What will happen if Egypt's current ruler falls.

[CatInASuit]

Following the riots and governmental changeover in Tunisia, the unrest has spreas to Egpyt with riots in the street, communications and internet cut and the government cracking down on protesters. If the same course is taken, then it is likely that President Mubarak will leave the country soon.

This could cause a few problems given that Egpyt was one of the more stable of the Middle East Countries, which actually had some kind of democracy in place. It is currently autocratic, but the main opposition see this as a chance to remove him.

If it does, the question to be asked is will Egpyt fall into flames or will it survive relatively intact?

There is also the effect it could have on other countries in the area who are watching this to see what happens. If Egypt is force to change its government by the will of the people, could this happen elsewhere? Will this destabilise the Peace Process and which other countries are likely to be at risk?

Strangely enough, most people are being told it is safe to still travel to the country and just to avoid the demonstrations, unlike Tunisia where it was suggested that people should leave at the first opportunity.

[What Exit?]

I really don't believe President Mubarak will fall. If he did I sadly doubt democracy will break out. Eqypt will end up in a civil war and the radical Islamic groups will either win out or largely wreck the country at least. As a bad economy will make it easier for them to win.

I still really doubt this is going to unseat Mubarak, it might if we're all lucky cause some reforms but overall Egypt unlike Tunisia is a fairly stable country and economy.

[hobbler]

Tunisia's unrest started because of massive government nepotism and corruption. Islam played almost no role in it. The majority of the "reforms" the radical Islamists want in Egypt would help them use democracy to get rid of democracy. Do you really think that the people of Egypt would be better off if the Islamic Brotherhood were in charge? How about the people of Saudi? Look how well Iran's democracy is working.

[Zuul]

I really don't believe President Mubarak will fall.

Any particular reason why you doubt it'll happen? When I read the news this morning it looked like it was getting worse. This is fairly long, but gives some background in addition to current events.

[What Exit?]

Because he has a strong police force and loyalty from the army and I am sure the US & UK will actually support him out of fear of losing a fairly good ally to Islamic fundamentalists.

[Zuul]

From what I understand, his desire to have his son replace him has weakened some of his military support, though, so his position isn't as strong as it had been. Some of the police stripped off their uniforms and joined in the protests, as well. I really, sincerely hope that the Islamic Brotherhood doesn't gain control.

[What Exit?]

Best case is he keeps control by putting in democratic reform. Pull a bit of a Franco.

[Zuul]

Somebody posted what's supposed to be commentary from a woman in Alexandria. I'm a little dubious about it. Assuming this woman is really in Alexandria and reporting things accurately, it's still only one person's viewpoint. She might be correct about what she's seen and still be inaccurate by assuming what she's seen reflects the whole situation.

[The Original An Gadaí]

This related report is fascinating! http://blogs.forbes.com/andygreenber...bles-to-egypt/

[Zuul]

Wow, that is fascinating, AG.

[Hatshepsut]

I think this spells the end for Mubarak. What happens next is anyone's guess, but I'll speculate that the Moslem Brotherhood may predominate in whatever government comes next.

What a mess. It was only a matter of time, though. These things, and by things I mean "aging leaders who weren't total dictators but who squelched freedom and hung on to power for decades, blind to the will of the people" generally don't end well.

Reminds me of what Indonesia went through with the end of the Suharto reign.

[hobbler]

Just curious, but who here supported Saddam's rule and feels the current strife in Iraq is preferable. Also, who here believes Iran's "democracy" is better than the Shah's rule?

On that note, I can't stand most of you people who are burying your heads in the sand with wishes for "democratic reforms" in Egypt. The place is fucked up and the only thing holding it together is Mubarak. Do you really want people in charge of Egypt who supported the bombings of the Coptic churches or the people behind the assassination of Sadat, the man who pushed and shoved the Arab world into a truce with Israel? That's the "will of the people".

