Pod People, Daybreak on Day 3

[AllWalker]

special ed makes a good point. This is no longer he said/she said, now that Angel is claiming to know the truth. Since there are no Miller-type roles (there aren't, are there?) this means either two Scum are throwing themselves onto the fire, or they are telling the truth.

At this stage I see it as a strong chance we had a Power Role out a Scum, and they desperately tried to drag said power role down with them. It is a good gambit to play when cornered, after all.

Unvote Vox
Vote Ulla

If Ulla is innocent, we go Scum hunting.

[Zsofia]

I agree with special ed - either one person is lying or two people are. Pretty much everybody operates on Lynch All Liars, so if scum lie about something we'll certainly verify, they lose two people? Doesn't seem rational.

unvote Vox
vote Ulla

[Julie]

Vote Count:

Total Ulla: 6 (Vox Imperatoris, special ed, AngeloftheNorth, Myrnalene, AllWalker, Zsofia)

Vox Imperatoris: 5 (Total Ulla, paulwhoisaghost, Lucifer, sublight, [del:31yzuq11]What Exit?[/del:31yzuq11]/PrecambrianMollusc)

[paulwhoisaghost]

Well... if we are being deceived we get 2 scum for the cost of one town... so... sorry Ulla.

Unvote Vox
Vote Ulla

[Rabid Renaissance]

Vote Ulla

Vox needs to be spanked on the town square, whether or not he is Town.

Assuming that she comes up as a podling of some kind, I would also like to take a closer look at Paul, for this post:

There would be no need to false claim if one of them has been recruited. So I doubt we would see a counter claim.

I was just about to bring up the fact that while we are only seeing nilla deaths, it just means that the odds are in favor of a power role being recruited.


So.... the psychoanalyst can be recruited..... the town drunk cannot. That being said, unless I see a counter claim against Ulla.....


VOTE VOX

It is a very seductive argument in the case of Ulla lying and a true town drunk decides not to counter-claim, but it is deceptive in that it completely omits the associated risks of that blindspot. It is the kind of argument that I can totally see a scum making in the hopes that if they can't get the true Town Drunk to claim, they might at least help get Vox lynched.

Vox needs to be spanked on the town square, whether or not he is Town.

Also assuming Ulla comes up scum, she gets a public spanking too...unless there is much hand-wringing about making an honest linguistic mistake in the scum thread. (with one of these instead of one of these.

[Rabid Renaissance]

ack. sorry about leaving that vox vote color in there from paul.

[Winston Smith]

Well, looks like Total Ulla almost pulled a fast one on us. I'm glad we were able to sort this out before it was too late (provided this doesn't turn out to be the ol' double-double-whammy, but at this point I don't even want to contemplate that possibility). I agree with RabRen that Vox needs to be slapped with a wet trout later for setting this all in motion without a little warning or discussion.

Unvote Vox
Vote Ulla

[cowgirl]

What?!?! Another SUB????

I've never seen anything like this.

Hold on a minute. Winston, I can't find your name in that player list you refer to. Who are you subbing for?

[Winston Smith]

What?!?! Another SUB????

I've never seen anything like this.

Hold on a minute. Winston, I can't find your name in that player list you refer to. Who are you subbing for?

I'm not subbing, I changed my user name on the board from Lucifer to Winston Smith. I considered making an announcement in the thread, but (wrongly) figured everyone would figure it out on their own. Sorry.

[Julie]

Player List:

1. sublight
2. AllWalker ([del:2mepi3xl]Claptree[/del:2mepi3xl])
3. PrecambrianMollusc ([del:2mepi3xl]What Exit?[/del:2mepi3xl])
4. Winston Smith (was Lucifer)
5. Vox Imperatoris
7. Zsofia
8. cowgirl
9. special ed ([del:2mepi3xl]jali[/del:2mepi3xl])
10. AngeloftheNorth ([del:2mepi3xl]pedescribe[/del:2mepi3xl])
12. Rabid Renaissance
13. Myrnalene
14. paulwhoisaghost
16. Total Ulla


The Dead:

Day 1: 11. [del:2mepi3xl]One and only Wanderers[/del:2mepi3xl]--Vanilla Town (lynch)
Night 1: 17. [del:2mepi3xl]special ed[/del:2mepi3xl]--Vanilla Town (NK)
Day 2: 15. [del:2mepi3xl]Angel of the North[/del:2mepi3xl]--Vanilla Town (lynch)
Night 2: 6. [del:2mepi3xl]AllWalker[/del:2mepi3xl]--Vanilla Town (NK)

