Canada gets a conservative majority government.

[CatInASuit]

Following the failure of the existing coalition a few months ago, Canada went to the polls yesterday and returned a majority Conservative government, which will no longer have to rely on partners to try and push through legislation.

The biggest surprises of the night were the collapse of the Liberal vote dropping them into thrid place behind the New Deomcrats and the wipeout of the Bloc Quebecois vote dropping them to only one seat.

I guess this is the reward for PM Stephen Harper in steering his country through the current economic crisis and coming out stronger than most other countries.

More here

[Rube E. Tewesday]

Undoubtedly people appreciated our economy not sucking as badly as others, although it's hard to say how much the Conservatives actually had to do with that.

The Conservatives were probably also helped by the collapse of the Liberals, as right-centre voters who normally would have voted Liberal probably went Conservative out of fear of a New Democrat government.

Strange times.

[Zuul]

Are the Conservatives anti-LGBT rights? I noticed that my gay and lesbian Canadian friends have been tweeting concerns about their country "becoming the US" and turning against them. Just post-election dramatics or what?

[Rube E. Tewesday]

Well, there are certainly anti-LGBT elements in the Conservatives, but LGBT tolerance is so entrenched here, at least in urban areas, that I don't see much danger. Of course, as an old straight guy, I may be missing something.

ETA: And of course, the extremely LGBT friendly NDP made huge gains, so I don't see much sign of a large public move towards homophobia.

[Muffin]

The Conservatives opposed same-sex marriage when it was voted on in Parliament in 2005, and tried to get a further vote on it in 2006.

Various provincial courts of appeal have found that same-sex marriage is constitutionally protected. The Supreme Court of Canada found that the government had the authority to set out who can get married, but it did not get into whether or not same sex marriage is constitutionally protected.

My guess is that if the Conservatives prohibited gay marriage, they would lose a lot of votes at the next election, and the courts including the Supreme Court of Canada would find their anti-gay legislation contrary to the constitution.

[Rube E. Tewesday]

That's the thing. While the Conservatives cannot be described as gay-friendly, I don't think their leadership cares enough about the issue to take the hits that would result from doing anything dramatic.

[Elendil's Heir]

Very interesting indeed. So, if I may ask selfishly: what does this mean for the Obama Administration, and the U.S. more broadly?

[parzival]

One thing I'm not clear on - what contributed to the rise of the NDP? What's their stance relative to the Liberals? What it seems to suggest is that Canada is becoming more polarized, but I may be misreading that.

Nate Silver (US political statistics blogger) had argued that Canada would have the same result as the UK (a lopsided representation of popular opinion on the new party, leading to a poor showing) and was prepared to blame it on the first past the post voting. He may have simply been wrong, or there may be even more support than the results show.

Also, what's the bigger story - collapse of the BQ or the Conservative majority?

[Muffin]

With respect to the USA, there will be little difference than the last couple of decades or so, going back as far as the Conservatives under Mulroney, then the Conservatives briefly under Campbell, then the Liberals under Cretien with Martin running Finance, then the Liberals under Martin, and then the Conservatives under Harper first as a minority and now as a majority.

Full ahead on free trade with the USA, and developing free trade with the EU.

Continuing harmonization on border security.

Continuing focus on Canadian arctic sovereignty.

Continuing development of the Alberta tar sands.

[Muffin]

Rise of the Conservatives? They took Liberal seats in southern Ontario, particularly in the region surrounding Toronto, which tends to be a region very focused on the economy. Fall of the Liberals? No strong leader and no strong platform. Rise of the NDP? Strong leader, strong platform, and collapse of the Bloc. Collapse of the separatist Bloc? Many people from Quebec want to stay in Canada and be engaged in Canadian politics and government, but don't like the western based Conservatives, don't trust the Quebec scandal ridden Liberals, and generally prefer a more social based party, thus the NDP. Either that, or the Bloc collapse and the rise of the NDP in Quebec was just a computer glitch at Elections Canada, who will sort out the problem in due time.