MLB Predictions Contest - Part the Third: The NL East

[storyteller]

Welcome to the National League East, where Men are Men, and Boys are the Incredibly Fortunate Winners of a Fluke World Championship.

Continuing the discussion from the NL West thread, we move now to the NL Central. Let's review:

LAST SEASON
The Phillies won the division with 92 wins. The Mets finished second in wins (89), but certainly first in the all-important categories of anguished telephone calls to talk radio programs and most at bats wasted on Luis Castillo. The two teams tied for second-most runs in the NL (behind the Cubs) with 799; Philly’s superior bullpen, or rather the fact that the Phillies had a bullpen and the Mets had a professional Suck Squad, made the difference.

In third place were the Florida Marlins, who outperformed their Pythagorean expectations by three games, winning 84 with 81-win talent. In the process, they hit more home runs than any NL team other than the Phillies. The Braves finished a distant fourth, with 72 wins. However, the Braves were better, by a bit, than their record suggests, finishing seven games behind their Pythagorean expectation. Washington was bad even by Washington’s standards, losing 102 games and finishing third-from-last in the NL in both pitching and hitting.

The Phillies went to the playoffs, where they got lucky and made the LCS, got lucky again and won the pennant, then got supremely lucky and beat the Tampa Bay Rays for what would technically be called, in the strictest sense, a World Series title.

OFFSEASON

The Phillies’ biggest move was replacing LF Pat Burrell with LF Raul Ibanez, which... OK. They traded for backup C Ronny Paulino of Pittsburgh. Other than that, they signed a bit of flotsam, and let a bit of flotsam go.

The Mets added pitchers Francisco Rodriguez, J.J. Putz, Tim Redding, Sean Green, Freddy Garcia, Ron Villone, and Fernando Nieve. These guys replace outgoing pitchers Pedro Martinez and Aaron “Crushing Loss” Heilman, among others. Incoming position players include OF Jeremy Reed, OF Bobby Kielty, and IF Alex Cora.

The Marlins lost, via trade or free agency, 1B Mike Jacobs, RP Arthur Rhodes, SP Mark Hendrickson, OF Josh Willingham, P Scott Olsen, and catchers Matt Traenor and Paul LoDuca. They added infielder Emiliano Bonifacio and pitchers Dan Meyer and Scott Proctor.

The Braves brought in two starters - Javier Vazquez by trade and Derek Lowe via free agency, to replace departing injury-bait John Smoltz and Mike Hampton. The lineup remains mostly untouched.

In between bouts of corruption and/or stunning incompetence, Jim Bowden continued to make changes in Washington. Say goodbye to Chad Cordero, Odalis Perez, Emilio Bonifacio, Tim Redding, and Jesus Colome; let’s say a big “hello” to Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, and Scott Olsen, the big prizes of an offseason that also saw the arrival of Corey Patterson, Josh Towers, Daniel Cabrera, Jose Castillo, and a raft of others.

So: your predictions? Also, if you haven’t contributed to either the NL West or NL Central threads, hie thee on over there and give us your best guess at total number of wins per team. It’s sort of a competition, albeit one without rules, standards, or prizes of any kind.

[What Exit?]

The Mets have improved the bullpen but I am not so sure about the starters and I wait to see who they add to the offense in June or July. There has to be one more move to put the Mets over the top in my opinion.

Right now on paper I still think the Phillies have a slight edge. I think the two will battle for the Division and probably the wildcard. Atlanta has me intrigued but I have seen too little of the team so far. The Marlins might improve but not enough. The Nats will still be bad, but not as bad. Overall I think this division improved across the board as the rest of the NL got worse or no better at best.

Phillies will win 93
Mets will blow fewer games and add a bat and win 93
Marlins will see improvement and maturity and get to 86.
Atlanta will climb back to 81
Nationals will climb to 70.

[Ichbin Dubist]

Notes: (a) these are gut choices. (b) I am a Mets fan.

