MLB Spring Training

[silenus]

So....what's it look like so far for your team?

For the Dodgers, it's the usual mess. On the upside, we are real close to getting Manny resigned. We has a plethora of infielders, all of whom are competent at the least. The hitting seems to be there no matter what configuration Joe desides on for the team. On the downside, we have no pitching. None. Bupkis. Nada. Zilch.

This could be a long season.

[What Exit?]

A-Rod has a cyst, but everything else seems to be going fine in Yankees land

[Taumpy]

everything else seems to be going fine in Yankees land

Unfortunately.

As a Red Sox fan I'm a little worried. Lots of question marks, and too many guys that need to be healthy. That usually ends up blowing up in our faces. And now with the Yankees AND Rays to worry about?

Of course talking like this is like coming down finally from a five year high and back to business as usual.

[Asimovian]

So....what's it look like so far for your team?

For the Dodgers, it's the usual mess. On the upside, we are real close to getting Manny resigned. We has a plethora of infielders, all of whom are competent at the least. The hitting seems to be there no matter what configuration Joe desides on for the team. On the downside, we have no pitching. None. Bupkis. Nada. Zilch.

This could be a long season.

I'm standing by my pledge that Jason Schmidt is going to come out of nowhere and save the team this year.

More realistically, though, I've gotta say that the pitching staff looked reasonably sharp when I was there on Sunday. I was happy to see Kuroda throw a couple of scoreless innings. I think if we get a couple of positive surprises out of the bullpen, we might actually be in much better shape than anyone thinks.

That is, of course, a mighty big "if."

[silenus]

Well, the Dodgers have Manny back on a 2 year deal. The hitting is in place. Now, the long, desperate search for arms.

[What Exit?]

Well, the Dodgers have Manny back on a 2 year deal. The hitting is in place. Now, the long, desperate search for arms.

Happy Birthday. Boras called up and asked for the last offer and apparently accepted all the deferred money at no interest. He did not fail Manny, but he only got him and extra $5 million in the end but $25 of the $45 is deferred. The Dodgers played this perfectly. If they got Manny down to less than $20m he would have been a major headache. Instead Manny has a reason to be both happy and motivated to play hard and do great.

[storyteller]

Well, the Dodgers have Manny back on a 2 year deal. The hitting is in place. Now, the long, desperate search for arms.

I think adding Manny makes the Dodgers solid favorites in the NL West, anyway. The Padres are going to be awful. The Rockies can't really compete. The Giants offense is going to be bad - not historically awful, but their cleanup hitter might still be Benjie Molina and they have a few genuine black holes in their order, which the Dodgers do not have; the top of the Giant rotation is quite good, of course, but the bottom half - Barry Zito and Jonathan Sanchez - isn't exactly world-beating. I think they'll finish at about .500.

The Diamondbacks are going to be pretty good, and if Justin Upton pulls it together they might be even better than that, but their lineup is pretty well flawed. Of their expected starting lineup, only Stephen Drew is a clear, certain plus starter at his position: Upton, Conor Jackson, and Chris Young could be an OK outfield, but who on this team hits like Manny? The rotation is pretty good:

Brandon Webb - 139
Dan Haren - 138
Doug Davis - 105
Max Scherzer - 151 (but in very limited innings)
Jon Garland - 91

So that's two really great pitchers, one guy who has the potential to be good but hasn't really proven anything yet, and two guys filling space and eating innings. Here's the Dodgers projected rotation:

Chad Billingsley - 135
Hiroki Kuroda - 114
Randy Wolf - 93
Clayton Kershaw - 100
Jason Schmidt - 72 (in 2007, in 25 innings)

Billingsley is not a huge downgrade from Webb. Kuroda is not as good as Haren. Kershaw and Scherzer are both question marks, who could be anything from mild disappointments to big hits, but Kershaw's ceiling is almost certainly higher. Wolf and Doug Davis are the same pitcher. And Jon Garland's major advantage over Jason Schmidt is that the former is reliable and the latter is obviously not; if the Dodgers can get league-average production out of Schmidt, they'll be ahead of the game here. So the Diamondbacks' rotation is better, but not overwhelmingly so.

But the lineups! How to look at it? How about this: the Dodgers will field a clearly, markedly better offensive player than the D-backs at first base (James Loney over Chad Tracy, even if Loney doesn't rebound from 2008), second base (Orlando Hudson over Felipe Lopez), catcher (Russell Martin over Chris Snyder), and left field (Manny over Conor Jackson). At best, the D-backs may be able to get equal production out of center (Matt Kemp vs. Chris Young) and third base (Casey Blake vs. Mark Reynolds), but that's assuming Reynolds improves a lot, Blake gets worse, and Young becomes about 50% better while Kemp stagnates (none of which are good assumptions, really). The only places on the field where I'd give the D-backs an edge are short, where Drew might put it all together this year and hit 30 home runs (but it's not like the Dodgers are going to throw out Rey Ordonez at short, either) and right, where Upton is potentially, but not currently, better than Andre Ethier. So if things break a certain way, the Dodgers could be better at every single spot in the lineup - plus, the D-backs have no one as game-breaking as Ramirez, and the one guy who could be (Justin Upton) is only 20 years old.

I think the Dodgers win the NL West by at least five games. They're going to be really good this year.

[silenus]

I think the Dodgers win the NL West by at least five games. They're going to be really good this year.

From your keyboard to Ghu's ears!

I'm not even going to start to unclench until I see a solid arm in the #4 spot in the rotation and some big improvement in middle relief and closer. We have always won on pitching, and I'm not going to believe that we can do it any other way until it happens. Luckily, we still have the best farm system out there, and some depth in the chart that lets Coletti deal for what we have to have if needs must.