[sublight]

Either:
Angel and Vox are lying Scum who are attempting to:

• Lynch Ulla.[/*:m:26itp5sk]
• And Angel is also attempting to get another Power role to claim, but wait, that could be the Town Drunk, which Ulla has already claimed.[/*:m:26itp5sk]
• So, in essence, they'd be sacrificing 2 Scum to get Ulla lynched now. Since, if Ula comes back as Town, then we'd know Angel and Vox are lying.[/*:m:26itp5sk]
• We have to assume Vox's motivation was to trade herself for Ulla and also hope to get the real psychoanalyst to claim[/*:m:26itp5sk]
• We also have to assume that Angel's motivation was to commit suicide with her Scum buddy, (and maybe she likes to have suicide :wink: )[/*:m:26itp5sk]

Ok, now this is concrete reasoning I can get behind.

UNVOTE: Vox

VOTE: Total Ulla

[special ed]

How about this interesting piece of WiFoM for everyone.

Assumptions:

• Ulla is Scum[/*:m:fmbcg1d1]
• Vox is Town[/*:m:fmbcg1d1]
• Angel is Scum[/*:m:fmbcg1d1]

How would things have played out differently?

• Angel, as Scum, would have known that Ulla was not the Town Drunk.[/*:m:fmbcg1d1]
• Angel would be earning some serious Townie Cred[/*:m:fmbcg1d1]
• Ulla was a goner anyway, either by being lynched or after Vox was lynched and came back Town[/*:m:fmbcg1d1]

Now, I still think it's more likely that Angel is Town, but wouldn't that be interesting?

[Rabid Renaissance]

I have been playing a very similar shell game with possible scenarios in my head.

[special ed]

I have been playing a very similar shell game with possible scenarios in my head.

I just wanted it out there since lately, I have a very short life expectancy.

There are of course, other plausible arrangements. I jsut wanted to be sure that an Ulla death as Scum doesn't confirm Angel. I think she might feel that way, but it's truly a null tell on her part.

[PrecambrianMollusc]

So, with Angel now half-claiming. This is the situation.

Either:
Angel and Vox are lying Scum who are attempting to:

• Lynch Ulla.[/*:m:f9a4u8w0]
• And Angel is also attempting to get another Power role to claim, but wait, that could be the Town Drunk, which Ulla has already claimed.[/*:m:f9a4u8w0]
• So, in essence, they'd be sacrificing 2 Scum to get Ulla lynched now. Since, if Ula comes back as Town, then we'd know Angel and Vox are lying.[/*:m:f9a4u8w0]
• We have to assume Vox's motivation was to trade herself for Ulla and also hope to get the real psychoanalyst to claim[/*:m:f9a4u8w0]
• We also have to assume that Angel's motivation was to commit suicide with her Scum buddy, (and maybe she likes to have suicide :wink: )[/*:m:f9a4u8w0]

Or:
Ulla is lying to try to save her Scummy life:

• We already know she was incorrect about her role PM.[/*:m:f9a4u8w0]
• She's admitted to reading part of her role PM incorrectly due to language difficulties, but she hasn't explained how such an experienced player read the role PM and claimed she was capable of doing what her role PM explicitly said she cannot do, in very plain English.[/*:m:f9a4u8w0]
• Ulla's motivation would only be to save attempt to save herself from a lynching for another Day and eliminate the Psychoanalyst on a Day when she was outed as Scum.[/*:m:f9a4u8w0]

Now, I don't feel I've been belligerent, despite the smudge made against me, but I might become belligerent if the rest of you continue to vote for Vox, when the dreadfully apparent Town move is to vote for Ulla.

I have a minor issue with the is post
You will get belligerent if people don't agree with you? I think there has been a reasonable case against Ulla but up until your last post it was hardly cut and dried as people were getting their heads around the claims and all possible scenarios, trying to shut down discussion with threats of belligerence because other opinions are out there is hardly pro town play.

