Are paper books really going to disappear? How do you feel about it?

There's an interesting article in the New York Times today about Barnes and Noble, and whether or not they can survive the onslaught of e-books. Now personally, I have to hand it to them for developing a good e-reader, and highlighting it in their stores, vs. the Borders approach in which they had one available, but didn't develop it, own it, support it, know anything about it, or attempt to sell it to you even if you were interested. I'm guessing that the retailers who survive this shift will be the ones who attempt to embrace the new technology rather than try to pretend it's not happening.

But even if B&N and Borders both survive, will their business model in 5 or 10 years look anything like the one they have now? Will there be actual books you can display in a store that people will want to look at? Or will the entire book business someday go online, mostly as electronic downloads, with the few paper books being sold the Amazon way?

Personally, I'll be sad if bookstores go away, even if I am contributing to their demise by owning a B&N nook, which I do love for it's convenience. I haven't stopped reading real books, although I will admit that most of them are library checkouts vs. purchases. There's something about browsing the covers, reading a flap, and finding just the thing to take home and savor just isn't the same with an e-book. But...I've resigned myself that someday that experience may disappear. Do you think that books and bookstores will soon be a thing of the past? Is there any way to revive them? Or do we have to resign ourselves to their inevitable disappearance?

I don't have an electronic reading device of any sort. I'm actually pretty resistant to the idea. I love reading, but part of it is loving books as actual physical objects. Especially books I've owned for years and enjoy periodically rereading. They're like old jeans: worn around the edges, and I know exactly how they'll fit. They're comfort brain food.

Also, I check books out from the library for most of my recreational reading. Is there a system to rent e-books for a period of time? I would have no interest in trying to afford buying all the novels that I now check out from the library.

Some libraries do have e-books you can check out, but mine doesn't seem to be one of them.

Artifex, I am with you on loving books, I love them too. I have a bit of a system that determines which books I buy in hard copy, which books I check out from the library, and which books I check out from the library. It's roughly based on how long they are, whether or not I think I'll reread them or want to loan them out, and whether it's a light read vs. a heavier one, if that makes sense. Some books just seem made for the e-reader, some not.

Probably the best thing about the e-reader is that you can carry a bunch of books around with you, all at the same time. I love that! And, being able to get a book in about 30 seconds if you want to. I have trouble delaying gratification. ;)

What percentage of sales are e-books vs. paper books at this point? I find it hard to believe 10 years will be enough time for B&N to seriously suffer especially as B&N and Borders are already effectively the last two standing at this point. I suspect that Amazon and various on-line orders and Walmarts types offering the really fast movers cheap are hurting the brick and mortar book stores that remain more than E-Books. The fact that B&N is the #2 on-line book seller should help them last a lot longer than Borders.

Artifex, there is a system to borrow E-Books from the Library but I don't know the details yet. I believe Myrnalene is already using it where see is. If so hopefully she'll go into some details on it.

I really prefer a book to the readers, so I will be one of the hold-outs if the decline of paper is swift. Odd though as I was one of the early ones to give up on Newspapers but that had a lot to do with Gannet.

I love books as well and am a big advocate for the library, but I think dwindling resources and rising gas prices are already driving e-books, since getting books published is harder than it used to be.

As usual for the genre's publishers, the romance genre has been adapting quickly to the changing environment. Small upstart companies like Samhain, Torquere, and some others have not only popped up, but survived and seemingly are expanding their business using a mostly e-book platform. Harlequin regularly publishes e-books and, in my libraries e-book catalogue, half of them are historical romances.

The one thing I don't think they've caught on yet, like when they first started selling digital music, is that people do not want to pay the same price (or a higher price) for an e-book as they would an actual physical book. I think there's a concept of digital not being as permanent as a physical object. As it stands now I think the e-book market hasn't exploded exactly because of the price.

Why would I pay seven dollars for an e-book I can buy physically for the same price?

But there's certain books that can't be replaced; crafting books, photo books, etc etc.

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Originally posted by Panther Squad

I think there's a concept of digital not being as permanent as a physical object. As it stands now I think the e-book market hasn't exploded exactly because of the price.