The Diamondbacks have proven over the years that it is a mistake to ever write them off, even late in the season. I think the Dodgers will be looking over their shoulders well into September.

And I must object to your analysis of the Padres. They are, without a doubt, the best AA team in the Majors.

[hawkeyeop]

I think adding Manny makes the Dodgers solid favorites in the NL West, anyway. The Padres are going to be awful. The Rockies can't really compete. The Giants offense is going to be bad - not historically awful, but their cleanup hitter might still be Benjie Molina and they have a few genuine black holes in their order, which the Dodgers do not have; the top of the Giant rotation is quite good, of course, but the bottom half - Barry Zito and Jonathan Sanchez - isn't exactly world-beating. I think they'll finish at about .500.

I have to join another message board to argue with you. Sigh. Anyways I don't think this is the Dodger's division to win, and I don't think it is just a two team division. The Padres will be more mediocre than awful. They aren't all that different than the pennant contender from two years ago. A lot of things went wrong last year, and not all of that will happen again. They got some star power, Adrian Gonzalez might be the most underrated hitter in the game, and the pitching staff is pretty good. I'll put them in the mid 70's

I agree on the Giants, except Sanchez is a stud, and will be one of the best 4/5 starters in the league. And really Zito isn't bad for a 5 starter. I'd rather have him then say Tim Redding. They will be better than last year, but they overachieved, so the wins will about the same

The Rockies on the other hand will be a contender. They had some growing pains, but their pitching came around towards the end of the season. They lost Holliday, but Stewart isn't a bad replacement. If Tulo is bounces back it would completely make up for the loss. I think this a "Ewing theory team" They will be better after they lose their best player.

The Diamondbacks are going to be pretty good, and if Justin Upton pulls it together they might be even better than that, but their lineup is pretty well flawed. Of their expected starting lineup, only Stephen Drew is a clear, certain plus starter at his position: Upton, Conor Jackson, and Chris Young could be an OK outfield, but who on this team hits like Manny? The rotation is pretty good:

No one can quite hit like Manny, although I wouldn't be stunned if Upton or Drew had a better offensive year than him. The Dbacks have few guarantees, but they aren't really terrible anywhere, and they have a lot of breakout candidates. All they need is Upton to follow Griffey's career path (which he appears to be doing thus far), Drew to put together a full season like his 2nd half, Young to hit 280, Jackson to develop some power, or Tracy and Reynolds turn into consistent threats. If 2 or 3 of these happen the Dbacks will have a good lineup. If not the Dbacks lineup should at least be decent, which could be enough, since the pitching is fantastic and the division is weak.

Brandon Webb - 139
Dan Haren - 138
Doug Davis - 105
Max Scherzer - 151 (but in very limited innings)
Jon Garland - 91

So that's two really great pitchers, one guy who has the potential to be good but hasn't really proven anything yet, and two guys filling space and eating innings. Here's the Dodgers projected rotation:

Chad Billingsley - 135
Hiroki Kuroda - 114
Randy Wolf - 93
Clayton Kershaw - 100
Jason Schmidt - 72 (in 2007, in 25 innings)

Billingsley is not a huge downgrade from Webb. Kuroda is not as good as Haren. Kershaw and Scherzer are both question marks, who could be anything from mild disappointments to big hits, but Kershaw's ceiling is almost certainly higher. Wolf and Doug Davis are the same pitcher. And Jon Garland's major advantage over Jason Schmidt is that the former is reliable and the latter is obviously not; if the Dodgers can get league-average production out of Schmidt, they'll be ahead of the game here. So the Diamondbacks' rotation is better, but not overwhelmingly so.

Yes Billingsley is a huge downgrade on Webb. Webb has been the top two in CY Young voting for the last 3 years. He hasn't just been consistently great, he has been consistently healthy too. Billingsly never has had anywhere near that level of success over an extended period of time, and he is already hurting. Kuroda is an innings eater roughly equivlant to Garland (who should improve in the NL). He might be a little better, but I think the league will catch up with him a bit this year. Davis and Wolf aren't the same pitcher, one can stay healthy and one can't. That is a major difference. Max and Kershaw are similar, Scherzer has more major league success, while Kershaw has the higher upside. That leaves us with Haren, one of the top ten starters in the majors, vs Schmidt who hasn't thrown a quality start since 2006. I see the Dbacks as having the an elite staff, duel aces, a high upside 3rd starter, and two slightly below league average pitchers in the back. For the Dodger, I wouldn't pencil anyone for more than 175 innings other than maybe Kuroda. They will get a ton of innings from their 6th, 7th, and 8th best starters, and I don't see those being above replacement level.

But the lineups! How to look at it? How about this: the Dodgers will field a clearly, markedly better offensive player than the D-backs at first base (James Loney over Chad Tracy, even if Loney doesn't rebound from 2008), second base (Orlando Hudson over Felipe Lopez), catcher (Russell Martin over Chris Snyder), and left field (Manny over Conor Jackson). At best, the D-backs may be able to get equal production out of center (Matt Kemp vs. Chris Young) and third base (Casey Blake vs. Mark Reynolds), but that's assuming Reynolds improves a lot, Blake gets worse, and Young becomes about 50% better while Kemp stagnates (none of which are good assumptions, really). The only places on the field where I'd give the D-backs an edge are short, where Drew might put it all together this year and hit 30 home runs (but it's not like the Dodgers are going to throw out Rey Ordonez at short, either) and right, where Upton is potentially, but not currently, better than Andre Ethier. So if things break a certain way, the Dodgers could be better at every single spot in the lineup - plus, the D-backs have no one as game-breaking as Ramirez, and the one guy who could be (Justin Upton) is only 20 years old.

