Military/Political counterfactual from the 00's

[Erictelevision]

Reading a 2020 Dems candidate thread at the Dope made me think of this:

Gore wins in 2000, therefore 9/11 doesn't happen. Therefore we don't invade Iraq, does Saddam stay in power, only to be overthrown during the Arab Spring?

[What Exit?]

Why wouldn't 9/11 happen because of Gore?

9/11 probably would have happened but I don't think Gore would have invaded Iraq, that was pretty much Cheney's adventure. Gore may have went after Bin Laden very hard and thus lead us into Afghanistan but would have actually focused on it then.

As to Arab Spring & Saddam, I can't even guess.

[Erictelevision]

Gore would have taken the intelligence seriously.

[What Exit?]

Gore would have taken the intelligence seriously.

I'm not really going to buy it, there was a lot of information overload and it may still have never made it to Gore's eyes. Yes, intelligence existed but so did hundreds of other somewhat credible threats.

Maybe Gore would have restored the ready fighters and the second jet never would have hit and/or the Pentagon's. But that if iffy at best.

[Erictelevision]

Of course, we'll never know.

[Elendil's Heir]

I would like to think that a President Gore would've taken reports about OBL and Al Qaeda more seriously than President Bush did, but I suspect 9-11 would still have unfolded much as it did. What came next would be crucial, of course - I agree with What Exit that an invasion of Afghanistan would still very likely have followed, as Al Qaeda was being sheltered by the Taliban regime. I think it very unlikely that we would've invaded Iraq, though, which would've left Saddam Hussein in power there but would've saved many lives - American, allied and Iraqi - lost in the invasion and its long, tragic, messy aftermath. It'd be no fun for those still living under his dictatorial rule, though.

[Erictelevision]

You mean would NOT invade Iraq right? You think that him taking the intelligence seriously wouldn't prevented 9/11?

[What Exit?]

You mean would NOT invade Iraq right? You think that him taking the intelligence seriously wouldn't prevented 9/11?

If you ever look through the 9/11 report or a good summary of it, you'll see the intelligence would be hard to actually react to for the white-noise of other credible threats. Again, Gore might have reintroduced the ready fighters that were based in NJ and elsewhere that might have scrambled in time to stop the second tower hit, but I don't know if even additional readiness could have done that in time.