The Race to the White House , 2016

[Paul in Qatar]

This is silly. Real non-primary votes will not be cast for 15 months. How can anyone elect someone who is wiling to spend two years running for office?

All the being said, what do you think at this point?

------GOP----
I can't vote for Bush. I can't get over the Terry Shivo case.
I will vote for Trump in the Pennsylvania closed primary, just to make trouble. I can't vote for him in the general election.
I can't vote for Walker because of his anti-union stance.
I can't vote for Cruz because he is from Texas.
I can't vote for O'Malley because he is much too pro-police and ruined Baltimore.
I can't vote for Huckabee. I like a religious candidate, but he is right-wing Christian and I am left-wing Christian.
I can't vote for Santorum. Although he is the best speaker of the bunch, he says the worst things.
I can't vote for Christie. I used to like him, and I would have voted for him if the election was held in 2014, but his gruff wears on you after a while.
I can't vote for Perry. He is from Texas.
I won't vote for Jindal. I don't respect a man so obviously running for Veep.
I won't vote for Ru Paul. But is nice he is back in men's clothes.

----Democrats----
I can't vote for Hilary, she is just seems to be too frail. She does not look healthy. I would not want to bet she makes it to election day. Besides we have had enough Clinton.
I could vote for Biden, although he is too pro-police for my taste.
I could vote for Sanders.

[Rube E. Tewesday]

That Biden's name is seriously being mentioned after all these years says something, but I'm not sure what.

I see a dark horse emerging for the Democrats as things shake out.

[What Exit?]

I will vote for Sanders in the primary and he will lose to Clinton anyway. So it goes.

[Jizzelbin]

Vote trump. stockpile guns. lick a turd fresh fom the toilet. Drive hammered, Eat arbys. Put a GI Joe up your ass. Arby's: Who gives a shit?

In my state, primary elections are handled by default, and a a registered "N/Affil" it doesn't matter what I do.

As an Austrian Economist, soi-disant, for most of my adult life, I'm just going to put in the mail-in ballot for whoever ends up on the Progressive (!) ticket. It doesn't matter -- it makes about as much sense as throwing a so-called leftist ballot in in NYC. It's already a done deal.

[Jizzelbin]

I mean, unless some of you political geniuses think somehow Oregon will turn Red, or, for that matter, NYC is going to turn all dixie. Not going to happen. I intend to sit back, kick my shoes off, and look at the dregs trying to make a quick buck.

[CatInASuit]

So, of the candidates being put forward - which of them do think would be better than the incumbent?

[Elendil's Heir]

Welcome back, Paul!

I don't trust Hillary. She botched healthcare reform in the Nineties, lied for years about arriving under enemy fire during a visit to Bosnia, destroyed thousands of official emails and - other than Benghazi - has little to show for her service as Secretary of State. She did not come off well at all in the excellent behind-the-scenes '08 campaign book Game Change. Her husband would be a huge and unmanageable distraction if she were elected President.

My wife's from Vermont and I've followed Sanders's career for quite awhile. He has long insisted he's not a Democrat. He's run against and beaten Vermont Democratic candidates. And how he wants to be the party's presidential nominee? Feh.

I support Martin O'Malley, the former Governor of Maryland. Smart, capable, articulate, with a proven record of achievement. He hasn't gotten much attention so far but I expect he'll do better once he starts appearing in debates with Hillary 'n' Bernie.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_O%27Malley
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/mag...3.php?page=all
http://www.salon.com/2015/02/03/the_...for_president/

[Paul in Qatar]

O'Malley was one of the reasons Baltimore exploded. He supported (may still support) a zero-tolerance police policy that seems little more than urban warfare. Of course, as I learn more about him, I may change my mind.

[Elendil's Heir]

I disagree. Why, if O'Malley was that bad, was he reelected as mayor by his majority-black constituents, and then get their overwhelming support both times he ran for governor? Time magazine named him one of the country's five best mayors. Crime definitely dropped while he was mayor - although by how much, and for what reasons, is still a matter of controversy.

[Paul in Qatar]

Well, like I said, I am willing to be educated.

All this stuff with Trump. You could write quite the It Can't Happen Here novel based on what-if-he-won. At what point do we realize he is not funny but scary and somehow sad?

[Elendil's Heir]

It's all about the ego for The Donald. He digs the spotlight, and then some.

Here's a Chicago Tribune column on O'Malley's retail politics in Iowa.

Martin O'Malley: Obscure but not implausible
By Steve Chapman
The Chicago Tribune, July 22, 2015

CEDAR RAPIDS, IOWA - In a party that produced such talented speakers as Mario Cuomo, Ted Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, this year's presidential race looks like a slog through an oratorical desert. Yet last week, the Iowa Democratic Party hosted a dinner so masochists could hear five White House aspirants deliver speeches.