Most of this is fair. I think again you are discounting injury risk though. The Dbacks are much better at short, because Furcal has shown no ability to stay healthy lately. And if Furcal is hurt, well Berroa is pretty much at the level of Rey Ordonez. The Dbacks have a very good catching platoon, but Martin is better. I think Reynolds is equivilant to Blake, and Upton will likely be better than Ethier. The Dodgers have a lot of solid offensive players, but none of them are great players. Manny has had a half a great season in the last 2 seasons, and his defense/base running are big liabilities. Who is the best all around offensive player on the Dodgers? Martin? To me the pitching gap is bigger than the hitting one.

I think the Dodgers win the NL West by at least five games. They're going to be really good this year.

I'll say
Dbacks 88
Rockies 85
Dodgers 84
Padres 76
Giants 73

[Asimovian]

Just a minor point -- Angel Berroa is now with the Yankees. Mark Loretta was brought in during the off season to be the Dodgers' utility infielder.

[Asimovian]

Missed the edit window:

So now that the Dodgers' offensive lineup is pretty well set, what do you do with Juan Pierre if you're McCourt/Colletti/Torre? Do you make an honest effort to try to trade him (even though no one is likely to take him unless the Dodgers eat his contract money)? Or do you sit him on the bench all year, knowing how unhappy he is, because you're worried about one of your outfielders going down?

Assuming you lose an outfielder during the season and Pierre's already gone, your options are to stick Blake DeWitt back at third and move Casey Blake to left, or to see if Jason Repko can stay healthy for a while and play him. I guess the third option is to give this kid Mitch Jones (who has, thus far, been stellar in Spring Training) a shot -- it seemed to work alright for DeWitt last year, so who knows?

Pierre seems to have a good attitude about the business side of things despite clearly being unhappy about having a bench role during the Ramirez Dynasty. I just worry about how well he would handle that for a whole season.

[hawkeyeop]

Missed the edit window:

So now that the Dodgers' offensive lineup is pretty well set, what do you do with Juan Pierre if you're McCourt/Colletti/Torre? Do you make an honest effort to try to trade him (even though no one is likely to take him unless the Dodgers eat his contract money)? Or do you sit him on the bench all year, knowing how unhappy he is, because you're worried about one of your outfielders going down?

Assuming you lose an outfielder during the season and Pierre's already gone, your options are to stick Blake DeWitt back at third and move Casey Blake to left, or to see if Jason Repko can stay healthy for a while and play him. I guess the third option is to give this kid Mitch Jones (who has, thus far, been stellar in Spring Training) a shot -- it seemed to work alright for DeWitt last year, so who knows?

Pierre seems to have a good attitude about the business side of things despite clearly being unhappy about having a bench role during the Ramirez Dynasty. I just worry about how well he would handle that for a whole season.

Pierre has some value as a fifth outfield/pinch runner, but I wouldn't want him playing everyday regardless of who gets hurt. I'd trade him if I could get anyone to trade a barrell of balls or eat a little salary. I'd probably release him if I couldn't trade him, since he isn't valuable enought to deal with the unhappiness. I'd much rather have Dewitt playing every day, even though I think he was a bit over his head last year. Maybe a make shift platoon between Dewitt and Repko with Blake switching positions to accomidate.

[silenus]

Get Pierre out of here. Tarde him or release him, as need be. We have the coverage, and he isn't going to be at all happy warming the bench. Trade hime for some minor league prospects and take a long-term view.

[storyteller]

I have to join another message board to argue with you. Sigh.

Just doing my part, to promote the wonder of DoMeBo.

Anyway, after the spanking I took last year arguing with you about the Rays, I should know better than to wade in here, but I'm nothing if not stubborn.

Anyways I don't think this is the Dodger's division to win, and I don't think it is just a two team division. The Padres will be more mediocre than awful. They aren't all that different than the pennant contender from two years ago. A lot of things went wrong last year, and not all of that will happen again. They got some star power, Adrian Gonzalez might be the most underrated hitter in the game, and the pitching staff is pretty good. I'll put them in the mid 70's

Agreed on Adrian Gonzalez, who is a good hitter (why does Jon Daniels still have a job? Gonzalez and Chris Young for Crap and Crapper should have done for him in Texas all by itself). But who else? Their next-best hitter will be Brian Giles, who is an estimated 8 million years old. After that it's Kouzmanoff and Headley, neither of whom would even be in the conversation for a good team (Headley could be good, I guess, but Kouzmanoff? I don't see the upside). And the next four guys will be, in some order, the Gerut/Hairston platoon, which is not awful but not good, and then no fewer than three automatic out types. Their staff is not pretty good. Their top starter is excellent, their number two is pretty good. Their third starter is below average; their fourth starter had an ERA over 6.00 last year. Their bullpen is three decent guys - not shutdown guys, but decent - and Health Bell. This is going to be a bad team, and I'll take the under if the over/under is 75 wins.

I agree on the Giants, except Sanchez is a stud, and will be one of the best 4/5 starters in the league. And really Zito isn't bad for a 5 starter. I'd rather have him then say Tim Redding. They will be better than last year, but they overachieved, so the wins will about the same

OK.

The Rockies on the other hand will be a contender. They had some growing pains, but their pitching came around towards the end of the season. They lost Holliday, but Stewart isn't a bad replacement. If Tulo is bounces back it would completely make up for the loss. I think this a "Ewing theory team" They will be better after they lose their best player.

I don't even know if Ian Stewart is going to play. You got your Seth Smith and your Ryan Spilborghs and your Brad Hawpe and your Carlos Gonzalez and your Matt Murton in the outfield, and Garrett Atkins is the third baseman. I simply can't imagine a circumstance where Tulowitzski bouncing back (which is likely but not certain) and Ian Stewart getting in there for, I dunno, Smith, is going to make up for Holliday's production. Helton is no longer a plus player at first, Barmes is terrible, and that outfield is not good. And their pitching is not going to be good enough. Cook and Jiminez are OK, I guess, but who's the rest of their rotation? Jason Marquis? I'll be shocked if they win 85 games.

