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Thread: Welcome to the next Pandemic

  1. #1
    Administrator CatInASuit's avatar
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    Default Welcome to the next Pandemic

    So, it looks like the latest virus outbreak which is going to wipe out mankind is Swine Flu, following on from Ebola, Sars and Bird Flu.

    Story Here

    Of course, the next stories are that all Americans are being told to wear face masks if they are concerned.

    So, who thinks this could be:

    a) serious enough we should take precautions
    b) another media fuelled story looking for ratings
    c) released by a secret government agency trying to distract people from the financial crisis
    d) other
    e) All of the above
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  2. #2
    Stegodon Walker in Eternity's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Well according to todays Metro the swine flu could kill up to 120M people. That's bad, but it won't put a sizeable dent in the world population, which is currently running at just over 6.8Bn. So 120 million deaths would be less than 1.8% of the current world population.

    The printed version said that the diease was fatal in 2% of cases, but this does not appear in the online version.

    It also appears that anti-viral drugs are effective against this strain.

    So I think there is a danger, but it has been exagerated. Of course that doesn't mean that we shouldn't take precautions or be prepared.
    Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth - Marcus Aurelius

  3. #3
    Stegodon
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    I've had plenty of requests for me to wear a mask recently but thats because I'm an ugly fucker.

    I think that because it is being taken seriously internationally it wont have the same effect as the Spanish Flu pandemic.

    It is not a government plot,if the U.K civil service was involved then their cunning plan to infect the populace would probably end up with a larger number then usual of well people walking about.
    Thirty minutes of Googling not only doesn't make you an expert in a subject,it doesn't even make you right.Real life experience and education will win out every single time

  4. #4
    Oliphaunt featherlou's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    I did a little research when I heard about the Swine Flu coming around (I know - I'm such a weirdo! Researching instead of panicking blindly!), and there is a weird component to this Swine Flu - it seems like it is much worse a disease in Mexico than in the US, and they don't really have an explanation for that. I found that quite interesting.

    And I have no intention of stopping my hand-washing and not touching contaminated things habits, even if people do have an idea that you must continually challenge your immune system. I don't need to challenge it with potentially fatal pathogens, thanks.

  5. #5
    Oliphaunt featherlou's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Oh, xkcd, is there nothing you don't have an appropriate comic for? (I especially like the one about Madagascar - *some*body's been playing Pandemic!)

  6. #6
    Stegodon
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Evidence is fairly mounting up for the media scare hypothesis. A selection of headlines from this morning:

    DEADLY VIRUS IS HERE
    KILLER FLU REACHES BRITAIN
    SWINE FLU ATTACKS BRITS

    being the calm and measured response to the fact that a horde of two returning honeymooners are a) already in controlled environment, b) are not in a critical or threatening condition but c) do have swine flu. Even the Beeb online is leading with "Swine Flu Cannot Be Controlled" as the best way to report the WHO's upgrading of alert status.

    A more frivolous approach to this ghastly plague gave us:

    PIGS 'ERE
    amrussell on SDMB

  7. #7
    Elephant CRSP's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    The media have been dieing for this for years. First H5N1, then SARS, now finally they've got a disease that seems to be killing people in numbers that's also spreading around the world.
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  8. #8
    Oliphaunt
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Yeah, this is fairly ridiculous so far. 50 cases with no fatalities in the US - when we lose 37,000 people to influenza annually? Pfft.

    Of course, we talked about this in Microbiology class yesterday, and my teacher spent most of the discussion shaking her head in bemusement as we regaled her with scary headlines. She admitted that it would "be interesting" to see how it all turns out, but it's hardly worth losing our heads over at this point. She also quizzed us on the difference between morbidity (how many people get sick when exposed) and mortality (how many people die of it). Hidden deep underneath these scary headlines is the actual information that this is a pretty mild influenza, and very few people are dying of it.
    Whatever became of the moment when one first knew about death? There must have been one. A moment. In childhood. When it first occurred to you that you don't go on forever. Must have been shattering. Stamped into one's memory. And yet, I can't remember it.

  9. #9
    aka ivan the not-quite-as-terrible ivan astikov's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    We know it is 2% fatal*, but do we have a percentage figure for its communicability?

    As an aside, if things get worse in Mexico, aren't US/Mexico border guards going to have a job on their hands?

    * Or so I've read!
    To sleep, perchance to experience amygdalocortical activation and prefrontal deactivation.