Former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee and former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb read their remarks like dutiful students. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders brought to mind a punk band that knows only three chords and plays them all the same way: loud. Hillary Clinton uttered every sentence as though she were addressing third-graders. There was one respite, from Martin O'Malley. The former governor of Maryland apparently heard somewhere that fluent public speaking is a useful skill in politics.

If you couldn't pick him out of a lineup, don't feel bad. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll gives him 2 percent of Democratic voters. He was lampooned in an April Twitter post with a photo of the gyrocopter that landed on the White House lawn and the caption: "MARTIN O'MALLEY WILL NOT BE IGNORED."

Clinton may have had the most supporters in the room, and Sanders' populist fury stirred the most anticipation. But if there had been impartial judges giving scores, O'Malley would have been the clear winner — and a sound meter probably would have confirmed it. His lines about redeeming the American Dream and promoting a stronger middle class are standard fare. His selling point was: "I am the only candidate for president with 15 years of executive experience." He stands out, he said, for turning "progressive values into action."

This was where his earnest speech became impassioned, his voice rising over building cheers: "In Baltimore, we took action to save lives by reducing record-high violence to record lows. We increased drug treatment to free thousands of our courageous neighbors from the scourge of drug addiction. ... Driver's licenses for new American immigrants, marriage equality and a ban on assault weapons: and we didn't just talk about it, we actually got it done!" On his mayoral record, O'Malley can point to documented changes that, in the post-Ferguson, Mo., era, seem incompatible. Overall crime fell more in Baltimore than in any other big city. At the same time, shootings by police dropped sharply.

But he is not above massaging the truth, as his comment on international trade revealed: "I am fundamentally opposed — as an American — to secret trade deals that our Congress is forced to vote on before we're even allowed to read them." In fact, the texts of the trade deals now being negotiated will be public months before Congress has to vote on them.

Stressing his executive record highlights a difference with his rivals. For all her years in public life, Clinton has trouble with the question: What have you actually accomplished? Sanders is the quintessential maverick, better at indicting the system than transforming it. O'Malley, 52, has other things going for him. With his athletic frame and thick gray hair, he looks like he walked out of a Cialis commercial. In 2013, The Washington Monthly called him "the best manager in government today."

And he seems to enjoy the part of the campaign that involves chatting and posing for selfies with voters. At the nearby White Star Ale House, before the dinner, I arrived 10 minutes early for his "meet-and-greet," only to find O'Malley already working a crowd whose numbers would have alarmed the fire marshal. He was still at it when I left an hour later.

Does any of this matter in a race against two far more famous candidates? Maybe not. He lacks Clinton's money and incomparable name recognition, and he lacks Sanders' visceral appeal to the Occupy Wall Street crowd. His narrow path to victory lies in convincing Democrats he's a fresh alternative to the recycled Clinton, but unlike Sanders can be elected.

If nominated, O'Malley would offer plenty of targets for Republicans, who would portray him as a coal-hating, gun-grabbing abortion rights zealot who has embraced unauthorized immigrants and raised taxes over and over. Rebutting that portrayal is a problem he would love to have. If old-fashioned retail campaigning still works in Iowa — and Rick Santorum's Republican victory four years ago suggests it does — his candidacy is more plausible than may be apparent. It's safe to bet that by February, even without a gyrocopter, Martin O'Malley will not be ignored.

The Chicago Tribune Copyright © 2015

[What Exit?]

If Bloomberg runs I will vote and campaign for him.
Useful links to evaluate candidates:
http://www.ontheissues.org/Martin_O%60Malley.htm I could vote for him.
http://www.ontheissues.org/Bernie_Sanders.htm I like him, he is a populist and pretty damn green. He has the crazy coot vibe that I feel like we need now.

[Jizzelbin]

Well, so what else is new? Anybody changed their minds?

All of the US Republicans are shit. Ben Carson is a clown. Trump is a ladyboy.

Hillary 2016.

That's my final answer. Leave politics to the politicians. She's a professional, so let her do the thing in the night. Some idiot "brain" surgeon or demented realtor wouldn't know how to take a dump without asking permission.

[Elendil's Heir]

Sorry, can't agree. In addition to my criticism above, Hillary has been hated by the GOP for a generation and will be able to accomplish little with Congress. They hate her even worse than they hate Obama, which is saying something. I like a President who can get stuff done, which is why I back O'Malley.

[Jizzelbin]

I don't dispute your assessment of Hillary's perception problem. And, also, arguably, her performance problem.

I guess O'Malley has the problem that he's a nobody from nowhere.

And that's why these elections might be kingmakers.

I wouldn't bet on it, though.

[What Exit?]

Good list, I'll remove those already gone.

------GOP----
I can't vote for Bush. No more Bushes, also he's a dud and not enough smarter than his idiot brother.
I cringe at Trump as he is Trump and everything from his mouth is pretty cringe-worthy.
As to Carson, see Trump and double it.
I could vote for Rubio and I probably would if it wasn't for the rest of his party.
Cruz is a tea party darling, thus he is disqualified.
Fiorina, never elected and a failed CEO that trashed HP. Also I can't stand her. Other than that no problem.
Christie, I like some things about him but he has thugs in his inner circle and honestly I don't think he was ever running for POTUS, just VP anyway.
Kasich, I like some things about hime, but he honestly has no serious chance. By party standards, along with Christie he is sane, that's a big help.
Huckabee, Paul, Graham, Pataki & Santorum: Why are they in the race? They are all deluded.

