Pod People in Pleasanton, a Mafia Game (Day 1 begins: Post 28)

[AllWalker]

Evenly sharing the risk of mislynching is a strange ploy. That can be applied to any Day - in the future we will have more information, but that wont reduce the chance of mislynches much. Right now, we have to take the risk of mislynching to generate information.

While we're whipping out our logics to measure, I'd like someone to explain to me what insight you could possibly expect to gain by looking at toDay's vote behavior, or that of Day 2, or even Day 3.

One Day's voting record tells you little. A person's voting record over the entire game, though, can highlight patterns. This is especially true as people become confirmed Town or Scum as the game progresses. At the end of the day, it is the most reliable piece of information we have.

The Town will blunder about, hopelessly searching for Scum. The Scum will pretend to do the same, by will vote with more purpose and knowledge in mind. This difference in playing styles is never obvious, but sometimes Scum unwittingly leaves clues.

[Rabid Renaissance]

We can and should work our way toward that perspective, but applying it to these early Days is wrong, wrong, wrong.

[special ed]

As for "when are we going to start playing Mafia"? I have the same question. Part of the game is weighing the implications of the setup and acting accordingly. There is a sweet spot somewhere between over reliance on power roles and leaving there asses hanging out in the wind for no strategic reason.

And how does random voting save a power role?

There are 5/17 power roles. If I pick randomly, I've got a 5/17 chance of voting for a power role. How is that different than if I vote for the most anti-Town player I see? Unless you're assuming that power roles will tend to play more anti-Town on Day 1?

But I'm willing to put my stubborn perspective aside for the moment (n the hopes that you all will do the same) and say that I don't know yet what I'll think we should do toMorrow or the next day. We might actually have data upon which to base a decision by then, and who knows that that data might be.

We 'might have data'? What data might we have?

But your suggestion of random voting precludes any data save that of an investigation toNight. We'll have no real discussion of anyone's play.

By voting the most anti-Town, we'll have actual vote data as well as people's comments on anti-town play. And we'll still have an investigative results.

*************Warning, some basic statistical analysis follows************

A couple of assumptions:
1. 16 votes (all random by 16 people)
2. 16 possible outcomes for each vote (person may not vote for themselves)
3. 17 possible outcomes in all

I ran 10 sample distributions of random votes by 16 players. (yeah, it as tedious, I'm sure there's a calculation I could have made to figure out the exact odds)

Methods
1. I randomly created votes for each player (number A-Q)
2. I randomly assigned each role to the numbers. Player F came out MPP. Power roles were E, B, Q, M, and C. I selected only 3 recruits for safety: I, L, and G

Here are the voting results :
In the 1st ballot: Player M, a power role is on the block and may be forced to claim.
3 Votes: J, M
2 Votes: C, I
1 Vote: F, Q, L, O, N, G


In the 2nd ballot: Power roles seem safe but G is a recruit, MPP may vote for C to cause a tie, MPP is in no danger
3 Votes: G
2 Votes: L, O, C
1 Vote: K, D, A, M, E, Q, B

In the 3rd ballot: Power roles seem safe. We lynch Vanilla, depending on the MPP< a smart move might be to force a tie and double the possibility of forcing a claim
3 Votes: K
2 Votes: M, B, D
1 Vote: L, G, J, I, P, Q, A

In the 4th ballot: A power role is on the block. MPP could easily bring another power to the top. Probably claim by E
2 Votes: D, G, J, E
1 Vote: Q, I, K, M, C, N, A, B

In the 5th ballot: Looks like we get a Vanilla
4 Votes: A
3 Votes: N
2 Votes: L, D
1 Vote: F, B, O, C, Q

In the 6th ballot:We've got 2 recruits on the block with a power role, so our MPP has a 50/50 chance of voting for our power role to save the tie, forcing a claim. E will have to claim
2 Votes: N, G, E, O, I
1 Vote: B, P, C, H, L, F

In the 7th ballot: We've definitely got at least 1 claim here
4 Votes: Q
3 Votes: L
2 Vote: C, M, D
1 Vote: E, I, J