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I agree completely, both on the perception of digital as being less substantial, and on the cost. E-books don't require paper, ink, shipping, stocking, etc., so why can't they cost less? If I'm going to shell out for the reader, I'd like there to be savings somewhere.

That would be awesome if I could check an e-book out from the library - googling, the SLC library doesn't seem to have that available. (Shame, because the city library is otherwise generally awesome.)

e-book prices started out lower, but have been slowly rising as the popularity of e-books has risen. I wouldn't trade my Sony for everything, especially since having a large number of personal belongings where I am now isn't realistic. I still love books but have started purchasing mostly hardcovers as paperback prices have risen. If I don't deem it worth buying in hardcover, it's an e-book. The same thing applies to DVD vs BluRay purchases for me. Purchasing only BR discs has seriously cut down on my movie purchasing.

Maybe I'm just getting old.

Yeah, I've noticed the prices of e-books are higher. Not too long ago a regular best-selling type novel was usually $9.99, and since I got my nook they mostly seem to be around $12.99. Which, kinda sucks and I don't really understand the reason for it, other than the charge more because they can.

Mostly because they can. Their loss. I make enough that I can buy them (and still do on occasion), but I've turned to torrenting just on principle. My favourite publisher is still Baen (scifi books), as their distribution/pricing are spot on. I've been a customer of theirs for years and have spent way too much money, but never regret it. http://www.webscription.net Check it out, if just to see how they work their distribution models. They sell monthly sets of 6 books for $15, some are brand new, others are older.

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Originally posted by hobbler

I still love books but have started purchasing mostly hardcovers as paperback prices have risen. If I don't deem it worth buying in hardcover, it's an e-book.

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This is a similar philosophy to how I'm approaching rebuilding my library. Anything I'd have as a paperback is an e-book--and my reader is about the size of a paperback, so I can carry it with me just like I would a book--but things I really want to cherish and keep are going to still be hardcovers.

It might be harder to find good bookstores in coming years, but there's a specific experience to going to a bookstore that the Internet and e-readers can't recreate. There is just a visceral experience to being surrounded by physical books. The smell, the feel, the look.

Ultimately, I imagine most of them won't survive, but some will at least until the older generation dies out and all that's left is people with no real emotional attachment to the physical idea of a book.

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Originally posted by hobbler

Mostly because they can. Their loss. I make enough that I can buy them (and still do on occasion), but I've turned to torrenting just on principle. My favourite publisher is still Baen (scifi books), as their distribution/pricing are spot on. I've been a customer of theirs for years and have spent way too much money, but never regret it. http://www.webscription.net Check it out, if just to see how they work their distribution models. They sell monthly sets of 6 books for $15, some are brand new, others are older.

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Yeah, it is their loss. Even at $2-3 more per book, I'm becoming a lot more selective about what I purchase vs. checking it out from the library.

I'm in agreeance with you and Zuul that e-books will mostly replace purchases of soft covers...really, they serve the same function, which is usually a more impulse buy for fun, vs. a book I'd want to keep forever. But pricing the e-book the same as the paperback doesn't seem right to me, so that means more trips to the library instead of shelling out the dough.

At our store meeting (I work at B&N) back in December, my manager said that we weren't looking for books to go completely by the wayside anytime in the near future. Actually, if anything, we'll be condensing our music department, since that's the area that's really suffered in the wake of digital sales. In all likelihood, if the model he's heard batted about holds, we'll go to fewer copies of more titles, condense music and Bargain, and expand our digital and accessory collection.

In one of my classes last semester, we discussed the impending downfall of the newspaper and magazine industry. The general idea was that books are not necessarily going to go as quickly (if they go at all), because books cover a lot more territory. I might read all my novels on my Nook, but I still have to buy paper text books, paper bound graphic novels, and so forth.

As far as what I think about my Nook, I really love it. Everything I've purchased has been at least a dollar cheaper than the paper book (and don't get me started on the freebies, which account for a third of my digital collection), and I can still wade through my room without any new piles of books cropping up.