  10. #10
    Oliphaunt
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Quote Originally posted by ivan astikov
    We know it is 2% fatal*, but do we have a percentage figure for its communicability?
    Nope.
    Q: How easy is it to catch this virus?

    A: Scientists don't yet know if it takes fairly close or prolonged contact with someone who's sick, or if it's more easily spread. But in general, flu viruses spread through uncovered coughs and sneezes or — and this is important — by touching your mouth or nose with unwashed hands. Flu viruses can live on surfaces for several hours, like a doorknob just touched by someone who sneezed into his hand.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090427/ap_ ... dZa5LVJRIF
    And, really, with less than 1500 cases of the illness worldwide, that 2% mortality rate is at best an educated guess. It's not enough people for statistical certainty. And at least as of yesterday, the deaths in Mexico hadn't all been confirmed due to swine flu; one possible reason why people are dying of it there and not elsewhere may be that they're dying of something else entirely. It's also possible (and we should hope, actually) that the virus is already mutating itself into a much milder form, only a relatively few generations into the game. If Mexico is where it started and the virus is already weakening, we'd expect to see a higher mortality rate there than anywhere else. (Of course, airplane travel makes these old rules of epidemiology a little suspect, but still...)
    Q: Why are people dying in Mexico and not here?

    A: That's a mystery. First, understand that no one really knows just how many people in Mexico are dying of this flu strain, or how many have it. Only a fraction of the suspected deaths have been tested and confirmed as swine flu, and some initially suspected cases were caused by something else.
    My guess? Next week we'll see panicking about avian flu all over again, after swine flu wears itself out as a news story.
    Whatever became of the moment when one first knew about death? There must have been one. A moment. In childhood. When it first occurred to you that you don't go on forever. Must have been shattering. Stamped into one's memory. And yet, I can't remember it.

  11. #11
    Oliphaunt featherlou's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    If nothing else, hopefully there will be a few more people getting the message of how not to transmit communicable diseases out of this. I'm seriously considering stopping handshaking altogether, because I have zero faith in anyone else having a clean hand and I hate getting colds and flus.

  12. #12
    Stegodon
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Quote Originally posted by WhyNot
    Q: Why are people dying in Mexico and not here?

    A: That's a mystery. First, understand that no one really knows just how many people in Mexico are dying of this flu strain, or how many have it. Only a fraction of the suspected deaths have been tested and confirmed as swine flu, and some initially suspected cases were caused by something else.
    I had the thought as well that it might have already mutated in some cases, to a milder form. We only started hearing about this now, but it's been going on in Mexico for about a month, or so it seems. People who died (actually died of swine flu, that is) may have had much longer or repeated exposure, and certainly the standard of care (and the prompting for going to the doctor) is very different than in the US or the West in general.

    I think the media should be reporting on this, but the way they are going about it seems to be to try to cause as much panic as possible.

  13. #13
    Oliphaunt featherlou's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Have you met the media? They seem to have decided that's their job - make the news.

  14. #14
    Stegodon
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Oh yes, I have fucking met the fucking media.

    Is there anything at all that could swing the pendulum away from this kind of media-behaviour? I don't know.

  15. #15
    Stegodon
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Geez Lou-eeze. I'm getting over an unhappy bout of bronchitis and had an appointment at the local health clinic this morning. You'd have thought I was flicking leprotic skin at the children from the glares I got when I coughed into my tissue.

    I really wish people would calm down.
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  16. #16
    Stegodon
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Life is fatal in 100% of the cases.
    I am not a professional chef, but I dress like one at home.

  17. #17
    Oliphaunt featherlou's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Quote Originally posted by phouka
    Geez Lou-eeze. I'm getting over an unhappy bout of bronchitis and had an appointment at the local health clinic this morning. You'd have thought I was flicking leprotic skin at the children from the glares I got when I coughed into my tissue.

    I really wish people would calm down.
    Calm, but not comatose. I was watching a story on our local news yesterday about a woman who is freshly back from Mexico and feels like she is getting sick - she was shuttled from clinic to urgent care facility to clinic, back and forth, and none of them seemed interested in giving her a mask or anything. Just take your infectious germs and keep spreading them around, lady; we have other patients to look after here. Of course, once she's infected an entire quadrant of Calgary, they'll have PLENTY of patients to look after. I understand that this swine flu isn't more fatal than your average influenza, but I don't think they should encourage anyone with any type of flu to spread it around.

    ETA: It might help to provide some context - I can guarantee you that every waiting room she was in was full to the brim with patients. Clinics are like that in Calgary constantly due to our ongoing healthcare crisis here.