No one can quite hit like Manny, although I wouldn't be stunned if Upton or Drew had a better offensive year than him.

But that's just speculation. Yes, I know, everybody loves Justin Upton, but the fact is that Manny Ramirez had a better season offensively last year, including his supposed "dogging it" in Boston, then Justin Upton has ever had in his professional career, including the minor leagues. To project Upton, who struck out 121 times in 356 at bats, is 20 years old, and hasn't proven that he's even an above-average player at this level, to be better than Ramirez, is guesswork. I could just as easily, and with the same amount of evidence, predict that Matt Kemp, whose minor league numbers are at least comparable to Upton's and whose major league numbers are certainly better, will be better than Manny.

The Dbacks have few guarantees, but they aren't really terrible anywhere, and they have a lot of breakout candidates. All they need is Upton to follow Griffey's career path (which he appears to be doing thus far), Drew to put together a full season like his 2nd half, Young to hit 280, Jackson to develop some power, or Tracy and Reynolds turn into consistent threats.

That's quite a huge leap. At 20 years old, his second year in the league, Ken Griffey, Jr, hit .300/.366/.481 on his way to an OPS+ of 135. Upton's rate stats look superficially similar (.250/.353/.463), but comparing his path so far to Griffey's only work's if you're making liberal use of the phrase "a poor man's." Chris Young's career batting average is .243 - sure, he could hit .280 this year. Clayton Kershaw could also pitch to an ERA under 3.00. I think they're about equally likely. Jackson has never shown serious power at any point in his career, so while it's possible that it could just materialize it's not likely. Chad Tracy is 29 years old, and his career his been remarkably consistent (with the exception of an outlying 2005). Mark Reynolds is not, right now, a particularly good ballplayer.

So basically, you list six things, of which five are very unlikely, and say that if two of these unlikely things happen, the D-backs lineup will be "good." Not great, but good.

If 2 or 3 of these happen the Dbacks will have a good lineup. If not the Dbacks lineup should at least be decent, which could be enough, since the pitching is fantastic and the division is weak.

You and I have a different definition of "fantastic." Two great starters, two innings-eaters, and a might-be add up to a good, not great, rotation. The bullpen, meanwhile, is OK. Other than Chad Qualls, only one single projected D-backs reliever had an ERA under 4.00 last year: Scott Schoenweis. Letting Juan Cruz go is going to hurt that bullpen.

Yes Billingsley is a huge downgrade on Webb. Webb has been the top two in CY Young voting for the last 3 years. He hasn't just been consistently great, he has been consistently healthy too. Billingsly never has had anywhere near that level of success over an extended period of time, and he is already hurting.

And yet you're happy to project Justin Upton, who has never had anywhere near any level of success at the major league level, to be superior to Manny Ramirez? If this were Mafia, I'd vote for you for inconsistency. Unlike Upton, Billingsley has performed at a high level in his entire major league career. He threw 200 innings last year. He broke his leg in a non-baseball fashion; I'm not sure I can qualify that as "already hurting" in a meaningful sense - it's not like he has a pitching-related shoulder injury that is likely to recur. Frankly, if you can argue that Upton could be close to Manny, I can argue that Billingsley could be close to Webb. The strikeout rate! Come on, man, the strikeout rate! If he cuts his walk rate by just a little bit, he'll be one of the best starters in baseball.

Kuroda is an innings eater roughly equivlant to Garland (who should improve in the NL). He might be a little better, but I think the league will catch up with him a bit this year.

OK.

Davis and Wolf aren't the same pitcher, one can stay healthy and one can't.

Other than last year, I assume you mean, when Wolf pitched 190 innings (fifty more than Davis)?

Max and Kershaw are similar, Scherzer has more major league success, while Kershaw has the higher upside.

Well, yeah, and this is why I don't understand your argument. Your argument hinges on the players with upside on the D-backs all fulfilling that promise, but doesn't acknowledge that there are players on the Dodgers - Billingsley, Kershaw, Kemp, Loney, Ethier - with just as much upside. Is there some reason to suspect that Scherzer, Upton, and Chris Young are significantly more likely to emerge as real stars than Kemp, Kershaw, or Loney?

That leaves us with Haren, one of the top ten starters in the majors, vs Schmidt who hasn't thrown a quality start since 2006. I see the Dbacks as having the an elite staff, duel aces, a high upside 3rd starter, and two slightly below league average pitchers in the back. For the Dodger, I wouldn't pencil anyone for more than 175 innings other than maybe Kuroda.

Really? OK, but that's just complete speculation. Again, Billingsley and Wolf both pitched 190+ innings last year.

Most of this is fair. I think again you are discounting injury risk though. The Dbacks are much better at short, because Furcal has shown no ability to stay healthy lately.

And by "lately" you mean "in 2008," right? Because Furcal has reached 550 at bats in every single season of his entire career other than 2001 and 2008. "was injured in 2008" does not mean "has no ability to stay healthy." And if 2008 is the determining factor, why are you describing Randy Wolf as injured when he was healthy as a bear in '08?

The Dbacks have a very good catching platoon, but Martin is better.

Way better.

I think Reynolds is equivilant to Blake, and Upton will likely be better than Ethier.

Likely? I don't think so.

The Dodgers have a lot of solid offensive players, but none of them are great players. Manny has had a half a great season in the last 2 seasons, and his defense/base running are big liabilities. Who is the best all around offensive player on the Dodgers? Martin? To me the pitching gap is bigger than the hitting one.