1. NYM 92-70
2. PHI 88-74
3. ATL 82-80
4. WSH 72-90
5. FLA 60-102

Sports fans have a weird faith that once something has happened a few times it will continue to happen forever. Nonetheless I am boldly predicting no Mets collapse in September or any other month. Just based on bullpen luck alone, I think the Mets will stay a few games ahead of Philadelphia. I think both teams will find a bat and a pitcher, respectively, before the trade deadline.

I don't see Atlanta as being all that much better, but let's give 'em in improvement over their Pythagorean 78 wins last year. I see the Senators (whatever) as being better, and the Marlins finally falling off the table.

[hawkeyeop]

I think the Mets are the best team in the NL. I thought that in 2007 and 2008, so it doesn't necessarily mean the playoffs are inevitable. Minaya did what he usually does, aggresively and effectively handle the big issues, while being ignoring or worsening the small ones. Krod was a fine deal and the Putz one was inspired, but I still worry about the rest of the pen, especially if one of those 2 were to get hurt, not an entirely unlikely scenario. The Mets have a lack of hard throwing youngsters, and they tend to give away the ones that they do develop (Lindstrom, Heath Bell). The rotation should be fine if Santana is healthy, and somewhat less than fine if he isn't. I wouldn't have given Perez ten million a year, he is a league avg pitcher and not one I'd trust in a big game. I don't think Pelfrey will be quite as good this season, but Maine, Perez, and he should make an adequate 2-4. The fifth starter competition is a mess, but hopefully someone will come out of it to pitch halfway decently. I think the best bet is Niese.

The offensive core is still as good as any in the game, and that makes up for a lot of defiencies elsewhere. They pretty much ignored offense in the offseason, which was a mistake given how many undervalued players were available. I mean how do you not sign Hudson at that price? They will be subpar at catcher, 2nd, and the corner outfield, as I don't think Tatis has another miracle season in him. That said, they had those problems last year too, and really shouldn't be any worse at those spots. In fact the corner of should be better, it was a brutal until Murphy and Evans came up.

All and all a bit better and a bit luckier. Let's put them down for 94 wins.

The Phillies on the hand, I expect to regress. There bullpen was unholy last year, and that won't happen again. Lidge will blow some saves, and his setup men, mostly journeymen having career years, will revert back to their usual selves. Hamel is great, but the back of their rotation has the potential to be brutal.

They bring back the same offense, only substituting one terrible defensive outfielder for an older, left-handed version. This lineup is going get killed by lefties at the end of games. Howard has regressed, since he reached the majors, and I think he goes further this year. I wouldn't be surprised if he hit below 240. Rollins and Utley remain great, while the rest of the lineup varies between terrible and mediocre.

84 wins seems right to me. They have the look of the Angels who stood pat after winning, and ended up under 500 the next season.

The Braves had an interesting off-season. They radically upgraded their pitching staff, while failing to improve their offense due to late spurs from Furcal and Griffey. The move will do wonders for Vazquez, turning him back to the days he was a Cy Young contender in Mon. Add in Lowe and they have 2 durable co-aces, something no one else in the division has. Jurrjens and the Japanese import should be solid mid rotation starters. The only weakness is the fifth spot, where Glavine is pretty much done, but he only really needs to be better than Livan Hernandez or Kyle Kendrick. The bullpen can't help but be healthier than last year, and should be a plus.

The offense will be strong in the infield, and terrible in the outfield, pretty similar to last year. I would expect them to score about the same amount of runs as last year. Perhaps a few more, as finding improvements in the outfield shouldn't be too hard. For example, almost anyone would be better than Francouer last season. They do lose Teixeria, but they only had for a half season last year anyway, and the first half is his weaker half.

Improved pitching and normal luck bumps the Braves back to 88 wins.

The Nats have a sad future, but the short team should be okay. There lineup will only be really poor at 2nd, while should have pluses at the corners, and in the outfield. The pitching isn't good, but Olsen and Cabrera are better than they had before. 77 wins for the Nats.

