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Originally posted by storyteller
Just doing my part, to promote the wonder of DoMeBo.
If you argue I will come :mrgreen:
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Anyway, after the spanking I took last year arguing with you about the Rays, I should know better than to wade in here, but I'm nothing if not stubborn.
Beats the current argument on the Dope on Varitek's magical powers.
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Agreed on Adrian Gonzalez, who is a good hitter (why does Jon Daniels still have a job? Gonzalez and Chris Young for Crap and Crapper should have done for him in Texas all by itself). But who else? Their next-best hitter will be Brian Giles, who is an estimated 8 million years old. After that it's Kouzmanoff and Headley, neither of whom would even be in the conversation for a good team (Headley could be good, I guess, but Kouzmanoff? I don't see the upside). And the next four guys will be, in some order, the Gerut/Hairston platoon, which is not awful but not good, and then no fewer than three automatic out types. Their staff is not pretty good. Their top starter is excellent, their number two is pretty good. Their third starter is below average; their fourth starter had an ERA over 6.00 last year. Their bullpen is three decent guys - not shutdown guys, but decent - and Health Bell. This is going to be a bad team, and I'll take the under if the over/under is 75 wins.
If you want to call them a 70 win team instead of a 75 win that is fine. I just don't think they are the worst team in baseball that people seem to be projecting them to be.
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I don't even know if Ian Stewart is going to play. You got your Seth Smith and your Ryan Spilborghs and your Brad Hawpe and your Carlos Gonzalez and your Matt Murton in the outfield, and Garrett Atkins is the third baseman. I simply can't imagine a circumstance where Tulowitzski bouncing back (which is likely but not certain) and Ian Stewart getting in there for, I dunno, Smith, is going to make up for Holliday's production. Helton is no longer a plus player at first, Barmes is terrible, and that outfield is not good. And their pitching is not going to be good enough. Cook and Jiminez are OK, I guess, but who's the rest of their rotation? Jason Marquis? I'll be shocked if they win 85 games.
Stewart will play left I think. Hawpe, Gonzalez, and Stewart will be a decent outfield and they are potentially very good at the tough to fill positions of catcher and short. The corners will be okay, so really the only major problem is 2nd. I don't think 81 and 85 is an incredible difference between us though. I just like them, particularly the starting pitching, a bit more.
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But that's just speculation. Yes, I know, everybody loves Justin Upton, but the fact is that Manny Ramirez had a better season offensively last year, including his supposed "dogging it" in Boston, then Justin Upton has ever had in his professional career, including the minor leagues. To project Upton, who struck out 121 times in 356 at bats, is 20 years old, and hasn't proven that he's even an above-average player at this level, to be better than Ramirez, is guesswork. I could just as easily, and with the same amount of evidence, predict that Matt Kemp, whose minor league numbers are at least comparable to Upton's and whose major league numbers are certainly better, will be better than Manny.
Remember last year when you said the Rays hadn't proved anything, and I argued their talent was historic. Upton is a historic talent. Scouts say that he, along with Arod and Griffey, are the top high school players in the last 25 years. Of course it is speculation that Upton takes a major step forward this season, any prediction is, but i feel comfortable with that bet. Putting up league avg production as a 20 year old is a great indicator of stardom. The risk is not that he doesn't become great , but rather it takes a couple of years. Kemp, and I love Kemp, just isn't on that level. His minor league numbers aren't comparable because he was older then than Upton is now.
As for Ramirez the number that jumps out is 37. There just aren't that many great hitter at age 37/38. And if Manny takes a step back offensively the other stuff becomes a greater detriment. We can't just say that a guy is great, because he was great last year, or vica versa. The 20 year old will assurdedly get better and the 37 year old will likely get worse. When the ages are that extreme, climbs and falls will often be swift and extreme.
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That's quite a huge leap. At 20 years old, his second year in the league, Ken Griffey, Jr, hit .300/.366/.481 on his way to an OPS+ of 135. Upton's rate stats look superficially similar (.250/.353/.463), but comparing his path so far to Griffey's only work's if you're making liberal use of the phrase "a poor man's." Chris Young's career batting average is .243 - sure, he could hit .280 this year. Clayton Kershaw could also pitch to an ERA under 3.00. I think they're about equally likely. Jackson has never shown serious power at any point in his career, so while it's possible that it could just materialize it's not likely. Chad Tracy is 29 years old, and his career his been remarkably consistent (with the exception of an outlying 2005). Mark Reynolds is not, right now, a particularly good ballplayer.
Upton avg was lower, but the power and walk rates were better. Those numbers look pretty similar to me. There is more to than numbers. Scouts say he is every bit of prospect that Griffey was too. As for Young, wait I said 280? Let's make that 265. He still would be a very good player with an avg like that, and isn't a bad player now. He probably shouldn't lead off though. Jackson, Tracy, and Reynolds I think can be a bit better, but you are right they aren't going to be stars.
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You and I have a different definition of "fantastic." Two great starters, two innings-eaters, and a might-be add up to a good, not great, rotation. The bullpen, meanwhile, is OK. Other than Chad Qualls, only one single projected D-backs reliever had an ERA under 4.00 last year: Scott Schoenweis. Letting Juan Cruz go is going to hurt that bullpen.