At our store meeting (I work at B&N) back in December, my manager said that we weren't looking for books to go completely by the wayside anytime in the near future. Actually, if anything, we'll be condensing our music department, since that's the area that's really suffered in the wake of digital sales. In all likelihood, if the model he's heard batted about holds, we'll go to fewer copies of more titles, condense music and Bargain, and expand our digital and accessory collection.

In one of my classes last semester, we discussed the impending downfall of the newspaper and magazine industry. The general idea was that books are not necessarily going to go as quickly (if they go at all), because books cover a lot more territory. I might read all my novels on my Nook, but I still have to buy paper text books, paper bound graphic novels, and so forth.

As far as what I think about my Nook, I really love it. Everything I've purchased has been at least a dollar cheaper than the paper book (and don't get me started on the freebies, which account for a third of my digital collection), and I can still wade through my room without any new piles of books cropping up.

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Originally posted by Marsilia

I might read all my novels on my Nook, but I still have to buy paper text books, paper bound graphic novels, and so forth.

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There are already universities using e-textbooks and I think the introduction of color e-ink in the next few years or an explosion in popularity for things like the iPad could take a chunk out of graphic novels.

Those things might be bought as books for now, but I have no doubt they'll be changed by e-readers same as any other publication.

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Originally posted by Zuul

There are already universities using e-textbooks and I think the introduction of color e-ink in the next few years or an explosion in popularity for things like the iPad could take a chunk out of graphic novels.

Those things might be bought as books for now, but I have no doubt they'll be changed by e-readers same as any other publication.

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Maybe I'm wrong or maybe it is already a thing of the past but I thought half of the comic book and graphic novel sales were by people that keep and collect them? If true that would seem to indicate they will keep going.


As to magazines? Are they being hit anywhere near as hard as Newpapers? It seems like the mags are doing OK and an E-model will work for many of them also.

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Originally posted by What Exit?

As to magazines? Are they being hit anywhere near as hard as Newpapers? It seems like the mags are doing OK and an E-model will work for many of them also.

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I'm not sure on a general level, but there were several big magazines that folded about a year ago (They were all part of the same publishing company, but still....) and we've been slowly chipping at the number of magazines we carry on site. I think a lot of what we have these days is strictly so that people will have something to look at while they drink their coffee.

I remember that and for some reason I thought it had more to do with the company being somewhat foolish rather than a downturn comparable to the newspaper industry. I'm going off to look for articles on Magazine trends. Now I'm curious.

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Originally posted by What Exit?

Maybe I'm wrong or maybe it is already a thing of the past but I thought half of the comic book and graphic novel sales were by people that keep and collect them? If true that would seem to indicate they will keep going.

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While there are people who collect comics, they are most definitely not 50% of the graphic novel reading public.

I don't collect them and I don't particularly like having them around (see my preference for hardcovers above), so I'd way prefer them in an e-book format. Most of my graphic novel dork friends feel pretty similarly. Lacking an official outlet for this desire and everybody loving free stuff, more and more graphic novels and comic books are showing up pirated online within hours of their release.

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Originally posted by Zuul

I don't collect them and I don't particularly like having them around (see my preference for hardcovers above), so I'd way prefer them in an e-book format.

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So, how do you feel about hardcover graphic novels? :smug:

I imagine that books will continue along the lines vinyl has. Aficionados still buy vinyl and IIRC vinyl sales are now increasing, albeit from a much lower base than at its height of popularity as a music format. With the cost of printing so low I imagine it will be worthwhile doing a print run for many years to come for most popular titles even if and when ereaders reach iPod level ubiquity. Books also function as ornaments, they decorate a room in a way a wall of CDs never has. I am a bit sad that books are going electronic, I owe my livelihood thus far to the book trade.

I can only find one fairly good article so far but it does sound like single issue sales are in a downward spiral. Subscriptions and the Weeklies are apparently doing better.

Here is one part of my research so far: http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009...lation-figures
A few blurbs here and there have added to it.

Just some specific Mags: http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2010...-magazine-abcs

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Originally posted by Marsilia

So, how do you feel about hardcover graphic novels? :smug:

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You can guess the answer to that. :smug:

Jim, sales aside there's also the issue of advertising. More and more companies are paying for ad space online rather than in print publication. Magazines might make enough to distribute from their sales, but it's the ads that actually pay the bills.

If they disappear, that'll make my own more valuable. Bring it on.

Seriously tho', it wouldn't surprise me if one day they stop being physically printed. If sales are going down consistently, most groups involved in their manufacture will shift their investment elsewhere. They don't do it for the good of book-worms.

We might also see a major distribution model change. B&N has been playing with the idea for years now as far as I know. The idea of On Demand printing. No more need to ship and pre-print books. The books would be printed and bound as needed and allow for far larger catalogs. The little I know of this indicates that authors/publishers are worried about getting paid and the printers/binders might not be very good yet. But another 10 years could see a big change in attitude and tech.

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Originally posted by What Exit?

We might also see a major distribution model change. B&N has been playing with the idea for years now as far as I know. The idea of On Demand printing. No more need to ship and pre-print books. The books would be printed and bound as needed and allow for far larger catalogs. The little I know of this indicates that authors/publishers are worried about getting paid and the printers/binders might not be very good yet. But another 10 years could see a big change in attitude and tech.

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I find that whole idea fascinating and wonder how it would/will play out. However, somewhat similar, public CD burning booths, something that was predicted in the 1980s never came to market (that I know of). IE you access something like an iTunes catalogue, select your tunes and the machine burns you a disc. I always thought these would be great. Even with various web based options I think there are some people who would use such a service.

Vaguely relevant, a blog post of mine from Dec, 2009. I think I may have posted it before though.


I have been thinking about this topic for a while as I am involved in the traditional bookselling industry and I have noticed many stores here in Ireland are now pushing eBook readers by the likes of Sony, (see left) Amazon, and others as gift items for Christmas. These devices are designed for one to be able to read books on, they are mobile, usually have a good battery life and use e-ink that allow use over long periods without eyestrain. There are several reasons why I believe that the iPod moment for eBook readers has not come and might well be a long way off.

By iPod moment, I mean the point when MP3 players went from a vaguely nerdy curio into being a proper mass market item in the period after 2003. This was largely down to the products, stylings and marketing of Apple and its range of iPods. These products captured the public imagination (and sales) in a way that previous efforts by Rio, Creative and others had not. Apple still maintains the lion's share of sales in this market even though it was a relative late comer.

Similar to the way that video calling and multimedia messaging were aggressively pushed as the next big application after text messaging in the mobile phone market it seems that hardware manufacturers are trying to push eBook readers as the literary industry equivalent of the iPod. They are hoping to make them must-have mass market products. However, for a number of reasons an eReader, of whatever hue, is not that similar to an iPod.

Both types of device are designed primarily for the consumption of one or other form of audio/visual media. In the case of an iPod, sound files and in latter generations, video files, in the case of an eBook reader, text files. Both are portable, designed for use on the move. Each allows the user to carry a hitherto ungainly amount of information. That is to say, the iPod stands in for a bulky CD or vinyl collection, the eReader stands in for a full bookshelf.

The differences between the two come down to the different ways in which we usually consume the information they contain. Both are designed to be mobile, hwoever while one can listen to an iPod while out for a walk, cycling etc. it is unusual (although not unheard of) to see a person walking down the street reading a book or newspaper, for obvious reasons. Music can be consumed passively in a way text cannot be so ultimately an iPod or similar device is useful in more situations than an eReader can be.

While songs (the primary but not exclusive use for iPods, others include podcasts, audiobooks, and other spoken word files) typically last something like four minutes and an album clocks in at under and hour, a typical novel would take the average reader hours to read. It is less immediately useful to have a large number of books on hand in a device than having a library of music. Also, while song files can be shuffled, playlists made, I would hazard the guess that most people read one book at a time, with no desire to shuffle from one book to another.

There is also the crucial issue that publishers, having seen what has happened to the music industry, are more wary of allowing their catalogue to be digitised, afraid that piracy will destroy their revenue. Indeed some academic publishers have steadfastly refused to allow their publications to be issued in a digital format. With regard to piracy there is a practical difference between an MP3 and an eBook. While CDs are easy to rip, it is time consuming in extremis to create "homemade" eBooks from extant textbooks.

Technological convergence is another factor that may well put paid to the idea an ebook Reader as a discreet device. Netbooks, Internet-ready phones such as the iPhone or ones using Android all include amongst a myriad of other things the functionality of an eReader, except that they don't include e-ink screens. It is possible that when battery life on these types of portable devices increases that this will sound the deathknell for both a dedicated eReader and iPod-style devices.

eBook reading devices have clear potential in an academic/research setting where students and staff may well have large reading lists but I am not convinced that for example, the Sony eReader's mass market potential is anyway near that of the Apple iPod and its competitors. Who knows though, it might become the great unused Christmas present of '09, '10 or '11 though.

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Originally posted by The Original An Gadaí

I find that whole idea fascinating and wonder how it would/will play out. However, somewhat similar, public CD burning booths, something that was predicted in the 1980s never came to market (that I know of). IE you access something like an iTunes catalogue, select your tunes and the machine burns you a disc. I always thought these would be great. Even with various web based options I think there are some people who would use such a service.

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I suspect it never happened with CDs as soon enough everyone knew someone that could burn CDs cheaply and fast. Much faster than tape.

The home book printing & binding machine may never exist and even with a laser printer you don't really get something that is a good replacement for a book. With an Inkjet it would be cheaper to buy the book.

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Originally posted by What Exit?

I suspect it never happened with CDs as soon enough everyone knew someone that could burn CDs cheaply and fast. Much faster than tape.

The home book printing & binding machine may never exist and even with a laser printer you don't really get something that is a good replacement for a book. With an Inkjet it would be cheaper to buy the book.

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There was a window of 5-10 years where it was technically possible and cd burners weren't yet ubiquitous. Also you still had to find the music, which pre-napster wasn't all that easy to do, beyond college campuses. If someone had rolled it out in 1993 it might have been a huge success. Although IIRC earlier CD burners were unreliable so perhaps it wasn't as viable as I am surmising.

I guess there was a window.

FTR: Pre-Napster and even pre-CDs we had lots of mix tapes and copies of tapes and albums.

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Originally posted by What Exit?

I guess there was a window.

FTR: Pre-Napster and even pre-CDs we had lots of mix tapes and copies of tapes and albums.

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Oh I know, I did it myself. I loved making mixtapes for people and made mix cds for people until even that became old hat.

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Originally posted by Panther Squad

The one thing I don't think they've caught on yet, like when they first started selling digital music, is that people do not want to pay the same price (or a higher price) for an e-book as they would an actual physical book. I think there's a concept of digital not being as permanent as a physical object. As it stands now I think the e-book market hasn't exploded exactly because of the price.

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I think in the long run e-books will replace much of the printed book market, but before they really take over there are a few problems to be solved. A big issue and one that has a direct influence on the perceived value of e-books is the long-term reliability. The way e-books are sold now there is always a significant risk that ten years from now everything you bought will be useless and worthless. There are ways to solve that, but it will take some time until we are actually there.

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Originally posted by Marsilia

I might read all my novels on my Nook, but I still have to buy paper text books, paper bound graphic novels, and so forth.

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I am not so sure about text books. My subject may not be representative because it is relatively new as a whole and it is pretty open towards technology, but we used very few books. You could very easily get by without buying any book at all. Occasionally you need a chapter from the library here or there, but it isn't much. And that is today when so many things aren't available in electronic form.

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Originally posted by What Exit?

We might also see a major distribution model change. B&N has been playing with the idea for years now as far as I know. The idea of On Demand printing. No more need to ship and pre-print books. The books would be printed and bound as needed and allow for far larger catalogs. The little I know of this indicates that authors/publishers are worried about getting paid and the printers/binders might not be very good yet. But another 10 years could see a big change in attitude and tech.

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It would be interesting to see if there is a market for the combination of print-on-demand and e-books. You could separate the content from the medium. You choose your preferred binding and choose or design your covers and have your book printed according to your specifications. That way you have your aesthetic experience and your bookshelf might look nicer than ever before.

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Originally posted by Feirefiz

I am not so sure about text books. My subject may not be representative because it is relatively new as a whole and it is pretty open towards technology, but we used very few books. You could very easily get by without buying any book at all. Occasionally you need a chapter from the library here or there, but it isn't much. And that is today when so many things aren't available in electronic form.