The comparison to Indonesia isn't applicable, because the push there came from internal sources. A majority of the Islamic Brotherhood in Egypt can be linked to the Palestinians, who can be linked to Hezbollah (primarily Palestinian refugees in Lebanon), which has some pretty obvious ties to Iran. Iran's game plan right now is to destabilize the region. An overtly Islamic Egypt would threaten the nutjobs in Israel, who right now can rely on the Egyptians as being friendly neutral. What will they do once they feel threatened from that border as well?

Or in American terms, people in charge of wanting these "democratic reforms" has the benefit of the people in mind just as much as the leaders of the Tea Party do.

Shit like this is why I can't stand most liberals or conservatives. Pull your idealism blinders off for a change and try looking at the world as a whole instead of in snapshots.

[Hatshepsut]

Who here believes Iran's "democracy" is better than the Shah's rule?

The Shah's ill-advised rule was a central contributing factor to where Iran is today.

On that note, I can't stand most of you people who are burying your heads in the sand with wishes for "democratic reforms" in Egypt. The place is fucked up and the only thing holding it together is Mubarak.

Mubarak is a frail old man who can't last forever, and his idea of an orderly transition is to shove Gamal down the throats of a populace who doesn't want him. Truly the mark of a leader who cares deeply for his people, and not only for himself! Since he is going to last forever and he is the "glue" holding Egypt together, let us indeed give him our support. It would be cruel to the people of Egypt to think coherently about a post-Mubarak Egypt.

Do you really want people in charge of Egypt who supported the bombings of the Coptic churches or the people behind the assassination of Sadat, the man who pushed and shoved the Arab world into a truce with Israel? That's the "will of the people".

Sadat was assassinated in 1981. A lot of the current protesters were hardly even alive then. And I never sensed hatred for Sadat among the general populace during my 6+ years living and working alongside Egyptians. If you want to make the claim that the "will of the people" in Egypt today is supportive of Sadat's assassination, you need to back that up with some hard facts.

Further, you don't think Al-Azhar has anything to do with the will of the people? They went on record condemning the Alex attack.

The comparison to Indonesia isn't applicable, because the push there came from internal sources. A majority of the Islamic Brotherhood in Egypt can be linked to the Palestinians,

You insult the people of Egypt with the claim that they cannot think for themselves, and are merely the puppets of external forces. A pretty contemptible claim. Further, the Moslem Brotherhood has worked hard to establish grassroots support in Egypt.

Or in American terms, people in charge of wanting these "democratic reforms" has the benefit of the people in mind just as much as the leaders of the Tea Party do.

I'm losing you here. Who are the "people in charge of wanting democratic reforms" that don't care about the benefit of the people?

Shit like this is why I can't stand most liberals or conservatives.

In other words, you can't stand people who have a coherent, well-thought-out world view based on principles they deeply believe in?

[Zuul]

I find this argument fascinating, knowing you're both American expats who have firsthand experience with some of the places you're talking about. You're like the Bizarro versions of one another.

Anyway, in the El Salvador thread I saw Nrblex make reference to the situation in Egypt reminding him of some of the choices we had to make during the Cold War. That might not be too far off.

[hobbler]

I'm not insulting the Egyptian people or implying that everyone shares the same motives. Every demonstration or uprising has a hardcore group of organizers, which in this case is a group of Islamists that Mubarak has suppressed for the past few years. Last I checked there were no solid demands that were to be met other than Mubarak's immediate organization. The protests now aren't wanting a gradual transition from Mubarak, they're wanting him gone right now. Any legitimate opposition wanting to benefit your Average Abdullah would present a solid list of requests for governmental improvement instead of demanding an immediate collapse of the current government.

The only organization strong enough to fill that power vacuum will be the Moslem Brotherhood (sorry got it mixed up). The Moslem Brotherhood has the most to gain from Mubarak's messy resignation, is very well funded, and has a large support structure in surrounding countries. One group in particular you have have heard of is the Palestinian based Hamas, who's founders were definitely accepting of Sadat's. They may be decent and do some good things, but so has Hezbollah. Unfortunately they've some pretty unsavoury organizational links and lack the best mission statement. Never forget that these organizations plan long term, not short term.

My point is that you don't have a coherent, well thought out world view. You're wishy-washy and only look at the surface of things.