Who has a better staff in the NL? The Giants maybe, but Linecum is a far greater risk than Webb/Haren. The Cubs if you think Zambrano will bounce back, Harden will stay healthy, and Dempster's 2008 was real, which I don't. So how bout I just call it the top 1 or 2 staffs outside of the AL east.
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Yes Billingsley is a huge downgrade on Webb. Webb has been the top two in CY Young voting for the last 3 years. He hasn't just been consistently great, he has been consistently healthy too. Billingsly never has had anywhere near that level of success over an extended period of time, and he is already hurting.
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And yet you're happy to project Justin Upton, who has never had anywhere near any level of success at the major league level, to be superior to Manny Ramirez?
I didn't say he would be better, I said I wouldn't be shocked if he was.
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Billingsley has performed at a high level in his entire major league career. He threw 200 innings last year. He broke his leg in a non-baseball fashion; I'm not sure I can qualify that as "already hurting" in a meaningful sense - it's not like he has a pitching-related shoulder injury that is likely to recur. Frankly, if you can argue that Upton could be close to Manny, I can argue that Billingsley could be close to Webb. The strikeout rate! Come on, man, the strikeout rate! If he cuts his walk rate by just a little bit, he'll be one of the best starters in baseball.
Young hitters are much safer bets than young pitchers. Billingsley has had little injuried here and there and the hip thing, while not baseball related, can still cause baseball injuries. It isn't rare for an injury to cause a player to throw differently, and resulting in cascade injuries. Billingsley can be great, perhaps as good as Webb, but he could also blow out his arm. Ditto Kershaw who has even greater upside.
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Other than last year, I assume you mean, when Wolf pitched 190 innings (fifty more than Davis)?
Other than last year. Every year from 2004-2007 Davis has had more than 30 starts, and Wolf has had less than 25. So yeah I think one has a better shot at staying healthy than the other, and it isn't Wolf.
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Well, yeah, and this is why I don't understand your argument. Your argument hinges on the players with upside on the D-backs all fulfilling that promise, but doesn't acknowledge that there are players on the Dodgers - Billingsley, Kershaw, Kemp, Loney, Ethier - with just as much upside. Is there some reason to suspect that Scherzer, Upton, and Chris Young are significantly more likely to emerge as real stars than Kemp, Kershaw, or Loney?
I actually like Kershaw more than Scherzer. Scherezer is already hurting in a worse place than Billingsley. There are some differences though. Not all young players are equal, they have different risks, timetables and upsides. Ethier for example I don't believe has much of an upside at all. I think he is pretty much what he is. Kemp and Loney could get a bit better, but they are already pretty good. I don't think it will make much of a difference. Neither of them has the power to hit more than 25 or so hr a year. Billingsley and Kershaw have ace potential, but young pitchers break. And the Dodgers have virtuously nothing in terms of depth. Dbacks hitters are safer bets and can make bigger jumps.
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Really? OK, but that's just complete speculation. Again, Billingsley and Wolf both pitched 190+ innings last year.
Again young pitchers who have thrown a lot of innings break. Maybe Billingsley is the exception, but I think he will miss some time with something or other. And Wolf has had one healthy year in 5.
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And by "lately" you mean "in 2008," right? Because Furcal has reached 550 at bats in every single season of his entire career other than 2001 and 2008. "was injured in 2008" does not mean "has no ability to stay healthy." And if 2008 is the determining factor, why are you describing Randy Wolf as injured when he was healthy as a bear in '08?
Not all injuries are the same. Orlando Hudson has been hurt a lot too, but those were flukey injuries. I'm not too concerned about his health. Furcal on the hand has a wrist, a brutal injury for a baseball player, which keeps getting hurt and doesn't seem to ever heal properly. I'd be much more worried that his wrist will still be hurting or will be reinjured. The fact that Wolf survived last season, doesn't make him a great bet to do it again. Want to bet on Rich Harden being healthy too?
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Likely? I don't think so.
I do. Ethier is a slightly above avg player, Upton is a star. Really look at the names of players who have done okay in the majors at 20 sometime.
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I say the opposite, and, as I said, by a wide margin. The Dodgers are going to be better on offense than the D-backs to a degree far greater than the D-backs will be better on the mound. I mean, adding everything together, the Dodgers won 84 games last year, "should have" won 87, and added a half season of Manny Ramirez and Rafael Furcal, while replacing Derek Lowe with Randy Wolf. I think there's no way that team performs worse this year, and they were a bit unlucky last year. The D-backs won 82 last season, exactly their Pythag. projection, and they lost a good relief pitcher. I just don't see there being six wins of improvement in the kids.
I think the Dbacks will get 6 games better from Upton/Drew/young, and everything else will basically hold steady. And I think the Dodgers starting pitching will be 5+ games worse. They will miss Lowe's innings as much as his ability.
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But I'll do win predictions, too, just for kicks:
Dodgers 88
D-Backs 83
Rockies 81
Giants 74
Padres 70
I was going to start a predictions thread, I just don't know what board to put it on.