I say the opposite, and, as I said, by a wide margin. The Dodgers are going to be better on offense than the D-backs to a degree far greater than the D-backs will be better on the mound. I mean, adding everything together, the Dodgers won 84 games last year, "should have" won 87, and added a half season of Manny Ramirez and Rafael Furcal, while replacing Derek Lowe with Randy Wolf. I think there's no way that team performs worse this year, and they were a bit unlucky last year. The D-backs won 82 last season, exactly their Pythag. projection, and they lost a good relief pitcher. I just don't see there being six wins of improvement in the kids.

But I'll do win predictions, too, just for kicks:

Dodgers 88
D-Backs 83
Rockies 81
Giants 74
Padres 70

[storyteller]

By the way, I do agree with you about Stephen Drew, hereafter known as "The Franchise" is fantasy baseball terms.

[silenus]

And the Yankess lose A-Rod until May.

Sorry, Jim. Harsh blow to start the season with.

[hawkeyeop]

Just doing my part, to promote the wonder of DoMeBo.

If you argue I will come :mrgreen:

Anyway, after the spanking I took last year arguing with you about the Rays, I should know better than to wade in here, but I'm nothing if not stubborn.

Beats the current argument on the Dope on Varitek's magical powers.

Agreed on Adrian Gonzalez, who is a good hitter (why does Jon Daniels still have a job? Gonzalez and Chris Young for Crap and Crapper should have done for him in Texas all by itself). But who else? Their next-best hitter will be Brian Giles, who is an estimated 8 million years old. After that it's Kouzmanoff and Headley, neither of whom would even be in the conversation for a good team (Headley could be good, I guess, but Kouzmanoff? I don't see the upside). And the next four guys will be, in some order, the Gerut/Hairston platoon, which is not awful but not good, and then no fewer than three automatic out types. Their staff is not pretty good. Their top starter is excellent, their number two is pretty good. Their third starter is below average; their fourth starter had an ERA over 6.00 last year. Their bullpen is three decent guys - not shutdown guys, but decent - and Health Bell. This is going to be a bad team, and I'll take the under if the over/under is 75 wins.

If you want to call them a 70 win team instead of a 75 win that is fine. I just don't think they are the worst team in baseball that people seem to be projecting them to be.

I don't even know if Ian Stewart is going to play. You got your Seth Smith and your Ryan Spilborghs and your Brad Hawpe and your Carlos Gonzalez and your Matt Murton in the outfield, and Garrett Atkins is the third baseman. I simply can't imagine a circumstance where Tulowitzski bouncing back (which is likely but not certain) and Ian Stewart getting in there for, I dunno, Smith, is going to make up for Holliday's production. Helton is no longer a plus player at first, Barmes is terrible, and that outfield is not good. And their pitching is not going to be good enough. Cook and Jiminez are OK, I guess, but who's the rest of their rotation? Jason Marquis? I'll be shocked if they win 85 games.

Stewart will play left I think. Hawpe, Gonzalez, and Stewart will be a decent outfield and they are potentially very good at the tough to fill positions of catcher and short. The corners will be okay, so really the only major problem is 2nd. I don't think 81 and 85 is an incredible difference between us though. I just like them, particularly the starting pitching, a bit more.

But that's just speculation. Yes, I know, everybody loves Justin Upton, but the fact is that Manny Ramirez had a better season offensively last year, including his supposed "dogging it" in Boston, then Justin Upton has ever had in his professional career, including the minor leagues. To project Upton, who struck out 121 times in 356 at bats, is 20 years old, and hasn't proven that he's even an above-average player at this level, to be better than Ramirez, is guesswork. I could just as easily, and with the same amount of evidence, predict that Matt Kemp, whose minor league numbers are at least comparable to Upton's and whose major league numbers are certainly better, will be better than Manny.

Remember last year when you said the Rays hadn't proved anything, and I argued their talent was historic. Upton is a historic talent. Scouts say that he, along with Arod and Griffey, are the top high school players in the last 25 years. Of course it is speculation that Upton takes a major step forward this season, any prediction is, but i feel comfortable with that bet. Putting up league avg production as a 20 year old is a great indicator of stardom. The risk is not that he doesn't become great , but rather it takes a couple of years. Kemp, and I love Kemp, just isn't on that level. His minor league numbers aren't comparable because he was older then than Upton is now.

As for Ramirez the number that jumps out is 37. There just aren't that many great hitter at age 37/38. And if Manny takes a step back offensively the other stuff becomes a greater detriment. We can't just say that a guy is great, because he was great last year, or vica versa. The 20 year old will assurdedly get better and the 37 year old will likely get worse. When the ages are that extreme, climbs and falls will often be swift and extreme.

That's quite a huge leap. At 20 years old, his second year in the league, Ken Griffey, Jr, hit .300/.366/.481 on his way to an OPS+ of 135. Upton's rate stats look superficially similar (.250/.353/.463), but comparing his path so far to Griffey's only work's if you're making liberal use of the phrase "a poor man's." Chris Young's career batting average is .243 - sure, he could hit .280 this year. Clayton Kershaw could also pitch to an ERA under 3.00. I think they're about equally likely. Jackson has never shown serious power at any point in his career, so while it's possible that it could just materialize it's not likely. Chad Tracy is 29 years old, and his career his been remarkably consistent (with the exception of an outlying 2005). Mark Reynolds is not, right now, a particularly good ballplayer.

Upton avg was lower, but the power and walk rates were better. Those numbers look pretty similar to me. There is more to than numbers. Scouts say he is every bit of prospect that Griffey was too. As for Young, wait I said 280? Let's make that 265. He still would be a very good player with an avg like that, and isn't a bad player now. He probably shouldn't lead off though. Jackson, Tracy, and Reynolds I think can be a bit better, but you are right they aren't going to be stars.