  18. #18
    Content Generator AllWalker's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Quote Originally posted by featherlou
    Oh, xkcd, is there nothing you don't have an appropriate comic for? (I especially like the one about Madagascar - *some*body's been playing Pandemic!)
    You know, the Prime Minister of Madagascar is missing out on a golden comedic chance here. I keep scouring the news, looking for the announcement that the island has gone into complete lockdown.

    Disappointing.
    Something tells me we haven't seen the last of foreshadowing.

  19. #19
    Administrator CatInASuit's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Just so we don't forget how deadly Swine Flu is, the British Government is sending every household in the country a leaflet about it and how to prevent it. Of course, the 7 people in Falkirk with suspected Swine Flu don't have it, but we won't let that get in the way.

    I'm just waiting for the world to start sockpiling paper masks everywhere. Must be one of the few industries to escape the credit crunch.
    In the land of the blind, the one-arm man is king.

  20. #20
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Quote Originally posted by Chefguy
    Life is fatal in 100% of the cases.
    Or, as GB Shaw once put it, "The ultimate statistic is this: one, out of every one, dies." Such a cheery way to start the morning.

    While there has been some media hype (Fox, true to form, is using this as an opportunity to harp on the problem of illegal immigration ), others, like the local paper, have been playing it straight. At times like this it's hard to know whether to excoriate hyperventilating media or those clueless folks like phouka reported who overreact to everything.

    Seems to me the medical community is playing it right: it is keeping an eye on something that has potential to be a deadly pandemic.

  21. #21
    Oliphaunt jali's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    http://www.keyc.com/node/21214
    Meanwhile, concerns about swine flu have put a Minnesota company into action.3-M makes masks that can prevent the spread of germs from people who are coughing and sneezing.The company is one of the leading mask-makers in the world.Now, 3-M is getting more orders for the specially-designed masks that prevent the spread of illness so the company is ramping up production to meet the increased demand.
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  22. #22
    Stegodon Walker in Eternity's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    This site has some interesting information regarding the flu in the UK.

    Such as:

    * Deaths as a direct result of flu infection are often under-reported because flu is not documented as the cause of death on the death certificate. Instead, the death may be attributed to myocardial infarction (heart attack) or pneumonia.
    * Even in non-epidemic years as many as 3,000 to 4,000 excess deaths are attributable to flu in the UK. During epidemics this level is much higher - for example during the epidemic of 1989-90 there were almost 30,000 excess deaths in Great Britain attributable to flu
    * The UK experienced the seventh consecutive year of low levels of influenza activity during the 2006/07 season with a peak of 44.8 cases per 100,000 reported in mid-February. The highest rates in recent times were in the winter of 1989/90 when a peak of 583 cases per 100,000 population was seen.
    It also showed me that it was probably a stupid decision on my part not to get vaccinated when I had the chance.

    # Each year the World Health Organisation (WHO) announces the strains of flu virus which their reference laboratories have identified throughout the world as the likely cause of outbreaks during the following winter. To date, the WHO recommendations have shown a good match between the forecast strains and the actual strains which cause the outbreaks.
    # The flu vaccines which are currently available are clinically effective and give 70-80% protection against infection with strains related to those contained in the vaccine.
    # Repeat annual vaccination is necessary due to the changing strains.
    # Vaccination reduces the possibility of death as a result of flu infection by as much as 69%6 and prevent 43-65% of deaths from influenza associated respiratory illness.
    # Generally the risks of serious complications and death associated with influenza can be avoided through repeated annual flu vaccination
    Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth - Marcus Aurelius

  23. #23
    aka ivan the not-quite-as-terrible ivan astikov's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Quote Originally posted by jali
    http://www.keyc.com/node/21214
    Meanwhile, concerns about swine flu have put a Minnesota company into action.3-M makes masks that can prevent the spread of germs from people who are coughing and sneezing.The company is one of the leading mask-makers in the world.Now, 3-M is getting more orders for the specially-designed masks that prevent the spread of illness so the company is ramping up production to meet the increased demand.
    Which is why I can't get my feeble brain around 'recessions'! Surely every cloud has some silver lining, or is that just wishful thinking?
    To sleep, perchance to experience amygdalocortical activation and prefrontal deactivation.

  24. #24
    Stegodon
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Yeah, but in a recession the ratio of cloud to silver lining is higher.

