+ Reply to thread
Results 1 to 23 of 23

Thread: Economics of electric cars

  1. #1
    Elephant CRSP's avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Perfidious Albion
    Posts
    936

    Default Economics of electric cars

    Is the dream of a highway filled with electric cars essentially bunk? First, there needs to be some sort of charging infrastructure in place to get people to buy the cars, but this will only be built when people are actually buying them! Further, suppose a company or government starts building charging stations, in order to build a usable network. If they are built today, we're essentially stuck with today's technology in terms of battery charging, aren't we? Things like adapters, currents, voltages etc. need to be fixed in advance, without knowing what tomorrow holds. Given how fast battery technology advances, isn't this a losing proposition?
    Les sanglots longs des violons de l'automne blessent mon coeur
    D'une langueur Monotone

  2. #2
    aka ivan the not-quite-as-terrible ivan astikov's avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2009
    Location
    moston, UK.
    Posts
    4,779

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    Wouldn't we still need oil to power the charging infrastructure? I've gotta admit, I'm kinda concerned at how dependent we are on electricity and feel such dependency is going to turn round and bite us one day.
    To sleep, perchance to experience amygdalocortical activation and prefrontal deactivation.

  3. #3
    Elen síla lumenn' omentielvo What Exit?'s avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Central NJ (near Bree)
    Posts
    10,071

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    There are many things that can be done to make the switch.

    Making Electricity at power plants is much more efficient than burning Gas or Diesel even with transmission losses.

    Stations could have batteries for rapid swap out, similar but better done than the Propane tank exchanges available at many gas stations in the US at least.

    Nuke, Wind and Solar can replace Coal, Gas and Oil to reduce Greenhouse gases by a huge amount.

    There are also some advancements being made in distribution that will help energy efficiency.

    BTW: Oil is generally the smallest component of Electrical Generation.

  4. #4
    Elephant CRSP's avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Perfidious Albion
    Posts
    936

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    Quote Originally posted by What Exit?
    Stations could have batteries for rapid swap out, similar but better done than the Propane tank exchanges available at many gas stations in the US at least.
    Right, but to make this work, won't every car company have to agree on a universal battery configuration? I mean, I can go to a BP garage and fill up with petrol, and my car will work just as well as if I'd filled up at a Shell garage. Are we going to see Ford charging stations, BMW charging stations, Toyota charging stations etc. or is there going to be a single standard, and if so, isn't that extremely limiting?
    Les sanglots longs des violons de l'automne blessent mon coeur
    D'une langueur Monotone

  5. #5
    Stegodon
    Registered
    Apr 2009
    Location
    Cumbria, UK
    Posts
    110

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    Quote Originally posted by CRSP
    Things like adapters, currents, voltages etc. need to be fixed in advance, without knowing what tomorrow holds.
    I believe there is a German company that are all ready trying to define a standard for adapters. The standard applies to both the manufacturer of vehicle and also the country of recharge station.

    However, just like you say, if tomorrows technology supersedes these adapters it will be massively disruptive to tomorrows electric auto industry to upgrade all cars and stations.

    Here is an article about the common adapter.

  6. #6
    Elen síla lumenn' omentielvo What Exit?'s avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Central NJ (near Bree)
    Posts
    10,071

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    Quote Originally posted by CRSP
    Quote Originally posted by What Exit?
    Stations could have batteries for rapid swap out, similar but better done than the Propane tank exchanges available at many gas stations in the US at least.
    Right, but to make this work, won't every car company have to agree on a universal battery configuration? I mean, I can go to a BP garage and fill up with petrol, and my car will work just as well as if I'd filled up at a Shell garage. Are we going to see Ford charging stations, BMW charging stations, Toyota charging stations etc. or is there going to be a single standard, and if so, isn't that extremely limiting?
    In most cases people are going to charge at home, the battery swap out plan will get interesting and still has to be fairly far away. It is just a proposal I read. As the cars will probably grow to have a range of a few hundred miles in the next decade, maybe we'll see more truck stops and rest areas with universal chargers and greasy food while you wait.

    It may be that Electrics work best in Suburban areas and Hybrid Electrics with on board small generators or fuel cells are the norm for Urban and rural areas.

