Let's stipulate that anyone polling below 3% bails after IA and NH. Where does their support go?
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Let's stipulate that anyone polling below 3% bails after IA and NH. Where does their support go?
Here's the current lineup: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republ...ndidates,_2016
I suspect it's going to come down to Jeb!, The Donald, Rand Paul and Scott Walker after the first few primaries and caucuses. Mainstream GOP folks are going to go for Jeb!, Rand Paul will get the Tea Party types, Scott Walker will get the union-haters and The Donald will get everyone else. When all is said and done, I think Jeb! ends up with the nomination, but he might be pretty battered and bruised by the time he reaches the GOP convention finish line in Cleveland in mid-July 2016.
And I would not be surprised in the least if Trump runs as a spoiler/independent.
According to newest polls I can find we'd lose:
Perry
Santorum
Fiorina
Jindal
Pataki
Graham
Gilmore
Trump will start dropping fast when things get serious. He is entertaining now and has huge name recognition; but he will drop. I agree that sadly Bush will probably end up with the nom. I don't think there is 1 repub I really like. But I don't know them all yet either, there are so many.