In the 8th ballot: This sucks. You think M might claim?
6 Votes: M
2 Votes: L
1 Vote: J, Q, K, E, N, P, F, I

In the 9th Ballot: This looks like our best outcome, lynch a Vanilla most likely. (Unless the MPP brings a power role to the top, you know he won't be bringing himself or a recruit
2 Votes: O, A, D
1 Vote: P, C, B, F, H, L, I, E, Q, M

Final ballot: I don't think the MPP will vote himself, we've got a power role at the top, probable claim needed.
2 Votes: C, P, F, H
1 Vote: N, L, A, K, I, D, O, M

So out of 10 ballots, we have at least 5 claims.

I'm not sure what any of this proves, but, by damn, I did it and you're going to read it!!

[pedescribe]

The benefit of random voting has already been explained. Evenly sharing the risk of mislynching across the population. The benefit of lynching Angel is not lynching or outing a power role. We already have nothing to analyze toMorrow, slightly less than nothing the Day after, and slighly less than that the Day after that. Where is the benefit in pretending like we will have something that we will not have?

But how is that a good thing? We want to increase the chances of hitting the MPP, and we can only do that by actually looking at people's strategies and opinion and votes.

[pedescribe]

Incidentally, RabRen, if you are town, I look forward to discussion in the Forbidden Thread.

[AllWalker]

We can and should work our way toward that perspective, but applying it to these early Days is wrong, wrong, wrong.

You can't work towards that perspective by randomly voting. Voting needs to have purpose, otherwise it tells us nothing, which is a poor foundation for Day 2.

[Rabid Renaissance]

There are 5/17 power roles. If I pick randomly, I've got a 5/17 chance of voting for a power role. How is that different than if I vote for the most anti-Town player I see? Unless you're assuming that power roles will tend to play more anti-Town on Day 1?

Everyone has a 5/17 chance of hitting a power role with a random vote. Not everyone is going to agree on what anti-town behavior looks/smells/tastes/sounds like. Not everyone is going to agree on who may or may not be exhibiting anti-town behavior.

I'm sorry to say that it is not possible to account for all of the variables introduced by our individual outlooks on life (blindspots, biases, etc) so we can't put together samples to see how many times we'd end up with a power role claim out of 10 different populations of people voting with their guts. I do appreciate your efforts on the random side though.

I know that I am Town.

I highly doubt that either Angel or OneAndOnlyWanderers are the MPP. Any of us could very well be Recruits, but that has no bearing on the argument that it is better to vote with our guts than leave it to straight probability while the numbers favor such action.

Voting needs to have purpose, otherwise it tells us nothing, which is a poor foundation for Day 2.

Voting randomly has the purpose of evenly distributing the risk of mislynch. The poor foundation of nothing that you fear so much on Day 2 is already going to be the reality. There will be no foundation on Day 2 because there is only one person with the potential of making a slip or exposing their motivation with a tell and that person is literrally swimming in the opportunities we are all providing him/her to not even have to come close to exposing or slipping anything.

[sublight]

Just a note to myself so I don't forget (and to anyone else if they're asking where I am): 4PM Thursday is 5AM Friday my time. I will make an effort to be online in the hour or so before the deadline, but no guarantees.

[sublight]

We can and should work our way toward that perspective, but applying it to these early Days is wrong, wrong, wrong.

You can't work towards that perspective by randomly voting. Voting needs to have purpose, otherwise it tells us nothing, which is a poor foundation for Day 2.

True. Not voting with any purpose or reason on Day 1 provides us with nothing to work with on Day 2 beyond who the MPP decided to kill in the night (if anyone gets killed)

[sublight]

But I'm clearly NOT the MPP, because if I were and I died today, the game would be over, which means that in effect, you're doing what I suggested anyway.

Not true, the picks on your list would still become Pod People with each day who could then still night kill and try to take over the town. Sacrificing your self on the first day would be a poor but not unwinnable strategy, while threatening to sacrifice yourself to prove that you're town could buy you time away from suspicion.

[jali]

I'm going to read every single post right now. Sublight pulled me in from Mafia Wars (I'm obsessed) to remind me that today is voting day. I suck. I'm sorry.