  7. #7
    Stegodon Walker in Eternity's avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2009
    Location
    The Spiral Politic
    Posts
    390

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    From watching Top Gear a few weks ago it became apparent to me that electric cars are unlikely to be a viable for the following reasons:

    1. The best car demonstrated had a range of about 200 miles if driven economically.(can't remember the make, possibly a Honda or Toyota IIRC)

    2. It ran out of power in about 15 minutes when driven at racing speeds

    3. It takes about 14 hours to re-charge the battery. So it's a litle difficult getting to work the next day if you let the battery run down.

    The second point above is irrelevant to this, but 1 and 3 are deal breakers and until it becomes possible to charge cars quickly they are unlikely to catch on.

    Maybe some kind of solar panel is required to "trickle charge" the battery during the daytime?

    For the record I'm not a petrol head, but can't see this catching on until the technology improves significantly.
    Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth - Marcus Aurelius

  8. #8
    Member
    Registered
    May 2009
    Posts
    8

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    Quote Originally posted by What Exit?
    Nuke, Wind and Solar can replace Coal, Gas and Oil to reduce Greenhouse gases by a huge amount.
    They'd have to, otherwise switching to electric cars would increase our carbon footprint.

    Take an car that gets 30mpg with a 100hp engine, run it for an hour at 60mph. It consumes 2 gallons. Each gallon of gas consumed results in about 20lbs of carbon(cite), for a total of 40lbs carbon emitted.

    Take an equivalent 100hp electric car (75kW), run it for an hour at 60mph. It consumes 75kW/hr of electricity. Each kW/h of electricity produced by fossil fuel results in between 1-2 lbs of carbon (cite) , for a total of > 75lbs carbon emitted.

  9. #9
    Elen síla lumenn' omentielvo What Exit?'s avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Central NJ (near Bree)
    Posts
    10,071

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    Quote Originally posted by Walker in Eternity
    1. The best car demonstrated had a range of about 200 miles if driven economically.(can't remember the make, possibly a Honda or Toyota IIRC)
    ...
    3. It takes about 14 hours to re-charge the battery. So it's a litle difficult getting to work the next day if you let the battery run down.
    ...
    Maybe some kind of solar panel is required to "trickle charge" the battery during the daytime?
    ...
    1) That is better than I thought and already is showing a lot of improvement over a few years back.
    3) The Tesla I believe will charge in 2-3 hours, but that is extreme hi-end.

    Solar Panels are not yet at the point where they could trickle charge a car that well. It would not hurt, but it would not charge the car all that much either.

  10. #10
    Elen síla lumenn' omentielvo What Exit?'s avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Central NJ (near Bree)
    Posts
    10,071

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    [quote=Inaestimabile Donum]
    Quote Originally posted by "What Exit?":3bkrbmbc
    Nuke, Wind and Solar can replace Coal, Gas and Oil to reduce Greenhouse gases by a huge amount.
    They'd have to, otherwise switching to electric cars would increase our carbon footprint.

    Take an car that gets 30mpg with a 100hp engine, run it for an hour at 60mph. It consumes 2 gallons. Each gallon of gas consumed results in about 20lbs of carbon(cite), for a total of 40lbs carbon emitted.

    Take an equivalent 100hp electric car (75kW), run it for an hour at 60mph. It consumes 75kW/hr of electricity. Each kW/h of electricity produced by fossil fuel results in between 1-2 lbs of carbon (cite) , for a total of > 75lbs carbon emitted.[/quote:3bkrbmbc]
    Good cites, do the reports account for the transport & refining of the Gasoline? The distance is far greater than Coal and Natural Gas which is what I hope we slowly phase out in the next few decades.

    Every source of power has serious drawbacks. Coal is highly polluting and mining practices are often disastrous but it is cheap and readily available in the US.

    Natural Gas is fairly plentiful still and easy to pipeline to save transport costs.

    Oil pays for terror and is getting costly. It has to shipped across the oceans. The refineries have additional issues.

    Nuke has waste issues

    Solar is inconsistent and not mature

    Wind is inconsistent and needs a better distro system than we have.