The Marlins overachieved last year, and will head back down. There is a difference between the Rays, young and insanely talented, and the Marlins who are mostly just young. There is certainly some really good players here, Ramirez is a star and Nolasco was on the best pitchers in baseball the 2nd half of last year, but they lack depth. The starters will suffers some attrition, the bullpen will not be as good, and the lineup will have some glaring weaknesses. I expect growing pains all around, especially with guys like Maybin who really aren't quite ready for the majors. Oh and the defense is going to be painful. 71 wins.

To recap
Mets - 94
Braves - 88
Phillies - 84
Nationals - 77
Marlins - 71

[storyteller]

So let's see.

I think the Mets win the division, but I think it's a close thing and I certainly don't see them as the class of the National League. I think the offense will correct downward a bit. I really, really hope Carlos Delgado hits for a full season like he hit in the second half of last year, but it's not a great bet. I think he'll slip a bit, and Fernando Tatis is a lock to be worse - probably markedly worse - than last year. Ryan Church is a cypher. What I don't see is even a single spot in the lineup where the Mets are likely to be significantly better than last year. Which is a shame. I will never till I die understand the decision to not sign Hudson, or even Adam Dunn. For maybe a combined $9M per, Dunn and Hudson would probably have locked up the division.

The pitching will be better. There's been a lot of talk about the rotation, but there's not much difference between this rotation and last year's rotation and last year's rotation was good enough to win 89 games. I agree with hawk that Perez is overpriced, but once they didn't sign Derek Lowe or A.J. Burnett, they basically had no choice - improving the bullpen while hurting the rotation would have been holding steady, at best. A healthy and effective Maine would help a lot, and really all they need is league-average production out of somebody like Jon Niese to be fine. The bullpen improvements were enormous. Net, I'll say they've improved by three games, and win 92 this year.

The Phillies, I agree with hawk. The Burrell-for-Ibanez swap really didn't make them any better. Absent any other changes, assuming another 92 wins for the Phillies means assuming the bullpen will be as good as it was last year. That's just not going to happen. I don't see them falling off altogether, because their lineup is deeper than the Mets lineup, but 90 wins seems optimistic.

The Braves got quite a bit better in the rotation, but I think they're going to struggle to score runs. If Chipper Jones misses any significant amount of time due to injury - and he's getting old - their lineup drops from middling to poor.

Florida's going backward, but by ten games? Looking at it... yeah, I think so. This is not a good team. Washington? Well, Dukes actually looks like he can maybe play (I just looked, and his OBP was .386 in limited usage last year; that's not bad at all). Milledge could improve. Dunn is a major upgrade in left. Ryan Zimmerman almost has to bounce back. If whatever magic spell was cast on Cristian Guzman doesn't run out, if Nick Johnson stays healthy - the offense could be above the mean. They're not going to hit like Philly or New York, but they could be as good as the Braves offensively. With Willingham and Willie Harris and Austin Kearns, they even have a little offensive depth. Who knows about the pitching, of course: they're putting a lot of faith in guys like John Lannan and Scott Olsen and - cringe - Daniel Cabrera. But this might not be the worst year ever.

Final predictions:

Mets - 92
Phillies - 89
Braves - 87
Nationals - 78
Marlins - 71

[hawkeyeop]

Story you are way off. The Ph... No um the Marl... Wait, you practically agree with me across the board. How am I supposed to argue with that? Think of the children!

As for Perez, I'm a generally believer in a run scored is equal to a run saved. There are some difference at extremes, but at that point I let Perez go, and spend my money on Hudson and an outfielder of choice. I'd then try to deal Murphy for some pitching (package to the Giants for Sanchez maybe.)

[dread pirate jimbo]

I don't have much to add. I think the Phillies and Mets will be fighting it out right down to the last week and the loser gets the wildcard. The Braves are improved but not a contender. The Nationals won't break .500. And the Marlins are in for a 70-win season.

[What Exit?]

I hear that Pelfrey is doing very good this Spring and that Livan should win the 5 spot.