In which I point and laugh at someone nerdier than myself

[AllWalker]

Maths genius discovers why singles can't find love

Long story short, this guy used mathematics to calculate the odds of finding his dream woman. The odds come out to be 1 in 285,000, when using the Drake Equation, a tool used to estimate the number of civilisations currently existing in the galaxy.

But the number doesn't look right. Consider:

1) His thesis is titled "Why I Don't Have a Girlfriend"
2) He is an economist
3) He seems to believe the Drake Equation is useful, considering reasonable estimates for the constants give the number of civilisations in the galaxy ranging from 0 to 100,000.
4) He has told the media about this, despite knowing the media would twist his words. For example, it seems that number is for any given night, not over a lifetime.
5) Last name is Backus.
6)

"The research may sound depressing to people looking for love, but the good news for singles is, it's probably not your fault,"

Gee, thanks a lot.

Based on the above, I calculate the odds of him finding love at 1 in seventeen trillion.

[OtakuLoki]

The truly idiotic thing is that he has since found a girlfriend, who met all his requirements.

So, either his thesis is correct and he beat the 1:285,000 odds of finding her; or he had his head up his ass.

I know which of those two premises Occam's Razor suggests would be more likely to be true.


ETA: Of course this does provide anecdotal evidence for the age-old wisdom that the true nerd not only has no life, but can prove it mathematically.

[Revs]

Wow, good thing I'm not good at math otherwise I may be able to prove how dull and lonely my life is.

[kk fusion]

In his "Why I Don't Have a Girlfriend" thesis, Backus found that of the 30 million women in the UK, only 26 would be suitable girlfriends.

What's a thesis in this context? Did he actually get academic credit for this?

[Feirefiz]

There is one thing that struck me about his calculations. I don't know whether I am just easy to please or his numbers are a bit off.

For physical attractiveness he assumed a ratio of 1 in 20. If the equation is supposed to make sense you have to assume that the variables are independent. That mean that one in twenty would also mean one in twenty among those that meet the other criteria.

That seems horribly low to me.

I mean I could believe that one person in twenty is so physically attractive that they seem immediately desirable without looking any further. However I don't buy the idea that 19 out of 20 aren't attractive enough to qualify even if they are otherwise perfect matches.

Does that ratio seem right to you?

What's a thesis in this context? Did he actually get academic credit for this?

I hope not, but for the sake of scientific credibility he turned it into a PDF and everybody knows that once something has made it into a PDF it is almost as good as published.

http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/ec...girlfriend.pdf

[kk fusion]

I mean I could believe that one person in twenty is so physically attractive that they seem immediately desirable without looking any further. However I don't buy the idea that 19 out of 20 aren't attractive enough to qualify even if they are otherwise perfect matches.

Does that ratio seem right to you?

He's certainly a perfectionist. Look at how much effort he put into that paper.

[Zuul]

I mean I could believe that one person in twenty is so physically attractive that they seem immediately desirable without looking any further. However I don't buy the idea that 19 out of 20 aren't attractive enough to qualify even if they are otherwise perfect matches.

Does that ratio seem right to you?

No, it doesn't, but it's depressingly typical. I imagine he'd be a horrible boyfriend with an attitude like that.

"Yes, yes, you're a brilliant philanthropist PhD candidate, but honey, you've got a little worry wrinkle forming between your eyes. I'm afraid you're just not good enough for me anymore."

[Hatshepsut]

Damn, he's cute.

Of course, I married an adorable nerd from MIT, so my taste in these matters is fairly well established.