  11. #11
    Stegodon
    Registered
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Warsaw, PL
    Posts
    119

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    [quote=Inaestimabile Donum]
    Quote Originally posted by "What Exit?":n0p9m8na
    Nuke, Wind and Solar can replace Coal, Gas and Oil to reduce Greenhouse gases by a huge amount.
    They'd have to, otherwise switching to electric cars would increase our carbon footprint.

    Take an car that gets 30mpg with a 100hp engine, run it for an hour at 60mph. It consumes 2 gallons. Each gallon of gas consumed results in about 20lbs of carbon(cite), for a total of 40lbs carbon emitted.

    Take an equivalent 100hp electric car (75kW), run it for an hour at 60mph. It consumes 75kW/hr of electricity. Each kW/h of electricity produced by fossil fuel results in between 1-2 lbs of carbon (cite) , for a total of > 75lbs carbon emitted.[/quote:n0p9m8na]

    Nah, that comparison is invalid. It's apples to oranges. For one, electric cars have better performance from the same horse power than internal combustion cars - they have more torque, better acceleration, don't need so much gears (and thus have less losses) and can use regenerative braking. Also, significant part of electricity is not from fossil fuels, even today. Not most, but nonetheless.

    AFAIK right now electric cars are about the same as internal combustion cars regarding carbon footprint - difference is about 20% or less. But that might change either way in the future, depending on development of alternative energy sources.

  12. #12
    Elephant
    Registered
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Minneapolis
    Posts
    806

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    A couple of years ago, driving a little over 20 miles each way to work, I scoffed at the Volt, with it's 40 mile range. Especially considering that I live in Minnesota (extremes of weather and effects on batteries, heating and AC required) and worked at night (headlights).

    Now I'm 5 miles from work and it wouldn't be bad if I could plug it in at night and recharge it, but I'd still have a major issue going longer distances.

    Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries don't hold quite as much as Lithium Cobalt Oxide or Lithium Magnesium Oxide batteries, but they charge faster and last longer. See this article, which is about bike batteries, for a comparison and discussion.

    We will need infrastructure and better power transmission, which is another technological frontier, and we're going to have to overcome a lot of NIMBYism to get the lines put out.

    Then too, it all comes down to the generation of electricity. Wind, Solar and other so-called "green" energy sources are not fully developed or completely reliable. We are going to end up building more nuclear plants, like the Europeans. Bottom line is that they are cheaper, more reliable and have less environmental impact than oil and coal. Providing you're not cheap, stupid and corrupt enough to end up with a Chernobyl on your hands.

    At some stage of the game, we may end up with a battery swap program, just like we now have with propane tanks in most markets. You bring in the empty and take a fully charged one. This is much safer for the end consumer, who doesn't have to deal with electrical equipment that can easily kill him if he's careless or there's something wrong with it. It is also best for insurance/liability issues. You do NOT want to be a retailer in the position of allowing the common clay (you know, MORONS) to be handling high-amperage lines to recharge their vehicles.
    I reserve the right to be bothered by things that don't faze you,
    and to cheerfully ignore things that bug the shit out of you.
    I am not you.

  13. #13
    Curmudgeon OtakuLoki's avatar
    Registered
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Rochester, NY
    Posts
    2,836

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    One more consideration - just how practical is/are electric cars that require long charging time for most apartment dwellers? I'm in an urban area, and I can't help thinking that the risk for the cord to be cut out of mischief, or stolen for metal content, is real. ISTM that most electric cars currently offered require a beefed up electrical station in the home, which is not something that most people are going to be comfortable about leaving exposed to people wandering through their apartment complex' parking lot.

    Which might be enough of a serious pressure to help make the idea of a change-out battery station look more appealing to the manufacturers.

  14. #14
    Member
    Registered
    May 2009
    Posts
    8

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    Quote Originally posted by puppygod
    Nah, that comparison is invalid. It's apples to oranges. For one, electric cars have better performance from the same horse power than internal combustion cars - they have more torque, better acceleration, don't need so much gears (and thus have less losses) and can use regenerative braking. Also, significant part of electricity is not from fossil fuels, even today. Not most, but nonetheless.
    None of that is relevant in the scenario that I gave. There are situational benefits (like regenerative braking) to each. And it doesn't change the fact that with our current electricity generation (atleast in the US) electric cars don't solve a problem. Electricity generation is already the leading carbon emitter. Until we get that house in order, increasing the demand for electricity will only cause worse problems. (See the Second Chart )

    Once we have low carbon emissions from electricity generation, then moving to electric cars will have an overall benefit, but as it stands today, it just shifts carbon emission from one source to another.

