What will happen if Egypt's current ruler falls?

[Ed. Note: This is the first post in an ongoing discussion of the recent events in Egypt.]

Following the riots and governmental changeover in Tunisia, the unrest has spread to Egypt with riots in the street, communications and internet cut and the government cracking down on protesters. If the same course is taken, then it is likely that President Mubarak will leave the country soon.

This could cause a few problems given that Egypt was one of the more stable of the Middle East Countries, which actually had some kind of democracy in place. It is currently autocratic, but the main opposition see this as a chance to remove him.

If it does, the question to be asked is will Egypt fall into flames or will it survive relatively intact?

There is also the effect it could have on other countries in the area who are watching this to see what happens. If Egypt is force to change its government by the will of the people, could this happen elsewhere? Will this destabilize the Peace Process and which other countries are likely to be at risk?

Strangely enough, most people are being told it is safe to still travel to the country and just to avoid the demonstrations, unlike Tunisia where it was suggested that people should leave at the first opportunity.

Comments

I really don't believe President Mubarak will fall. If he did I sadly doubt democracy will break out. Eqypt will end up in a civil war and the radical Islamic groups will either win out or largely wreck the country at least. As a bad economy will make it easier for them to win.

I still really doubt this is going to unseat Mubarak, it might if we're all lucky cause some reforms but overall Egypt unlike Tunisia is a fairly stable country and economy.

Tunisia's unrest started because of massive government nepotism and corruption. Islam played almost no role in it. The majority of the "reforms" the radical Islamists want in Egypt would help them use democracy to get rid of democracy. Do you really think that the people of Egypt would be better off if the Islamic Brotherhood were in charge? How about the people of Saudi? Look how well Iran's democracy is working.

Quote Originally posted by What Exit? View post
I really don't believe President Mubarak will fall.
Any particular reason why you doubt it'll happen? When I read the news this morning it looked like it was getting worse. This is fairly long, but gives some background in addition to current events.

Because he has a strong police force and loyalty from the army and I am sure the US & UK will actually support him out of fear of losing a fairly good ally to Islamic fundamentalists.

From what I understand, his desire to have his son replace him has weakened some of his military support, though, so his position isn't as strong as it had been. Some of the police stripped off their uniforms and joined in the protests, as well. I really, sincerely hope that the Islamic Brotherhood doesn't gain control.

Best case is he keeps control by putting in democratic reform. Pull a bit of a Franco.

Somebody posted what's supposed to be commentary from a woman in Alexandria. I'm a little dubious about it. Assuming this woman is really in Alexandria and reporting things accurately, it's still only one person's viewpoint. She might be correct about what she's seen and still be inaccurate by assuming what she's seen reflects the whole situation.

This related report is fascinating! http://blogs.forbes.com/andygreenber...bles-to-egypt/

Wow, that is fascinating, AG.

I think this spells the end for Mubarak. What happens next is anyone's guess, but I'll speculate that the Moslem Brotherhood may predominate in whatever government comes next.

What a mess. It was only a matter of time, though. These things, and by things I mean "aging leaders who weren't total dictators but who squelched freedom and hung on to power for decades, blind to the will of the people" generally don't end well.

Reminds me of what Indonesia went through with the end of the Suharto reign.