You and I have a different definition of "fantastic." Two great starters, two innings-eaters, and a might-be add up to a good, not great, rotation. The bullpen, meanwhile, is OK. Other than Chad Qualls, only one single projected D-backs reliever had an ERA under 4.00 last year: Scott Schoenweis. Letting Juan Cruz go is going to hurt that bullpen.

Who has a better staff in the NL? The Giants maybe, but Linecum is a far greater risk than Webb/Haren. The Cubs if you think Zambrano will bounce back, Harden will stay healthy, and Dempster's 2008 was real, which I don't. So how bout I just call it the top 1 or 2 staffs outside of the AL east.

Yes Billingsley is a huge downgrade on Webb. Webb has been the top two in CY Young voting for the last 3 years. He hasn't just been consistently great, he has been consistently healthy too. Billingsly never has had anywhere near that level of success over an extended period of time, and he is already hurting.

And yet you're happy to project Justin Upton, who has never had anywhere near any level of success at the major league level, to be superior to Manny Ramirez?

I didn't say he would be better, I said I wouldn't be shocked if he was.

Billingsley has performed at a high level in his entire major league career. He threw 200 innings last year. He broke his leg in a non-baseball fashion; I'm not sure I can qualify that as "already hurting" in a meaningful sense - it's not like he has a pitching-related shoulder injury that is likely to recur. Frankly, if you can argue that Upton could be close to Manny, I can argue that Billingsley could be close to Webb. The strikeout rate! Come on, man, the strikeout rate! If he cuts his walk rate by just a little bit, he'll be one of the best starters in baseball.

Young hitters are much safer bets than young pitchers. Billingsley has had little injuried here and there and the hip thing, while not baseball related, can still cause baseball injuries. It isn't rare for an injury to cause a player to throw differently, and resulting in cascade injuries. Billingsley can be great, perhaps as good as Webb, but he could also blow out his arm. Ditto Kershaw who has even greater upside.

Other than last year, I assume you mean, when Wolf pitched 190 innings (fifty more than Davis)?

Other than last year. Every year from 2004-2007 Davis has had more than 30 starts, and Wolf has had less than 25. So yeah I think one has a better shot at staying healthy than the other, and it isn't Wolf.

Well, yeah, and this is why I don't understand your argument. Your argument hinges on the players with upside on the D-backs all fulfilling that promise, but doesn't acknowledge that there are players on the Dodgers - Billingsley, Kershaw, Kemp, Loney, Ethier - with just as much upside. Is there some reason to suspect that Scherzer, Upton, and Chris Young are significantly more likely to emerge as real stars than Kemp, Kershaw, or Loney?

I actually like Kershaw more than Scherzer. Scherezer is already hurting in a worse place than Billingsley. There are some differences though. Not all young players are equal, they have different risks, timetables and upsides. Ethier for example I don't believe has much of an upside at all. I think he is pretty much what he is. Kemp and Loney could get a bit better, but they are already pretty good. I don't think it will make much of a difference. Neither of them has the power to hit more than 25 or so hr a year. Billingsley and Kershaw have ace potential, but young pitchers break. And the Dodgers have virtuously nothing in terms of depth. Dbacks hitters are safer bets and can make bigger jumps.

Really? OK, but that's just complete speculation. Again, Billingsley and Wolf both pitched 190+ innings last year.

Again young pitchers who have thrown a lot of innings break. Maybe Billingsley is the exception, but I think he will miss some time with something or other. And Wolf has had one healthy year in 5.

And by "lately" you mean "in 2008," right? Because Furcal has reached 550 at bats in every single season of his entire career other than 2001 and 2008. "was injured in 2008" does not mean "has no ability to stay healthy." And if 2008 is the determining factor, why are you describing Randy Wolf as injured when he was healthy as a bear in '08?

Not all injuries are the same. Orlando Hudson has been hurt a lot too, but those were flukey injuries. I'm not too concerned about his health. Furcal on the hand has a wrist, a brutal injury for a baseball player, which keeps getting hurt and doesn't seem to ever heal properly. I'd be much more worried that his wrist will still be hurting or will be reinjured. The fact that Wolf survived last season, doesn't make him a great bet to do it again. Want to bet on Rich Harden being healthy too?

Likely? I don't think so.

I do. Ethier is a slightly above avg player, Upton is a star. Really look at the names of players who have done okay in the majors at 20 sometime.

I say the opposite, and, as I said, by a wide margin. The Dodgers are going to be better on offense than the D-backs to a degree far greater than the D-backs will be better on the mound. I mean, adding everything together, the Dodgers won 84 games last year, "should have" won 87, and added a half season of Manny Ramirez and Rafael Furcal, while replacing Derek Lowe with Randy Wolf. I think there's no way that team performs worse this year, and they were a bit unlucky last year. The D-backs won 82 last season, exactly their Pythag. projection, and they lost a good relief pitcher. I just don't see there being six wins of improvement in the kids.

I think the Dbacks will get 6 games better from Upton/Drew/young, and everything else will basically hold steady. And I think the Dodgers starting pitching will be 5+ games worse. They will miss Lowe's innings as much as his ability.

But I'll do win predictions, too, just for kicks:

Dodgers 88
D-Backs 83
Rockies 81
Giants 74
Padres 70

I was going to start a predictions thread, I just don't know what board to put it on.

[hawkeyeop]

By the way, I do agree with you about Stephen Drew, hereafter known as "The Franchise" is fantasy baseball terms.

Keeping him long term?

[What Exit?]

And the Yankess lose A-Rod until May.

Sorry, Jim. Harsh blow to start the season with.

Well that is one that we just aren't prepared for. The rest of the AL East will be very happy.

Angel Berroa has been getting some work at third, this might be why. The Yanks have 30+ year old AAAA player Justin Leone in camp.

I actually think this is the biggest hit we could take. Even Teixeira has a solid backup in Swisher and a prospect behind him.