    As ever, the Daily Mash covers the story behind the story.
    amrussell on SDMB

  25. #25
    Oliphaunt featherlou's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Quote Originally posted by Walker in Eternity
    <snip>
    It also showed me that it was probably a stupid decision on my part not to get vaccinated when I had the chance.
    <snip>
    I get my vaccination every year, in spite of being in general good health and rarely contracting influenza. I just HATE being sick. My husband with asthma, on the other hand, really should get vaccinated, but won't due to needlephobia. I figure my vaccination helps him too, though.

    I see from the news there has now been a death in the US from swine flu, and 13 confirmed cases in Canada (with two in Calgary).

  26. #26
    Stegodon Walker in Eternity's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Mine wasn't a phobia, I had just heard that a high percentage of people who had the flu jab got ill anyway (kind of like a mini flu). Of course this is purely anecdotal and there is probably little empirical evidence to back it up.

    I'll definitely have it next year, if I'm still here.
    Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth - Marcus Aurelius

  27. #27
    Elephant Tuckerfan's avatar
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  28. #28
    Oliphaunt jali's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Funny as hell!
    They weren't singing....they were just honking.
    Glee 2009

  29. #29
    Oliphaunt featherlou's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Quote Originally posted by Walker in Eternity
    Mine wasn't a phobia, I had just heard that a high percentage of people who had the flu jab got ill anyway (kind of like a mini flu). Of course this is purely anecdotal and there is probably little empirical evidence to back it up.

    I'll definitely have it next year, if I'm still here.
    I never have any problems with the flu shot at all, except for a sore bicep for a day or two.

  30. #30
    Stegodon
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Yeah, the flu shot does hurt a bit (all my friends and I had it for free from the NHS, thank you socialised medicine). But there is certainly not an increased chance of illness with it.

    The vaccines are normally about 70% effective, so it won't necessarily help if the strain you catch is not one included in the vaccines (prediction is hard!). But there is also some evidence I have seen that even in those cases it has been shown to reduce chance of complications.

    Get the shot!

  31. #31
    Oliphaunt featherlou's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    So I might not be completely nuts for thinking that my colds are milder when I get a flu shot?

  32. #32
    XJETGIRLX
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    According to a new article posted today, the WHO has only confirmed 79 total cases worldwide, and only 7 deaths are confirmed.

    Normal flu is still more of a threat.

  33. #33
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Statistical model predicts 1K cases within three weeks.
    Indiana University Rudy Professor of Informatics Alessandro Vespignani, an internationally recognized expert on the statistical analysis and computer modeling of epidemics, said two different swine influenza infection models generated on April 27 both predict about 1,000 cases in the United States within three weeks.
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  34. #34
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Egypt's taking a "rational" stance over the matter.
    Egypt began slaughtering the roughly 300,000 pigs in the country Wednesday as a precaution against swine flu even though no cases have been reported here, infuriating farmers who blocked streets and stoned vehicles of Health Ministry workers who came to carry out the government's order.
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  35. #35
    Stegodon
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    So they just closed all of the schools in my county, including Huntsville City schools, until Monday because of two "probable" cases of swine flu at a local elementary school. They've closed that particular school for seven days.

  36. #36
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    My wife is going into panic lockdown mode, already talking about stockpiling supplies in case we can't go outside for a few weeks. She also wanted me to wear a mask for a century ride next week (as in, an outdoor event where the nearest people will be 5-20 feet away at the closest).

    Did I mention there hasn't even been a confirmed case in the entire country yet?
    No cage, thank you. I'm a human being.

  37. #37
    Stegodon Walker in Eternity's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Quote Originally posted by XJETGIRLX
    According to a new article posted today, the WHO has only confirmed 79 total cases worldwide, and only 7 deaths are confirmed.

    Normal flu is still more of a threat.
    Exactly, "normal" flu accounts for around 3000 fatalities annually in the UK and about 10 times that in the US, not sure about the stats for th rest of the world. Swine flu will have to up its game if it wants to compete.

    I'm not saying its not dangerous, but there does seem to be a massive overreaction due to media hype.
    Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth - Marcus Aurelius

  38. #38
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Quote Originally posted by Tuckerfan
    Egypt began slaughtering the roughly 300,000 pigs in the country Wednesday as a precaution against swine flu even though no cases have been reported here, infuriating farmers who blocked streets and stoned vehicles of Health Ministry workers who came to carry out the government's order.
    Why would there be 300,000 pigs in Egypt anyway? Are there enough Christians to eat that many?