----Democrats----
I don't want to vote for Clinton, but probably will as the Republican party must have a counter weight with all the tea party and right-winged religious influence. I also dislike the family legacy thing. So I will hold my nose and vote for her after she wins the Democratic Nomination.
I could vote for Sanders, and will in the primary. I know he won't accomplish much, but the country has swung too far to the right and a progressive socialist like him will at least pull us back towards the middle.
O'Malley, I like some things about him, especially his environmental platform but like Christie I really believe he has been running for VP.

[Elendil's Heir]

Can't disagree with you on any of the Republicans, What Exit?, and I'd also agree that Rubio and Kasich are probably the best of a bad GOP bunch. As I disagree with them both on 90%+ of the issues, though, and as one of his constituents I have a generally low opinion of Kasich, neither of them will have my vote next year. Truly surprising to me how poorly Jeb! has done.

I suspect Hillary will end up with Dem nomination, and if so I will most likely join you in holding my nose, too, and voting for her.

Bernie, not a chance, for the reasons stated above. A self-described democratic socialist who honeymooned in Soviet-era Moscow would be squashed like a bug next November by just about any GOP candidate.

I do think O'Malley is running full-bore for President, but also knows he probably won't get it this time. He wanted to be the un-Hillary, but Bernie surprised everyone by seizing that role himself. I'd guess it's very unlikely Hillary names O'Malley her VP, as Maryland is a small state and already strongly Democratic in the Electoral College. More likely she picks a younger Latino guy like one of the Castros from Texas - esp. if, as I predict, Rubio ends up the GOP nominee.

[CatInASuit]

View from across the pond. Just go and Vote Hillary already, will you. Try and stay stable and at least show some interest in world affairs. kthxbye.

[What Exit?]

View from across the pond. Just go and Vote Hillary already, will you. Try and stay stable and at least show some interest in world affairs. kthxbye.

That seems like the most likely outcome but strange things do happen in elections. Obama actually being a fairly good example and Bill Clinton & Jimmy Carter before that. In fact it seems to be a recent trend for the Democrats.

[CatInASuit]

So, I have to ask, what are you going to do about Donald Trump and how did he wind up on the shortlist for Republican nominees?

"Ban all Muslims" - something that goes against the founding principles of your entire ethos. And he's the leading contender for the GOP ???

Currently there is a large campaign going on to ban him from Britain for hate speech and he's even less popular in the rest of the world, but US polls seem to like him. Oh dear, oh dear.

[What Exit?]

Trump is a national embarrassment without question, but keep in mind that while he currently the front runner, he can't top 30% and eventually some candidate will consolidate support and be in the 40% zone. I'm hoping it is a Christie or Rubio and fearful it will be Cruz.

I will be voting Dem but I hope the Republican Candidate is at least an acceptably reasonable one. I doubt Christie will rise to any legit number so the odds are strong it will be Cruz or Rubio. All 3 have serious issues but Cruz has the most serious one to me.

[CatInASuit]

Someone did mention to me that, if they didn't know any better, it looks like Trump is actually doing everything he can to not be elected when he stayed out as the front runner.

And that by making more and more outlandish statements, he's hoping he wont have to run. Any thoughts?

[What Exit?]

Someone did mention to me that, if they didn't know any better, it looks like Trump is actually doing everything he can to not be elected when he stayed out as the front runner.

And that by making more and more outlandish statements, he's hoping he wont have to run. Any thoughts?

Possible, I originally thought he was just running to keep his name out there in a big way and no expectations of doing well.

[Jizzelbin]

Nu?

I like Trump. Wouldn't that be something?

I don't want to get too political, but we had the retard Bush kid -- that's not a political jab, that's the way everyone saw it in the world at the time...

It's not unbelievable that some other moron would do something political.

It's the same, but more hilarious.

So, what's the straight dope?

[Elendil's Heir]

The Ohio Democratic primary is Tuesday and I will, without enthusiasm, be voting for Hillary.

Trump will probably beat Kasich in his own state that day. Amazing to me how well Trump, given all his baggage, continues to do.

[What Exit?]

Without enthusiasm, what a rallying cry.

when New Jersey finally gets to vote it will be far too late to matter and I will still cast a vote for Sanders and then in November I will "without enthusiasm" vote for HRC over Trump.

[Jizzelbin]

I will "without enthusiasm" vote for HRC over Trump.

That doesn't sound very enthusiastic. <Jim Gaffigan commentary voice>Hey, I like Clinton, buddy!</> I'm only guessing, but I'll bet Trump gets a yuuuge amount of votes from people who don't care very much and just want to screw around.