A Scottish Referendum

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15 Oct 2012 09:13 AM
CatInASuit

A Scottish Referendum

Today a fairly historic declaration has been made, allowing the Scots to have a referendum saying whether they want in or out of the UK.

There were several options being considered by both sides, and from it, there is no second question about more tax independence from the UK, just a straight in-out, but 16/17 year olds also get to vote.

The date is set for sometime in 2014 (probably around the anniversary of Bannockburn).

I'm torn. On one side, I want to keep the UK as the UK, in some ways a bigger and better identity than just Scotland and England/Wales/N Ireland. The flipside means not paying for Scotland and its huge public sector and benefit culture. Allegedly.

All those details would need to be worked out, should they vote that way.
16 Oct 2012 12:49 AM
The Original An Gadaí

I've a feeling most Scots will vote with their pockets and vote to stay with the sugar daddy that is England. :)
16 Oct 2012 12:52 PM
Elendil's Heir

The United Kingdom is greater than the sum of its parts, with a long and celebrated history. It would be diminished by losing Scotland, and I suspect that Scotland would find it tough going once those bonds had been broken. None of the arguments for Scottish independence are persuasive to me.
17 Oct 2012 01:25 AM
The Original An Gadaí

But you're not Scottish so they don't have to be.
17 Oct 2012 07:30 AM
CatInASuit

Strangely enough, independence for Scotland is likely to mean being ruled from Brussels with an English currency.

Crazy time.
17 Oct 2012 10:00 AM
What Exit?

Quote:

Originally posted by CatInASuit

Strangely enough, independence for Scotland is likely to mean being ruled from Brussels with an English currency.

Crazy time.

Can you explain this?
17 Oct 2012 09:28 PM
Elendil's Heir

Quote:

Originally posted by The Original An Gadaí

But you're not Scottish so they don't have to be.

True. I did not know that my non-Scottishness precluded my posting in this thread.
18 Oct 2012 05:39 AM
CatInASuit

Quote:

Originally posted by What Exit?

Quote:

Originally posted by CatInASuit

Strangely enough, independence for Scotland is likely to mean being ruled from Brussels with an English currency.

Crazy time.

Can you explain this?

Ok, the initial thought of the Scottish Nationalists was that they would leave the UK and become a sovereign nation under the EU umbrella of countries and having the Euro as a currency, but also having the UK Optouts on certain areas of policy, allowing at the same latitude of freedom that the UK currently has.

So problems with this: The Eurozone has tanked as an economy and joining the Euro is seen as a very bad idea because, as a small country, it would be at the mercy of the larger Eurozones countries making their financial policy work for them. see Greece. However, as a new country, if it wanted to join the Eurozone, one commitment it would have to make is to sign up to the Euro.

The other problem is that in joining the Euro, it would only be allowed to keep any of the Optouts agreed with the UK, if every other country in the EU agreed with it and that is not going to happen.

So what it would be doing is joining, the EU as a kind of associate, and put off joining the Euro for the future, so it still has to abide by most of the EU rules, but still keeping its own currency. Or rather keep Sterling, which is controlled by London.

In general, a mess.
18 Oct 2012 10:19 PM
Elendil's Heir

The worst of both worlds?
18 Oct 2012 10:25 PM
The Original An Gadaí

Quote:

Originally posted by Elendil's Heir

Quote:

Originally posted by The Original An Gadaí

But you're not Scottish so they don't have to be.

True. I did not know that my non-Scottishness precluded my posting in this thread.

Sorry, I didn't mean to seem so dismissive. I just meant that when it comes to national referenda, in this day and age anyway, it's rarely a clear cut case that independence will improve the lot of the people. Nationalism has pull in non-sovereign (for want of a better term) countries like Scotland, and that nationalism, that will to go their own way might win out against any pragmatic, utilitarian choice. You're looking at it without the visceral, cultural stakes a Scottish person may have and hence it isn't persuading you. Oil, state benefits, control of taxation especially corporate, tourism, being part of a bigger direct market, etc. are all rational economic issues that should be considered by all Scots folk before they vote. However I've no clue how many will. I've met kneejerk Scottish nationalists who almost hate the English, I've met very anglocised Scottish folk who pay lip service to their nationality but prefer to remain British through and through, and I've even encountered people from the Gaelic fringe who consider Glasgow/Edinburgh etc. English in any sense that matters.

For all I know Scotland could prosper in independence, we can't know the future, but I think some amount of the voting, one way or another, will go down to something not quite rational.

The example of Ireland is a mixed bag. For much of the 19th C. Ireland was horribly misruled from England but in independence the Free State did not blossom the way it could and perhaps should have with the right leadership. There are no control groups of history but it sometimes seems Ireland would have been better off staying within the United Kingdom, if only from the economic perspective. However, there have been booms (and busts) and at one point in the not too distant past the Irish Republic was the envy of much bigger economies. But beyond pure economics there are other things that make a country work and a people thrive. Whatever Scotland chooses I hope the people there thrive.
19 Oct 2012 10:22 AM
Elendil's Heir

Quote:

Originally posted by The Original An Gadaí

Quote:

Originally posted by Elendil's Heir

Quote:

Originally posted by The Original An Gadaí

But you're not Scottish so they don't have to be.

True. I did not know that my non-Scottishness precluded my posting in this thread.

Sorry, I didn't mean to seem so dismissive... But beyond pure economics there are other things that make a country work and a people thrive. Whatever Scotland chooses I hope the people there thrive.

No worries, and I quite agree with your last two sentences in particular.
22 Oct 2012 04:57 AM
CatInASuit

I wonder what will happen to Berwick-upon-Tweed. The Scots have claimed it for a while, I wonder if they will ask for it again.
11 Nov 2013 11:32 PM
Elendil's Heir

The latest polling is a bit confusing: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...itics-24124631