  15. #15
    aka ivan the not-quite-as-terrible ivan astikov's avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2009
    Location
    moston, UK.
    Posts
    4,779

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    I don't know if there's a cite* for the estimation that 70% of all car journeys involve a distance of less than 10 miles, but these sort of trips seem ideally suited for an electric car.


    * Well, I do, but I don't know where I saw it and if it was valid!
    To sleep, perchance to experience amygdalocortical activation and prefrontal deactivation.

  16. #16
    Elephant
    Registered
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Plattsburgh, NY
    Posts
    528

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    Quote Originally posted by Chimera
    You do NOT want to be a retailer in the position of allowing the common clay (you know, MORONS) to be handling high-amperage lines to recharge their vehicles.




    :wink:


    Well you could say the same about gasoline. I'm sure there's more than one Darwin award out there involving a blow torch and home car repair. In fact, I bet they're so common place where there's too many to report.

  17. #17
    Curmudgeon OtakuLoki's avatar
    Registered
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Rochester, NY
    Posts
    2,836

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    Clayton, forget the blowtorch and home car repair - consider how common it is to see people at the self-service pumps still smoking.

  18. #18
    Elephant
    Registered
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Plattsburgh, NY
    Posts
    528

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    They deserve what they get and anyone that doesn't look around to see what other people are doing in their vicinity deserves what they get too, especially when around highly flammable liquids that are easily accessible to anyone that want to be around them.

    Sorry for the hijack, but gotta point out further that many people are idiots and deserve the trip to the burn ward, whether electric or gas is the cause.

  19. #19
    Elephant Tuckerfan's avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Gallatin, TN
    Posts
    957

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    [quote=What Exit?]
    Quote Originally posted by CRSP
    Quote Originally posted by "What Exit?":1f3ekawv
    Stations could have batteries for rapid swap out, similar but better done than the Propane tank exchanges available at many gas stations in the US at least.
    Right, but to make this work, won't every car company have to agree on a universal battery configuration? I mean, I can go to a BP garage and fill up with petrol, and my car will work just as well as if I'd filled up at a Shell garage. Are we going to see Ford charging stations, BMW charging stations, Toyota charging stations etc. or is there going to be a single standard, and if so, isn't that extremely limiting?
    In most cases people are going to charge at home, the battery swap out plan will get interesting and still has to be fairly far away.[/quote:1f3ekawv]Better Place is scheduled to have their battery swap places operational in Israel next year, and have already demonstrated the technology. Of course, if you're going to use battery swap technology, then everybody has to basically drive the same kind of car. The electric battery which gives a sedan a 200 mile range is not going to give a pick up or SUV that kind of range, and there's all kinds of issues of weight balance to be worked out.

    Automakers, in a rash case of common sense, have all agreed to use the same standard electrical plug for their plug-in hybrid models. Of course, I've not heard that they've all agreed to put them on the same side of the car, so much hilarity is bound to ensue once the things have been in production for a few years and people discover that the location of the charger was just fine when they owned a Ford, but now that they own a Honda, its on the wrong damn side of the garage.

    The Tesla recharges in about 6 hours, provided you're using the 240V charger. If you plug it into a standard wall outlet, you can expect it to take 30 hours. If you want an electric car that can recharge in the same amount of time it takes to gas up a conventional car, that requires superconducting wires and ultra-capacitors, since you're going to need to put about 80kw into that car.

    There's also issues with the electrical grid. Yes, the grid can handle the load added to it if everyone switched to electric cars, but only if people have so-called smart meters and recharge their vehicles during "off-peak hours." That's not going to sit well with folks.

    Right now, a few places around the country have free charging stations for people who own electric cars to recharge their vehicles, I can assure you, however, that when electric cars become more than the curiosity that they are now, those charging stations will require you to pay money to use them (which will naturally make people think less of their electric cars).