  39. #39
    Oliphaunt Rube E. Tewesday's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Quote Originally posted by Excalibur
    Quote Originally posted by Tuckerfan
    Egypt began slaughtering the roughly 300,000 pigs in the country Wednesday as a precaution against swine flu even though no cases have been reported here, infuriating farmers who blocked streets and stoned vehicles of Health Ministry workers who came to carry out the government's order.
    Why would there be 300,000 pigs in Egypt anyway? Are there enough Christians to eat that many?
    A little Googling indicates something like 6 to 8 million Coptic Christians in Egypt.

  40. #40
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    You people always drag up the seasonal flu as if it is comparable. You all haven't noticed that the majority of deaths from seasonal flu are the very old and the very young, those with compromised/weak immune systems. Viruses such as SARS, Avian Flu, Swine Flu are hitting those who are healthy adults.
    Luckily this thing responds to current anti-virals, but many places in the world don't have ready access to those. WHO has better things to do than cry wolf (things like malaria prevention); so if they think it's serious, it's a safe bet that it is serious,

  41. #41
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    I agree, fuck the elderly.

  42. #42
    Oliphaunt featherlou's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Well, I'm getting there.

  43. #43
    XJETGIRLX
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Quote Originally posted by BwanaBob
    You people always drag up the seasonal flu as if it is comparable. You all haven't noticed that the majority of deaths from seasonal flu are the very old and the very young, those with compromised/weak immune systems. Viruses such as SARS, Avian Flu, Swine Flu are hitting those who are healthy adults.
    Luckily this thing responds to current anti-virals, but many places in the world don't have ready access to those. WHO has better things to do than cry wolf (things like malaria prevention); so if they think it's serious, it's a safe bet that it is serious,
    The WHO has only confirmed 79 cases and 7 deaths worldwide.

    A pandemic alert level of 5 simply means that humans in at least two countries have been affected.

    The WHO fact sheet on normal influenza states that "Worldwide, these annual epidemics result in about three to five million cases of severe illness, and about 250 000 to 500 000 deaths."

    It's not even close enough to being as threatening as people are making it out to be. And I think seasonal flu is absolutely comparable, and far, far more threatening than swine flu, considering only seven deaths have been confirmed worldwide.

  44. #44
    Elephant Tuckerfan's avatar
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    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Quote Originally posted by featherlou
    Well, I'm getting there.
    Have you got your t-shirt yet?
    Proud member of the '09 Phanters! K.I.L.L. S.M.U.R.F.S.
    Have you ever wondered if your mom kissed you goodnight after giving your dad a blowjob? You are now. "To be second in space is to be second in everything," LBJ

  45. #45
    Banned
    Registered
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Michigan
    Posts
    3,590

    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    cytokine storms ftw

  46. #46
    aka ivan the not-quite-as-terrible ivan astikov's avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2009
    Location
    moston, UK.
    Posts
    4,779

    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    I tried to get through to the 'Swine Flu Hotline' earlier, but all I could get was crackling.
    To sleep, perchance to experience amygdalocortical activation and prefrontal deactivation.

  47. #47
    Oliphaunt featherlou's avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2009
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    3,209

    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Quote Originally posted by Tuckerfan
    Quote Originally posted by featherlou
    Well, I'm getting there.
    Have you got your t-shirt yet?
    I actually meant that I was getting elderly, but cool t-shirts!

    And Ivan wins the thread.

  48. #48
    Oliphaunt Rube E. Tewesday's avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    7,743

    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Quote Originally posted by featherlou
    And Ivan wins the thread.
    Yeah, that was a little bit of the awesome.

  49. #49
    aka ivan the not-quite-as-terrible ivan astikov's avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2009
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    moston, UK.
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    4,779

    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    * walks like an Egyptian *

    "Go me, go me. Go me, go me."
    To sleep, perchance to experience amygdalocortical activation and prefrontal deactivation.

  50. #50
    Elephant Tuckerfan's avatar
    Registered
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Gallatin, TN
    Posts
    957

    Default Re: Welcome to the next Pandemic

    Quote Originally posted by Rube E. Tewesday
    Quote Originally posted by featherlou
    And Ivan wins the thread.
    Yeah, that was a little bit of the awesome.
    I like Colbert's Enemy Swine: A Pigcalypse Now: The Coming Oinkmageddon and Stewart's Snoutbreak '09
    Proud member of the '09 Phanters! K.I.L.L. S.M.U.R.F.S.
    Have you ever wondered if your mom kissed you goodnight after giving your dad a blowjob? You are now. "To be second in space is to be second in everything," LBJ

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