trouble that nobody can get him out of.

Baseball is professional sports, but it’s again another world unto itself. Guys come in out of nowhere and become rock stars and others never live up to their paychecks. There’s a bit of that in the NFL too, but baseball careers can last 10 lifetimes in the NFL. Jaime Moyer made his debut in 1986 (with the Cubs no less), the year after the Bears last won the Super Bowl and he’s still going with the Phillies.

I just hope the attention doesn’t wreck this kid’s career past the point of an interesting sidenote in a stat book.

[SeeOhTwo]

Dwight Gooden was another Rookie Phenom who lasted for a while and it was more lifestyle that did him in that his arm blowing out.

I've often wondered about that. In his first three seasons, he averaged 257 innings a year. That is from age 19 to 21. You never see young pitchers handled that way anymore, and for good reason. I wonder how long his peak might have lasted if they increased his innings slowly.

I'm a life long Yanks fan and I used to hate the Mets, but I watched as many of Gooden's starts as I could when he came up. I even went to Shea and paid for box seats to watch him. Probably the best I ever saw...I'd say Pedro Martinez's peak is the only parallel in my baseball watching lifetime. I'm sure the drugs were a big part of his decline and it's a damn shame. Once in a generation stuff.

The Nationals are going to limit Strasburg's innings. From there, it's just a matter of genetics and mechanics.

[What Exit?]

I've often wondered about that. In his first three seasons, he averaged 257 innings a year. That is from age 19 to 21. You never see young pitchers handled that way anymore, and for good reason. I wonder how long his peak might have lasted if they increased his innings slowly.

I'm a life long Yanks fan and I used to hate the Mets, but I watched as many of Gooden's starts as I could when he came up. I even went to Shea and paid for box seats to watch him. Probably the best I ever saw...I'd say Pedro Martinez's peak is the only parallel in my baseball watching lifetime. I'm sure the drugs were a big part of his decline and it's a damn shame. Once in a generation stuff.

The Nationals are going to limit Strasburg's innings. From there, it's just a matter of genetics and mechanics.

The Nats are doing it the right way.

As to Gooden, even as a Yankee fan I could help but be amazed by it. Pedro on the otherhand, I just kept hoping would stop.

[dread pirate jimbo]

I've often wondered about that. In his first three seasons, he averaged 257 innings a year. That is from age 19 to 21. You never see young pitchers handled that way anymore, and for good reason. I wonder how long his peak might have lasted if they increased his innings slowly.

I'm a life long Yanks fan and I used to hate the Mets, but I watched as many of Gooden's starts as I could when he came up. I even went to Shea and paid for box seats to watch him. Probably the best I ever saw...I'd say Pedro Martinez's peak is the only parallel in my baseball watching lifetime. I'm sure the drugs were a big part of his decline and it's a damn shame. Once in a generation stuff.

The Nationals are going to limit Strasburg's innings. From there, it's just a matter of genetics and mechanics.

The Nats are doing it the right way.

As to Gooden, even as a Yankee fan I could help but be amazed by it. Pedro on the otherhand, I just kept hoping would stop.

Coach Jimbo chiming in here: The reason pitchers' arms are so fragile these days is because we baby them too much. Only a generation ago, it was the responsibility of a starting pitcher to throw eight innings or a complete game, most every night. And kids growing up threw and threw and threw and threw some more. When aluminum bats showed up on the scene down at the little leagues, in order to not get killed constantly, kids stopped throwing as many fastballs and started throwing far more breaking pitches that a) don't help strengthen arms and b) stress the joints badly. Consequently, overall velocity began to drop and arm fatigue became a bigger and bigger factor. In the modern game, where starters are only expected to get through five innings and it is very rare for any pitcher to get over 100 pitches in an appearance, arm strength simply isn't a priority. So baseball has basically done it to itself, creating weak-ass pitchers who break down if they're worked hard. I consider that to be a serious problem in the modern approach to buiding young ballplayers.

In Gooden's case, it turned out to be a genetic weakness in his shoulder that did him in. His delivery was so smooth and so maechanically sound that he was able to dominate for several years before his shoulder just blew up from the stress, without any real warning and without anyone ever realizuing that it was a ticking time bomb. Had a doctor ever given it a good look and seen that the shoulder was weak, they might have been able to do some additional strengthening work or reduced his work load, but there was never any reason to do such a thing, so really it was just a matter of time before he wound up on the DL. Meanwhile, his comtemporary young phenom pitchers, like Roger Clemens, Orel Hershiser, and Bret Saberhagen, just kept on plugging away, running up high inning totals year after year with no major issues. And notwithstanding the arm injury and the drug problems, Doc still managed to hang around the Show for 16 seasons and win 194 games, so he still had a very solid career, all things considered.

The Natinals are gonna baby Strasburg's arm because he's kinda the franchise player right now, but I'm not convinced they're doing themselves or the kid any good by doing so. A fastball is a use-it-or-lose-it tool and if they never open the kid up and let him start throwing 100-110 pitches a game, he'll never develop the strength to be a truly dominant pitcher, IMO.

[Cluricaun]

The Natinals are gonna baby Strasburg's arm because he's kinda the franchise player right now, but I'm not convinced they're doing themselves or the kid any good by doing so. A fastball is a use-it-or-lose-it tool and if they never open the kid up and let him start throwing 100-110 pitches a game, he'll never develop the strength to be a truly dominant pitcher, IMO.

I don't know the kids repetoire at all. Does he have any breaking stuff? Sliders or curves or sloppy sliders (there is no such thing as a slurve, it's just a shitty slider IMHO) or is he a real oldschool fireballer who gets by on modified fastballs like changes, cutters, splitters, sliders and sinkers for his backups?

[dread pirate jimbo]

I don't know the kids repetoire at all. Does he have any breaking stuff? Sliders or curves or sloppy sliders (there is no such thing as a slurve, it's just a shitty slider IMHO) or is he a real oldschool fireballer who gets by on modified fastballs like changes, cutters, splitters, sliders and sinkers for his backups?

From what I've seen, he's got a 97 mph fastball and a pretty filthy curve (although Strasburg describes it as a slurve), with maybe a changeup mixed in, but the change is definitely a third option. Again, IMO as a power pitcher, with strong mechanics and the prototype power pitcher frame, he should be capable of routinely breaking 100 pitches a start without breaking down. (Should be... )

[Rube E. Tewesday]

Watching the White Sox game today, the commentators were saying that all the Sox they had talked to about Strasburg were talking ONLY about his change-up. That was interesting. I still haven't seen the kid, but it sounds like he's not just a power machine.

[dread pirate jimbo]

Watching the White Sox game today, the commentators were saying that all the Sox they had talked to about Strasburg were talking ONLY about his change-up. That was interesting. I still haven't seen the kid, but it sounds like he's not just a power machine.

That is interesting, because the scouting reports I've seen say the change is his worst pitch (or was when he started playing in the minors). If he's got command of that pitch now, he's gonna make a lot of hitters look really bad.

[Cluricaun]

Well isn't the change really just a badly gripped two seam fastball at it's heart? There's no reason that he shouldn't be able to throw one. Although the idea that he has a "slurve" bothers me. Like I mentioned, a slurve is either a shitty slider or a curve ball that doesn't break right. Call it what you will, to me it's just a half baked version of something else. If you can't slide or curve maybe you can slurve. That's not really a pitch you want to have to depend on, Kerry Wood and his 1998 strikeout fest not withstanding.

[dread pirate jimbo]

Well isn't the change really just a badly gripped two seam fastball at it's heart? There's no reason that he shouldn't be able to throw one. Although the idea that he has a "slurve" bothers me. Like I mentioned, a slurve is either a shitty slider or a curve ball that doesn't break right. Call it what you will, to me it's just a half baked version of something else. If you can't slide or curve maybe you can slurve. That's not really a pitch you want to have to depend on, Kerry Wood and his 1998 strikeout fest not withstanding.

I agree with you about the slurve, and as far as I'm aware, everyone who isn't Strasburg would call his breaking pitch a hard curve, not a slurve. But he seems to think it's a slurve (which only goes to show how dumb some young athletes can be).

As to the change-up, no it's much more than just a badly gripped two-seamer -- in fact, the grip is the most important part. Essentially, you're trying to throw a pitch that looks exactly like your fastball when you release it, but is traveling several mph slower than the fastball. The grip is what creates extra drag and also slows down your wrist snap, cutting your velocity. The easiest way to do this is to just grip the ball with three fingers instead of two (and your thumb, of course) and getting the ball a little deeper into your palm to force your wrist muscles to tighten up. Being able to pull 10 mph off your fastball without tipping it off is an art unto itself, and one that more pitchers should spend time working on.

[Rube E. Tewesday]

"Slurve" sounds like it should be a limited time special at Dairy Queen. Even if he has one, he should call it something else.

[dread pirate jimbo]

I think his confusion comes from the fact that his curve doesn't have a true 12-6 break -- it's more 11-5 or even 10-4, which makes it look more like a slider action, even though it isn't. A curveball has a tumbling rotation, top-to-bottom, in reverse of a fastball's rotation, whereas a slider has a spiral rotation like a football. Strasburg throws a curve, but does so from a 3/4 release point, which breaks it at more of a diagonal than straight up and down.

[featherlou]

"Slurve" sounds like it should be a limited time special at Dairy Queen. Even if he has one, he should call it something else.

I want a brownie batter slurve. OOh, hey, there's a baseball tie-in in there!

[Cluricaun]

I'm not saying that this kid has a one way ticket down Tommy John lane or anything, but throwing like that will nuke his arm sooner than later.

Ok, looks like he DID have a one way ticket down Tommy John lane. Strasburg is presumably about to end his season so he can get exactly that done. Less than one full season and he tore that arm up. Sorry kid, hope you've been working on pitches and placement in the meantime.

http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/0...er=rss&emc=rss

[What Exit?]

By the little I saw and most reports, his arm motion was a disaster waiting to happen. The Nats screwed this one up pretty bad.