Given the game set up I still have to wonder if the Scum figure they have to go balls out to get all the power roles exposed early, and if that means sacrificing one of their own, so be it. If Vox is a podded PA - he is of very little use to the scum as they have no idea who is who. With the exception of the current MPP and one other recruit other than Vox (if he is), they still don't know what role their unpodded recruits are yet, so if the podded PA has to make up investigations from this point on - they stand a serious risk of being wrong no matter who they pick and he would be exposed on the spot. Is a sacrifice that much of a loss?
My theory was (and big however coming up) Vox is a podded PA. Ulla didn't get recruited last night so they know who she is (one of two roles) and figured, what the hell lets burn one guy to get power role lynched and we have a night kill for any other power roles who get flushed in the process. Vox would get exposed in the process, but that would just shut discussion down for the whole next day as there was an obvious lynch target, which is a scum bonus.
Trouble is AON would also have to be a scum to claim(magic bag?) as she did, now if TU was an unsuccessful recruit, there is only the MPP and one other (vox?) so no way that AON could be scum unless she is the MPP and I really don't see the MPP coming out on a limb like that when Vox would eventually be exposed as a liar.
If Vox is scum and picked Ulla at random on a hope - then yeah both Vox and AON could be scum with the MPP lying low, going all out to flush power roles and got lucky or picked up on some breadcrumb from Ulla.
Trouble is things either do not working numbers wise and/or it is getting a little too complicated and all balls out to be realistic

On the Ulla side - I am not sure she is lying about the misunderstanding, she could well have misunderstood the wording in the role. The question is when did she misunderstand it, way back when they were handed out, or when she was under pressure fumbling around for a role claim.
Now many of the possible scenarios have been discussed.
Vox being scum requires a fair amount of complication.
Ulla being scum is pretty straightforward.

Unvote Vox
Vote Ulla

Vox - if you are the unpodded PA - the preceding several pages are why it is important to discuss lynches, not just vote based on a claim and move on. When all becomes clear the discussion here will be useful for future analysis, scum don't want meaningful discussion because it may expose a slip and recruits who don't know they are recruited may have to reverse their position taken now at a later date.

[special ed]

I have a minor issue with the is post
You will get belligerent if people don't agree with you? I think there has been a reasonable case against Ulla but up until your last post it was hardly cut and dried as people were getting their heads around the claims and all possible scenarios, trying to shut down discussion with threats of belligerence because other opinions are out there is hardly pro town play.

Sorry, I was just trying to funny. I wasn't sure where the accusation of me being belligerent came from, as I didn't feel I had been.

In my post, I was just trying to make light of the situation because it seemed that some people had equated disagreeing with the majority as being belligerent.

Obviously, if you've read my other posts, I'm maintaining that other things are possible, and they certainly are.

[PrecambrianMollusc]

I think it was my predecessor (what exit) who accused you of belligerence, which I disagreed with, just thought the line looked like you were trying to shut things down. All is cool in the world.

I agree that if Ulla is scum and Vox is town, it in no way proves AON with her bag. If I were the suspicious sort I'd say that keeping the claim options open to one of two roles allows a scum some wriggle room in case either the real TD or NR turns up dead tonight or in the future.

[AngeloftheNorth]

PMollusc, if you can prove to me that it benefits town more saying exactly which I am, the Town Drunk or the Nosy Reporter, I'll say so. The idea that I'm trying to leave wiggle room is ridiculous. I know which I am, I'm trying not to let the Pod People know.

[AngeloftheNorth]

Screw it. If someone else claims the other role that I'm not, then you'll claim my role is invalid. I am the Town Drunk, which is why I know Ulla isn't. I was trying to avoid being a target as much as possible but it's impossible in this clusterf*ck. At least this way maybe the NR won't have to claim.

[AngeloftheNorth]

*claim my role CLAIM is invalid.

[cowgirl]

Vote Ulla for reasons laid out by special ed and others above, best summarized by PrecambrianMollusc:

Vox being scum requires a fair amount of complication.
Ulla being scum is pretty straightforward.

No matter how this turns out, we will have a lot to go on toMorrow.

[special ed]

Screw it. If someone else claims the other role that I'm not, then you'll claim my role is invalid. I am the Town Drunk, which is why I know Ulla isn't. I was trying to avoid being a target as much as possible but it's impossible in this clusterf*ck. At least this way maybe the NR won't have to claim.

OK, how about your results then, please, now that you've full claimed.

[AngeloftheNorth]

My results aren't going to help us or my claim any, but I will share them.