[Asimovian]

Guess there wasn't much need to speculate about what the Dodgers would do with Pierre:

Pierre Pursuing Trade Options

[silenus]

Pierre is being a real pro about everything. I hope he hooks up with a good club and gets the playing time he wants. It would be nice if we got a couple of middle relievers out of the deal.

[storyteller]

By the way, I do agree with you about Stephen Drew, hereafter known as "The Franchise" is fantasy baseball terms.

Keeping him long term?

Him and Youk, yeah.

[What Exit?]

The update on A-Rod is interesting. He may or may not play in stead of the surgery. If he rests and then it gets worse, they will lose him for most of the season instead of one to two months.

One fall back I forgot about as I would not like to see it is to move Teixeira to third and Swisher to first. The local Talk Radio programs are discussing this.

[hawkeyeop]

The update on A-Rod is interesting. He may or may not play in stead of the surgery. If he rests and then it gets worse, they will lose him for most of the season instead of one to two months.

From what I've seen one or two months is on the low side. if he has surgery today he would be out half of the season. If rehab fails, it is 3 or 4 months from whatever that point is.

One fall back I forgot about as I would not like to see it is to move Teixeira to third and Swisher to first. The local Talk Radio programs are discussing this.

There is a reason they don't let talk show participants run teams. I have to say though, for a team with a 200 million dollar payroll, the Yanks have some lousy depth.

[What Exit?]

The update on A-Rod is interesting. He may or may not play in stead of the surgery. If he rests and then it gets worse, they will lose him for most of the season instead of one to two months.

From what I've seen one or two months is on the low side. if he has surgery today he would be out half of the season. If rehab fails, it is 3 or 4 months from whatever that point is.

One fall back I forgot about as I would not like to see it is to move Teixeira to third and Swisher to first. The local Talk Radio programs are discussing this.

There is a reason they don't let talk show participants run teams. I have to say though, for a team with a 200 million dollar payroll, the Yanks have some lousy depth.

Actually 3B is the biggest hole followed by SS. They have plenty of depth in the OF and at 1st and even catcher. The pitching staff has some good depth for starters and relievers. The drop-off in offense from Posada is big but two of the back ups are better defensively.

You are correct about talk show participants.

My understanding was that if he had surgery today, he would be back at the end of May. Maybe I have that wrong.

[hawkeyeop]

Actually 3B is the biggest hole followed by SS. They have plenty of depth in the OF and at 1st and even catcher. The pitching staff has some good depth for starters and relievers. The drop-off in offense from Posada is big but two of the back ups are better defensively.

The Yankees have four positions in which they would be in significant trouble if a player went down. 2nd, SS, 3rd, and yes catcher. The fact that this team spent two hundred million dollars on a team, and can't even find a decent utility infielder to me is inexcusable. Even someone like Alex Cora or Mark Loretta would be a market improvement over what they have now. Old players at key defensive position break down, you just can't expect Jeter and Posada to stay off the DL all year. '

To me catcher represents even worse decision making. Molina is okay as a catch and throw guy playing every fifth day. Not good, but he'll do. He just can't hit. No amount of wild pitches saved or base runners throws out, makes up for the fact that he is a complete dud at the plate. You just can't have complete black holes in your lineup, and expect to beat Tampa and Boston. Knowing that Posada is 37 and coming off major shoulder surgery, you are almost are guaranteed your backup will play a significant amount of games. You need to make sure he is capable of doing so.

I don't think Tampa wins this division because they better first line talent. I think they win because they have vastly superior plan B's.

My understanding was that if he had surgery today, he would be back at the end of May. Maybe I have that wrong.

That was the original report, but the source from that was his brother. Not really a medical expert there. Since then, from better sources, I've heard it would be more like 3-4 months.

[Julie]

Cleveland is probably in a good place this spring. It looks like Victor Martinez is going to make a nice comeback, though Hafner is walking around with a giant glowing question mark over his meaty noggin.

I think Sizemore will continue to shine. It'd be great to get a full season of Shin-Soo Choo, but his elbow is flaring again. Left field is a wasteland.

The offense should be better than it started last year. Unbelievably, the Indians have tried Garko out in the outfield, which is nuts since I could outrun the guy, but his tether is probably really short at first since Martinez can play first and let Shoppach stay behind the plate.

I hope Cliff Lee keeps on keeping on, but what are the chances? Fausto had a rough 2008, with injury issues. Jake Westbrook is out until midseason with Tommy John. Pavano will probably get hurt any second. The rotation could be great or disastrous.

As for the bullpen, I've learned never to say anything about a bullpen. It just makes everyone look stupid.

[Asimovian]

For once, I am really pleased with the Dodgers' decision to let someone go at the right time. Reading today about Eric Gagne's "setback" that will probably keep him out of a job this year, following the last two or three years of his struggling, makes me appreciate that they got something right.

Usually, I feel like I watch people play like superstars on other teams while I remark to my wife, "Yeah, that guy used to be a Dodger."

[Julie]

Usually, I feel like I watch people play like superstars on other teams while I remark to my wife, "Yeah, that guy used to be a Dodger."

Last year I got to watch Sabathia and Manny tear up the NL. Yeah, they used to be Indians. GAH!

[What Exit?]

I have to say, I am glad A-Rod opted for surgery. I think this is the best course.

If the pitching does its job, I think the Yanks will be find until he returns. Of course now the Yanks have a greater need for a healthy Posada. Still the biggest question mark.

[What Exit?]

Joba had a good outing and Hughes has been looking good. This should quell some of the Sports talk radio that there is something wrong with Joba.

Phil Coke just showed off his pick-off move.

[silenus]

Outfielders we got. Lordy, do we have outfielders. Pitching, Joe! We has to have pitching!

Juan Pierre, Tony Abreau, Delwyn Young and a bag of bats for a starter. Such a deal!