    The argument that electricity is so much cheaper than gasoline, is only going to hold for as long as electric cars are relatively few in number. As you add more and more of them to the grid, electricity costs are going to have to go up. There's plans to have smart meters vary the amount they charge, depending upon what's drawing the electricity, and when its drawing it, but it'll be quite some time before those become common, and in the meantime, we're going to have to work out what to do about road taxes.

    Already the increased fuel economy/switch to mass transit is causing short falls in the amount of money available to pay for highway improvements. The proposals to fix this include such things as installing meters in cars and taxing people based on how many miles they drive. These are not exactly popular with folks, and I can well see politicians deciding that it would be better to add the tax to your electric bill, rather than trying to track vehicle mileage. So, instead of having to pay a few extra bucks every time you fill up your tank, imagine having your electric bill shoot up dramatically because there's a road tax placed upon it.
    Proud member of the '09 Phanters! K.I.L.L. S.M.U.R.F.S.
    Have you ever wondered if your mom kissed you goodnight after giving your dad a blowjob? You are now. "To be second in space is to be second in everything," LBJ

  20. #20
    aka ivan the not-quite-as-terrible ivan astikov's avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2009
    Location
    moston, UK.
    Posts
    4,779

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    Good post Tuckerfan, but I had to nitpick this bit -
    but now that they own a Honda, its on the wrong damn side of the garage.
    You mean they might have to reverse their vehicle into the garage?(Or reverse the way they entered it.) "OH NOES!"
    To sleep, perchance to experience amygdalocortical activation and prefrontal deactivation.

  21. #21
    Elephant Tuckerfan's avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Gallatin, TN
    Posts
    957

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    Quote Originally posted by ivan astikov
    Good post Tuckerfan, but I had to nitpick this bit -
    but now that they own a Honda, its on the wrong damn side of the garage.
    You mean they might have to reverse their vehicle into the garage?(Or reverse the way they entered it.) "OH NOES!"
    Yabut, if the power port is on the front of the car, and the cord won't reach if its on the opposite side of the car as your previous car, backing into the garage won't solve anything.
    Proud member of the '09 Phanters! K.I.L.L. S.M.U.R.F.S.
    Have you ever wondered if your mom kissed you goodnight after giving your dad a blowjob? You are now. "To be second in space is to be second in everything," LBJ

  22. #22
    Elen síla lumenn' omentielvo What Exit?'s avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Central NJ (near Bree)
    Posts
    10,071

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    Quote Originally posted by ivan astikov
    Good post Tuckerfan, but I had to nitpick this bit -
    but now that they own a Honda, its on the wrong damn side of the garage.
    You mean they might have to reverse their vehicle into the garage?(Or reverse the way they entered it.) "OH NOES!"
    ivan, this is concern as a long extension cord for this type of use with probably be comparable to buying a marine extension cord. They run about $220 or so. Not the end of the world, but another annoyance.

  23. #23
    Elephant Tuckerfan's avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Gallatin, TN
    Posts
    957

    Default Re: Economics of electric cars

    [quote=What Exit?]
    Quote Originally posted by "ivan astikov":36awsmnn
    Good post Tuckerfan, but I had to nitpick this bit -
    but now that they own a Honda, its on the wrong damn side of the garage.
    You mean they might have to reverse their vehicle into the garage?(Or reverse the way they entered it.) "OH NOES!"
    ivan, this is concern as a long extension cord for this type of use with probably be comparable to buying a marine extension cord. They run about $220 or so. Not the end of the world, but another annoyance.[/quote:36awsmnn]
    Given that you can hardly get a tail light lens from the dealer for under $220, I think that it'll probably cost more. I imagine that it'll need/have electronics in the cord to monitor if its properly connected and if the voltage is right. Again, not the end of the world, but its the kind of nickel and dime type of thing that pisses people off.
    Proud member of the '09 Phanters! K.I.L.L. S.M.U.R.F.S.
    Have you ever wondered if your mom kissed you goodnight after giving your dad a blowjob? You are now. "To be second in space is to be second in everything," LBJ

+ Reply to thread

Posting rules

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts