[Ed. Note: This is the first post in an ongoing discussion of the recent events in Egypt.]
Following the riots and governmental changeover in Tunisia, the unrest has spread to Egypt with riots in the street, communications and internet cut and the government cracking down on protesters. If the same course is taken, then it is likely that President Mubarak will leave the country soon.
This could cause a few problems given that Egypt was one of the more stable of the Middle East Countries, which actually had some kind of democracy in place. It is currently autocratic, but the main opposition see this as a chance to remove him.
If it does, the question to be asked is will Egypt fall into flames or will it survive relatively intact?
There is also the effect it could have on other countries in the area who are watching this to see what happens. If Egypt is force to change its government by the will of the people, could this happen elsewhere? Will this destabilize the Peace Process and which other countries are likely to be at risk?
Strangely enough, most people are being told it is safe to still travel to the country and just to avoid the demonstrations, unlike Tunisia where it was suggested that people should leave at the first opportunity.
Comments
I still really doubt this is going to unseat Mubarak, it might if we're all lucky cause some reforms but overall Egypt unlike Tunisia is a fairly stable country and economy.
What a mess. It was only a matter of time, though. These things, and by things I mean "aging leaders who weren't total dictators but who squelched freedom and hung on to power for decades, blind to the will of the people" generally don't end well.
Reminds me of what Indonesia went through with the end of the Suharto reign.