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When I was in college (all of three months ago) there were several classes where I never needed books. E-texts, presentations from our professors, videos, etc all supplemented that stuff. I spent more time downloading things than reading anything on paper.

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Originally posted by Feirefiz

The way e-books are sold now there is always a significant risk that ten years from now everything you bought will be useless and worthless. There are ways to solve that, but it will take some time until we are actually there.

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This is starting to be addressed by several retailers. Baen books, mentioned above, has always had an unlimited download policy: i.e. you buy your book via your account, and you can download it again and again as many times as you need. Get a new reader that uses a different format? Download again. Using a laptop out on business trips, now? Download again.

Sony's ebook store seems to have gone to this model, too - but I've seen nothing explicitly stating that.

Yes, there are potential losses from piracy. OTOH, Baen's been at this for over 15 years now, and have found that their liberal download policy garners them more customers. Last I'd heard (and this was before the 2009 date referenced in Sarah's article) they were making as much from their ebooks as they were from all their Canadian sales.

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Originally posted by OtakuLoki

This is starting to be addressed by several retailers. Baen books, mentioned above, has always had an unlimited download policy: i.e. you buy your book via your account, and you can download it again and again as many times as you need. Get a new reader that uses a different format? Download again. Using a laptop out on business trips, now? Download again.

Sony's ebook store seems to have gone to this model, too - but I've seen nothing explicitly stating that.

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That's a good first step, but I think it takes more to make e-books equal to printed books in that respect. So far that is only current policy or a vague promise at best. You could have formal guarantees and plans that cover some of the many questions on this issue. How long will you be able to re-download? Which formats will be offered in the future? How open and wide-spread will those formats be? What happens when the shop changes significantly or the company goes out of business altogether? Those are all things that can be solved but it will take some time until the market is more mature.

Well, the fact that all the reader manufacturers have finally gotten together and accepted the EPUB format as their standard is going to help with a lot of that. Not everything, of course, but at least some of the challenges can start being addressed in a systemic manner.

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Originally posted by OtakuLoki

Well, the fact that all the reader manufacturers have finally gotten together and accepted the EPUB format as their standard is going to help with a lot of that. Not everything, of course, but at least some of the challenges can start being addressed in a systemic manner.

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Yes, EPUB is huge step. Now we only have to get everyone to support it. (Amazon, I am looking at you :Shake:)

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Originally posted by Feirefiz

Yes, EPUB is huge step. Now we only have to get everyone to support it. (Amazon, I am looking at you :Shake:)

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I'm fine with the Kindle being super duper proprietary. Makes my job easier.

You mean Sony is ahead of someone in giving up proprietary file formats? A little corner of my world just shattered. :(

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Originally posted by Marsilia

I'm fine with the Kindle being super duper proprietary. Makes my job easier.

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Yeah, I imagine it does. The KIndle has a head start due to being the first big name e-reader attached to a bookstore, but the Nook using EPUB and having an actual physical store attached to it does look promising. These are exciting times.

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Originally posted by Feirefiz

A big issue and one that has a direct influence on the perceived value of e-books is the long-term reliability. The way e-books are sold now there is always a significant risk that ten years from now everything you bought will be useless and worthless. There are ways to solve that, but it will take some time until we are actually there.

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Originally posted by OtakuLoki

This is starting to be addressed by several retailers. Baen books, mentioned above, has always had an unlimited download policy: i.e. you buy your book via your account, and you can download it again and again as many times as you need. Get a new reader that uses a different format? Download again. Using a laptop out on business trips, now? Download again.

Sony's ebook store seems to have gone to this model, too - but I've seen nothing explicitly stating that.

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One of my sales lines with the Nook is "You bought it, so it's yours forever." B&N has reader apps for most of the smart phones, Mac/PC, the iPad, and the iPod Touch. You can have readers on all those devices (and a Nook) synced up to the same account, and any book you download to one will be available on all of them. They also keep a list on the web site of all the books a particular customer has downloaded, specifically for such a situation, or an upgrade to a new device, or a replacement for the Nook you ran over with your car, or whatever.