[Julie]

Vote Count:


One and only Wanderers: 5 (Vox Imperatoris, AllWalker, sublight, cowgirl, What Exit?)

Rabid Renaissance: 3 (pedescribe, special ed, Zsofia)

AngeloftheNorth: 2 (Total Ulla, AngeloftheNorth)

What Exit?: 1 (One and only Wanderers)

Claptree: 1 (Myrnalene)

sublight: 1 (Rabid Renaissance)



Approximately 5 hours remain until end of Day.

[jali]

Vote AngelofTheNorth for the insistance that she couldn't be scum because she's volunteering and that the game would be over if she were the boss. The game won't be over by killing the Master Pod (can't recall the terminology, sorry) as discussed by more than one, (if I remember correctly), upthread. For someone who cited previoous Mafia games in a post, this is a very weak argument. For a newby misunderstanding the rules, I can see, but not from a seasoned player.

[jali]

=AngeloftheNorth wrote:
Okay, if this posts twice forgive me, I don't think my first post went through.

This is a cool, unusual setup. I've never played a game like this before with one scum to start off with. Normally I like to vote early on Day One and change my votes as needed. But in this case, I believe the MMP is likely to hang back and watch us lynch each other. So I'll be holding my vote until near the end of the day most likely, and vote for a lurker.

Instead of this, she throws herself on her sword. Hmmm.

[Claptree]

5 hours left? Maybe I should vote, then. I don't think it's a good idea to vote randomly, but I also don't think it's a very scummy thing to do, just a different perspective than mine. Definitely not worth my vote.

No one has done anything that really stands out as either scummy or anti-town, IMO. At least nothing I don't chalk up to being new to the game (What Exit?'s unexplained votes).

vote AngeloftheNorth, because she asked for it, and because I'm a bit suspicious of the approach.

Non-voters so far are Lucifer and paulwhoisaghost.

[What Exit?]

5 hours left? ...

No one has done anything that really stands out as either scummy or anti-town, IMO. At least nothing I don't chalk up to being new to the game (What Exit?'s unexplained votes).
...
Non-voters so far are Lucifer and paulwhoisaghost.

But I think I did explain . I found recommending against voting very suspicious.

Now I am confused.

[cowgirl]

Angel of the North has been playing inconsistently as well.

Early in the day she says:

So I'll be holding my vote until near the end of the day most likely, and vote for a lurker.

This does not seem consistent with her next post:

Vote What Exit for jumping on a bandwagon with no reason given.

Then she votes for Myrnalene here
and unvotes What Exit here.

This is scattered and inconsistent, but not particularly suspicious - until post 151 where she appears to out herself as a vanilla townie (altho she doesn't explicitly say as much) and offers herself as a lynch candidate. Very odd.

Unvote One and only Wanderers which I believe brings us to a tie. I'd like to hear a few more perspectives before I decide between them.

[What Exit?]

Unvote One and only Wanderers [/color]which I believe brings us to a tie. I'd like to hear a few more perspectives before I decide between them.

Why would a Vet call for a no-vote? It still makes no sense to me. I'll admit Angel would be my second choice at this point, but One and only seems very suspicious. Maybe you can convince me otherwise.

[cowgirl]

Unvote One and only Wanderers which I believe brings us to a tie. I'd like to hear a few more perspectives before I decide between them.

Why would a Vet call for a no-vote? It still makes no sense to me. I'll admit Angel would be my second choice at this point, but One and only seems very suspicious. Maybe you can convince me otherwise.

Was this addressed to me? I'm not calling for a no-vote, I will vote again before nightfall. I'm just not as sure as I was that OAOW is more suspicious than AOTN and I'd like to discuss it a bit more.

[Julie]

Vote Count:


One and only Wanderers: 4 (Vox Imperatoris, AllWalker, sublight, What Exit?)

AngeloftheNorth: 4 (Total Ulla, AngeloftheNorth, jali, Claptree)

Rabid Renaissance: 3 (pedescribe, special ed, Zsofia)

What Exit?: 1 (One and only Wanderers)

Claptree: 1 (Myrnalene)

sublight: 1 (Rabid Renaissance)

[Claptree]

But I think I did explain . I found recommending against voting very suspicious.