Pedescribe investigated AngeloftheNorth1 on Night One. She had not been sampled.

He failed to investigate anyone on Night Two, which is why Julie subbed me in.

I will post the PM discussion between Julie and me over this if it's allowed...I haven't been able to find whether or not that's allowed as Julie posted the original PMs.

[AngeloftheNorth]

Julie answered me privately...I can reveal my PM that makes me the Town Drunk but not "my" investigation results. There's no point as she's already posted the Town Drunk PM.

[PrecambrianMollusc]

PMollusc, if you can prove to me that it benefits town more saying exactly which I am, the Town Drunk or the Nosy Reporter, I'll say so. The idea that I'm trying to leave wiggle room is ridiculous. I know which I am, I'm trying not to let the Pod People know.

Angel, I disagree with you about this being ridiculous, the soft claim and the attempt to obscure who you are to keep scum on their toes, however it's kind of a moot point right now and this is probably all a matter of personal play style etc. For what it is worth I find you slight more trust worthy now there is a full claim and we have something to hold you to and I don't think it has made the target on your head any bigger. It also helps our sheriff make a slightly more informed decision tonight as he/she attempts to figure out who to protect and out guess the scum
Really sucks if no night two investigation was submitted.
When does the day end?

[Julie]

Vote Count:

Total Ulla: 12 (Vox Imperatoris, special ed, AngeloftheNorth, Myrnalene, AllWalker, Zsofia, paulwhoisaghost, Rabid Renaissance, Winston Smith, sublight, PrecambrianMollusc, cowgirl)

Vox Imperatoris: 1 (Total Ulla)





Just under 3 hours to end of Day.

[AngeloftheNorth]

PMollusc, if you can prove to me that it benefits town more saying exactly which I am, the Town Drunk or the Nosy Reporter, I'll say so. The idea that I'm trying to leave wiggle room is ridiculous. I know which I am, I'm trying not to let the Pod People know.

Angel, I disagree with you about this being ridiculous, the soft claim and the attempt to obscure who you are to keep scum on their toes, however it's kind of a moot point right now and this is probably all a matter of personal play style etc. For what it is worth I find you slight more trust worthy now there is a full claim and we have something to hold you to and I don't think it has made the target on your head any bigger. It also helps our sheriff make a slightly more informed decision tonight as he/she attempts to figure out who to protect and out guess the scum
Really sucks if no night two investigation was submitted.
When does the day end?

Okay, PMollusc, I'm rereading and ridiculous is kind of a strong word. It is a play style difference and I get very frustrated because no one ever believes me when I'm telling the truth. I guess that's a form of PIS in itself...I know I'm telling the truth but you don't, so why should you believe me?

It does suck that no night two investigation was submitted, but I vow if I live through the night a night three one will be. In fact, I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts on who I should investigate. Which is not to say that I'll necessarily follow them, but I'd like to hear them.

[paulwhoisaghost]

How about this interesting piece of WiFoM for everyone.

Assumptions:

• Ulla is Scum[/*:m:25a8vrfo]
• Vox is Town[/*:m:25a8vrfo]
• Angel is Scum[/*:m:25a8vrfo]

How would things have played out differently?

• Angel, as Scum, would have known that Ulla was not the Town Drunk.[/*:m:25a8vrfo]
• Angel would be earning some serious Townie Cred[/*:m:25a8vrfo]
• Ulla was a goner anyway, either by being lynched or after Vox was lynched and came back Town[/*:m:25a8vrfo]

Now, I still think it's more likely that Angel is Town, but wouldn't that be interesting?

This would be a really bad play.... the gambit of taking out Vox and sacrificing herself would be a bad enough play for Ulla.... its only benefit would be eliminating a power role....

But then to turn around and just bus Ulla in order to gain town cred... without getting the bennie of a town lynch?

The old play at least guaranteed the scum 3 town deaths and knowing exactly where the vote was going for 2 consecutive days. Thats a lot to give up for town cred.

[paulwhoisaghost]

[color=blue]Vote Ulla[/colo]

Vox needs to be spanked on the town square, whether or not he is Town.

Assuming that she comes up as a podling of some kind, I would also like to take a closer look at Paul, for this post:

There would be no need to false claim if one of them has been recruited. So I doubt we would see a counter claim.

I was just about to bring up the fact that while we are only seeing nilla deaths, it just means that the odds are in favor of a power role being recruited.