[Asimovian]

Juan Pierre, Tony Abreau, Delwyn Young and a bag of bats for a starter. Such a deal!

I assume you heard what happened recently to the last guy that got traded for a bag of bats...

[What Exit?]

Juan Pierre, Tony Abreau, Delwyn Young and a bag of bats for a starter. Such a deal!

I assume you heard what happened recently to the last guy that got traded for a bag of bats...

I did, that is pretty sad.

For those that don't know yet. John Odom who was traded for 10 maple bats either died of an accidental overdose or as has been reported some places, committed suicide by pills.

[What Exit?]

Yanks got their best news of the Spring yesterday. Mariano Rivera pitched an 11 pitch 1-2-3 inning in relief and looked great and sharp.

It was a good game across the board. Teixiera played the best defense for the Yanks since Tino and maybe better. Everyone hit, especially Matsui. CC looked very sharp.

[What Exit?]

Where's the baseball fans?

[storyteller]

Cringing in terror over further injury fallout from the WBC, I'd imagine.

Maybe that's just me.

[What Exit?]

Cringing in terror over further injury fallout from the WBC, I'd imagine.

Maybe that's just me.

No, not just you, I really dislike this WBC setup. But I am following Spring Training and taking the good with the bad. I am happy to see the guys competing for bench roles get a lot more playing time against the veterans.

I do hope they find a different solution to the WBC, this spring training disturbance does not appear to be the way to do it. I don't think November works well either but it would be better. Maybe the WBC teams need to start Spring Training in January to get ready for a February tournament and minimize the Spring Training impact.

BTW: Looking at the Yankees Spring Training ERAs has been making be very happy and very hopeful. Yesterday's boxscore was very good.

[silenus]

Dodgers Spring Training is the same as always: terrible. All we are doing is highlighting our Total Lack of Pitching.

<sigh>

Oh, well. We'll just wait until April 15th, when the Nationals and the Mariners have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, and score some pitchers then.

[What Exit?]

Dodgers Spring Training is the same as always: terrible. All we are doing is highlighting our Total Lack of Pitching.

<sigh>

Oh, well. We'll just wait until April 15th, when the Nationals and the Mariners have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, and score some pitchers then.

In all seriousness, do you think the Dodgers would be interested in Kei Igawa. The Lefty Japanese Pitcher that has not been able to stick in the majors with the Yanks. He is having an awesome spring when the Yanks have plenty of pitching. His salary is only $4m per year for this year and next.

[silenus]

Probably. We like Japanese pitchers out here. I don't know what kind of list Coletti has, but our starting rotation is sucky beyond belief. I know they want to get innings out of Wolf, but that just isn't going to happen. He's going to break again before Summer, I know it. Schmidt isn't any better. Kershaw is still too young to be really effective. So we are going to be going to the bullpen early all season long. This bodes badly for the Dodgers. We need to pick up at least one more starter who can eat up innings, and another solid middle reliever.

[What Exit?]

Probably. We like Japanese pitchers out here. I don't know what kind of list Coletti has, but our starting rotation is sucky beyond belief. I know they want to get innings out of Wolf, but that just isn't going to happen. He's going to break again before Summer, I know it. Schmidt isn't any better. Kershaw is still too young to be really effective. So we are going to be going to the bullpen early all season long. This bodes badly for the Dodgers. We need to pick up at least one more starter who can eat up innings, and another solid middle reliever.

Hopefully Coletti and Cashman are already talking as it looks like despite a great spring, Igawa is headed back to AAA. All the Yanks need back is prospects so it will probably be easy to make the trade happen. It is not as if Igawa is worth a top 10 prospect and it is partially a salary dump.

[Laughing Lagomorph]

I do hope they find a different solution to the WBC, this spring training disturbance does not appear to be the way to do it. I don't think November works well either but it would be better. Maybe the WBC teams need to start Spring Training in January to get ready for a February tournament and minimize the Spring Training impact.

...

I don't like the way Spring Training constraints are interfering with my enjoyment of the WBC!

You need to embrace the new What Exit?! Spring Training is so...Ed Zotti. The WBC is the DoMeBo of baseball.

[What Exit?]

[quote=Laughing Lagomorph]

I do hope they find a different solution to the WBC, this spring training disturbance does not appear to be the way to do it. I don't think November works well either but it would be better. Maybe the WBC teams need to start Spring Training in January to get ready for a February tournament and minimize the Spring Training impact.

...

I don't like the way Spring Training constraints are interfering with my enjoyment of the WBC!

You need to embrace the new What Exit?! Spring Training is so...Ed Zotti. The WBC is the DoMeBo of baseball.[/quote:iujg1anv]
Until the star player on your team goes down. I love the idea of after the post season. That way there is far more recovery time to return from an injury and it will be interesting to see how much a free agent loves their country.

[Laughing Lagomorph]

[quote=What Exit?][quote="Laughing Lagomorph":hnp98ywh]

I do hope they find a different solution to the WBC, this spring training disturbance does not appear to be the way to do it. I don't think November works well either but it would be better. Maybe the WBC teams need to start Spring Training in January to get ready for a February tournament and minimize the Spring Training impact.

...

I don't like the way Spring Training constraints are interfering with my enjoyment of the WBC!

You need to embrace the new What Exit?! Spring Training is so...Ed Zotti. The WBC is the DoMeBo of baseball.[/quote:hnp98ywh]
Until the star player on your team goes down. I love the idea of after the post season. That way there is far more recovery time to return from an injury and it will be interesting to see how much a free agent loves their country.[/quote:hnp98ywh]

Of course, guys never get hurt in spring training!

[What Exit?]

Of course, guys never get hurt in spring training!

Of course they do, but the guys take it easier and more measured in Spring Training. They are playing much harder in the WBC.