Now I am confused.

I don't think that link goes where you meant for it to. You did explain, after prompting. I merely used the fact that you had voted twice without explaining your reasoning as an example of anti-town behaviour that probably didn't have an anti-town motivation.

[AngeloftheNorth]

Ulla, your argument just doesn't make sense to me. You're voting me because you think my play is anti-town...okay, I've been called that before and lived. But I'm clearly NOT the MPP, because if I were and I died today, the game would be over

This is not true. Additionally, why are you arguing against people voting for you when you yourself came up with the tacit and you yourself have voted for you?

So, voting for yourself is somehow pro-Town but other people voting for you is anti-Town?

Isn't that a contradiction? Perhaps I'm easily confused, but if a vote for you is anti-Town, why are you doing it?

************
Space bar is because I don't think I'm doing the quoting right. Everything above it is quote, everything below it is commentary.

Is it not true that if the MPP dies today, the game is over? I thought it took the "recruits" more than one night to convert. It's entirely possible I'm confused, but that's what I thought.

Ed, I never said Ulla voting for me is anti-town. You and I have a real problem understanding each other sometimes so please ask again if I'm not making this clear. What I said was that Ulla telling me that she was voting for me because I was playing anti-town is circular logic to me.

She thinks I shouldn't vote for myself because a soft vanilla claim is anti-town. She thinks lynching a vanilla town as a sacrifice is a bad idea.

She thinks our first objective on Day One should be protecting power claims, and our second objective should be trying to find scum. She suggests we do this by looking for changes, which makes sense on Day Two but not on Day One. She thinks that trying to eliminate potential recruits is a bad idea. (Ulla, if I'm misunderstanding what you're saying, please tell me that too. But this is how I understand what you've said.)

And yet she's voting for me. She can't be voting for me because I've "changed," as no one has changed yet. So her reason for voting for me makes no sense. She's telling me my plan is wrong and yet helping me put the plan into action.

I have to pick up the kids from the bus, I'll address the second half of your question in a few.

[sublight]

Ok, I'm here for the last hour.

[sublight]

Was this addressed to me? I'm not calling for a no-vote, I will vote again before nightfall. I'm just not as sure as I was that OAOW is more suspicious than AOTN and I'd like to discuss it a bit more.

I'm also becoming less certain of who is more suspicious, but I'll hold my vote as-is for the moment.

[What Exit?]

But I think I did explain. I found recommending against voting very suspicious.

Now I am confused.

I don't think that link goes where you meant for it to. You did explain, after prompting. I merely used the fact that you had voted twice without explaining your reasoning as an example of anti-town behaviour that probably didn't have an anti-town motivation.

Wow, that link really did not go where I expected. OK, so on future days I should explain my vote as I make it. This is good to know.

[cowgirl]

The hour draws nigh. I'd love to hear from one of our two frontrunners to help me decide between them, but I'm losing hope.

I suspect AngeloftheNorth would want me to vote for her, given post 151, but One and only Wanderers hasn't posted since he confirmed his vote for What Exit on Tuesday. (I hope I am getting your genders correct!)

So the possibilities I am weighing (-->followed by my analysis) are:

1. AOTN is scummy and tried something bold, a shot in the dark, which has effectively increased the level of confusion and suspicion a little. --> But confusion and suspicion can result from the fact that so few of us have any information on day 1 in this game, or it could be a scum tell.

2. One or both of them is a non-scummy power role, and they know something we do not, and their motivations will become clear once their role is revealed. --> The likelihood of their being a power role is the same as anybody's else so I'm not sure how I should take this.

3. They are both vanilla townies. --> in this case it doesn't matter what I do, because it seems likely that one of them will be lynched anyway

4. OAOW is scummy, made a few posts early in the Day, and is keeping his head down in order to avoid arousing further suspicion. --> This is entirely possible, but it's also entirely possible that I'm reading the situation wrong.

Anybody else going to make or change a vote?

[sublight]

I agree with your analysis. So far, OAOW still seems the most likely to me, but the last thing we need, IMO, is a no-lynch because of a tie.

[cowgirl]

Hiya sublight! feels like we're the only ones in here. I agree with you and I can't keep refreshing this page waiting for more opinions ...

Vote One and only Wanderers.

[Julie]

Vote Count:


One and only Wanderers: 5 (Vox Imperatoris, AllWalker, sublight, What Exit?, cowgirl)

AngeloftheNorth: 4 (Total Ulla, AngeloftheNorth, jali, Claptree)

Rabid Renaissance: 3 (pedescribe, special ed, Zsofia)

What Exit?: 1 (One and only Wanderers)

Claptree: 1 (Myrnalene)

sublight: 1 (Rabid Renaissance)

[jali]

my snip

Quote by AotN

I thought about offering myself as a possible lynch candidate, seriously.

I only know 5 of the players here, so I don't know what that makes the odds. However, the players that know me here know that I love to play Scum, which I believe would make me an ideal recruit if one of them happens to be the MPP. (The players I know here are Ulla, Bufftabby, Paul, Special Ed, and Pedescribe...6 if BillMc is in this game. I am playing too many games at once now and I'm confused.)

The thing is, I'm trying to learn to love to play town too, as I've been town far more than I've been scum.

This happened in the Crimson Glyph game, I was the recruit on Night One.

So if we decide as a group that it's worthwhile to go after recruits, I would offer myself as a very likely recruit.

Much added confusion here for no good reason. "Crimson Glyph" has zero to do with this game. "Love to play scum" - this is a very distracting comment, that leads me to really believe that she's scum here.

[sublight]

About 5 minutes left...

[sublight]

It would appear the sun has gone down.

[Julie]

August 11, 1952. All of Pleasanton gathers at the square, under the looming shadow of Benjamin McGillicuddy's statue. It is dusk and the sky looks like smoke and soot, as if the whole world is on fire and not just the tall pile of firewood the townspeople stacked so precisely on the grass.

So much can happen in a day. So many friendships can be lost to fear and anger. So many words cannot be taken back.

They are there to kill. They all know it, but only a few hold back from the fear, from the rising desire to take any steps, go any distance, to stamp out the monsters in their midst.

And they have one particular monster in mind, no matter that he screams his innocence as they haul him to the pyre. But could he be innocent? Is he just another victim, this time of misdirection and circumstance?

As he dies, they realize their enormous mistake. One and only Wanderers, a simple townsperson, was no alien infiltrator. He was fully human and had no contact with the Pod People.

The people of Pleasanton scurry to their houses, hoping they will find safety there. But there are no safe places when the enemy looks like a friend.

Night falls. At one window a face appears, turns toward the smoldering ruins of the fire, and smiles.

[sublight]

Well. There it is then. I'm going back to bed.

[Julie]

Night 1 fluff thread is here.



Town Drunk: Please send me a PM of the player you wish to investigate to discover if they are a recruit.

Psychoanalyst: Please send me a PM of the player you wish to investigate to discover if they are a Pod Person.

Sheriff: Please send me a PM of the player you wish to protect from Night 1's Night kill.

Mad Scientist: Please send me a PM of the player you wish to vaccinate to protect from becoming a Pod Person during Night 1.

Pod People: I will reveal of the status of your recruitment to you as soon as I can after I have received of the relevant Power role PMs. After your discussion, please send me a PM of the player you wish to Night kill.

Night should end on Saturday, May 30 at 6 p.m. EDT (GMT -4). Please get the names to me sooner rather than later to allow the Pod People time to strategize. Many of the results are interdependent and delays by one player will cause delays to all. If necessary, I will extend Night to guarantee the Pod People have sufficient time to talk.




1. sublight
2. Claptree
3. What Exit?
4. Lucifer
5. Vox
6. AllWalker
7. Zsofia
8. cowgirl
9. jali
10. pedescribe
[del:1e3u9bnq]11. One and only Wanderers[/del:1e3u9bnq]--Vanilla Town
12. Rabid Renaissance
13. Myrnalene
14. paulwhoisaghost
15. Angel of the North
16. Total Ulla
17. special ed