So.... the psychoanalyst can be recruited..... the town drunk cannot. That being said, unless I see a counter claim against Ulla.....


[color=blue] VOTE VOX [/colo]

It is a very seductive argument in the case of Ulla lying and a true town drunk decides not to counter-claim, but it is deceptive in that it completely omits the associated risks of that blindspot. It is the kind of argument that I can totally see a scum making in the hopes that if they can't get the true Town Drunk to claim, they might at least help get Vox lynched.

Vox needs to be spanked on the town square, whether or not he is Town.

Also assuming Ulla comes up scum, she gets a public spanking too...unless there is much hand-wringing about making an honest linguistic mistake in the scum thread. (with one of these instead of one of these.

Hmm... ok I'm not quite understanding how you are seeing what I posted as reason to suspect me as scum... Can you try again... but this time talk to me like I'm 5 so I can understand?

[Rabid Renaissance]

My approach was to look at the most compelling case presented to not lynch Ulla, and your post sums that case up, imho, and it was made relatively early in the flow of alleged power role intel. I also make the assumption that the most compelling case will be from a scum who has had time to flesh out the compelling case, weigh it, and say it just right.

If you are scum, and you know that Ulla is scum and is lying about being the Town Drunk. The best thing you could do in a gambit assist is to try and maximize the case against another player and minimize the case against Ulla.

Your post does that while (imho) subtly omitting the consequences of the real Town Drunk choosing not to out themselves, which is a scenario where your proposal would have a lot of risk.

[Julie]

Night creeps toward Pleasanton like ivy, dark and cool. The bonfire again rages in the square, but there is a different feeling among the Townsfolk. They don't know if their chosen victim is one of the evil infiltrators, but they do know that no matter what happens, they will learn something valuable--something important.

Vox Imperatoris stands before the crowd. He looks young, maybe a little arrogant, but very confident. "Total Ulla is a Pod Person!" he cries. "Watch how unable she is to act frightened!"

The crowd roars and there is a vicious struggle as six Townspeople drag Total Ulla to the fire. "No, you fools," she says. Her voice is steady. "I am the Town Drunk. I am the Town Drunk." But there is no alcohol on her breath. She is clear-eyed and seems unafraid, even in the midst of her personal danger. They feel she is playing a role, hoping for a last-minute reprieve.

None comes. As she is thrown on the fire, she laughs and laughs. Her body catches flame like kindling instead of flesh and the town fills with a smell like burning leaves and some exotic spice. It is the same perfume they smelled when the Pod that so resembled Jack Finney was tossed on the flames.

Total Ulla, a Pod Person, has been killed. At last, the Town has some good news.

But it is Night 3, and the good news won't last.

[Julie]

Night 3 fluff thread is here.

Player List (12 players remain)

1. sublight
2. AllWalker ([del:1r0upgg2]Claptree[/del:1r0upgg2])
3. PrecambrianMollusc ([del:1r0upgg2]What Exit?[/del:1r0upgg2])
4. Winston Smith
5. Vox Imperatoris
7. Zsofia
8. cowgirl
9. special ed ([del:1r0upgg2]jali[/del:1r0upgg2])
10. AngeloftheNorth([del:1r0upgg2]pedescribe[/del:1r0upgg2])
12. Rabid Renaissance
13. Myrnalene
14. paulwhoisaghost



The Dead:

Day 1: 11. [del:1r0upgg2]One and only Wanderers[/del:1r0upgg2]--Vanilla Town (lynch)
Night 1: 17. [del:1r0upgg2]special ed[/del:1r0upgg2]--Vanilla Town (NK)
Day 2: 15. [del:1r0upgg2]Angel of the North[/del:1r0upgg2]--Vanilla Town (lynch)
Night 2: 6. [del:1r0upgg2]AllWalker[/del:1r0upgg2]--Vanilla Town (NK)
Day 3: 16. [del:1r0upgg2]Total Ulla[/del:1r0upgg2]--Pod Person (lynch)

[Julie]

Don't be surprised if Night ends up extended this week because of the board outages. I'll let you know asap.

[Julie]

Because of issues with the board, I'm extending Night 3 to 4 pm Monday. Day 4 will then be extra-long and last until 4 pm the following Monday.

Power roles, please send in your actions. All players please check your PMs in case there is additional information I have or will send you.

Thanks, all!