[hobbler]

To be fair, a lot of my anger with this stems from the way the majority of the world media treated the unrest in Thailand. Sometimes things sound like great ideas on the surface, but the people trying to implement those ideas have ulterior motives for unseating the government.

I'm pretty liberal in my beliefs, just immediately suspicious of anyone trying to sell a dream. Selling a dream costs nothing, buying it can cost a lot. There ain't no such thing as a free lunch.

[Hatshepsut]

Last I checked there were no solid demands that were to be met other than Mubarak's immediate organization.

Or his immediate resignation, whichever comes first.

Actually, I agree with a lot of what you say. If Mubarak wasn't a selfish old man blinded by his own ego, he would have planned an orderly transition quite some time ago. He'd have made it clear he was not going to stand for re-election in November and that he would accept whoever the NDP decided to run as their candidate - if not Gamal, so be it.

I heard a proposal last night that Mubarak should move the elections up to June - not a bad idea, but June is too soon. A token advancement might be a good idea - perhaps hold elections in September. I'd be surprised it the situation can be calmed enough for that to happen, but given where things now stand it would be a good outcome.

But June, September, November - it may well be an impossible situation now. Egypt is descending into mob violence. The Moslem Brotherhood may very well be able to seize power no matter what Mubarak says or what happens next.

To advocate for Mubarak to stay right now flies in the face of the facts. Yes, an orderly transition would have been wonderful, but circumstances have moved beyond that at this point. Mubarak, in my estimation, CANNOT hold on to power right now, and to propose that as a solution is useless. Far better to accept the fact that the only way to quell the uprising is to get him the hell out, and start planing for some semblance of a peaceful change. It probably won't work, but it is the best thing to try.

My point is that you don't have a coherent, well thought out world view. You're wishy-washy and only look at the surface of things.

Harsh words. Not sure what I said to deserve them. Or if you mean to address "everyone who identifies themselves as adhering to a liberal or conservative world view" as opposed to me personally, that's just nonsense. Plenty of both liberals and conservatives look beyond the surface and formulate their ideas with care. If you cannot recognize that, I suggest that the fault lies with your inability to accept or evaluate the point of view of others, rather than with all the liberals and conservatives who you so confidently dismiss.

[What Exit?]

I want to say I think I read it wrong last week. Surprisingly the US does not seem to be backing him as much as I thought and the army does not either as Zuul and others mentioned above.

[CatInASuit]

Well, the UK is now giving out the advice for all nationals to leave any major cities due to the unrest.

Wikileaks was reporting that far from being a full Mubarak supporter, they were also supporting several of the insurgents as well to try and force "democracy" into the country. Feel free to take with a large dose of salt.

[CatInASuit]

It looks as though the demand by popular acclaim is spreading.

King Abdullah of Jordan has just sacked his entire government after demonstrations calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Samir Rifai.

[What Exit?]

Jordan too, wow. Their King seems so benevolent overall too.

[Peeta Mellark]

CAIRO — Egypt's anti-government protesters, sensing victory after President Hosni Mubarak agreed to discuss sweeping political reforms, rallied support for what they hope can be a million-strong march for democracy on Tuesday.

More here.

[hobbler]

Jordan's king is incredibly benevolent, except for when it comes to the Palestinians. Look up "Black September". The issue was less with him and more with the current government.

Dude's also a Trekkie, appeared in an episode of DS9, and has a wife that's done a ridiculous amount of humanitarian things within the region and the country. I guess overall he's one of the most respected monarchs in the world right now.

[CatInASuit]

and now Yemen's president will be stepping down when his current term ends in 2013.

However, I'm waiting to see whether a country like Syria or Saudi Arabia will be affected by these kind of protests.

[hatesfreedom]

Pretty neat times we live in. I really can't add anything, think I've learned more from reading the two expats be snippy with each other than I knew before I arrived. Is it a good or a bad thing if the middle east falls into semi anarchy for a few years?

[hobbler]

Depends on if you like the way the Pakistani Tribal Regions and Somalia are working. The government has a loose hold on the area, so Sharia law picked up to fill the void. It's better than anarchy, but is it really better in the long run than what they're trying to overthrow?

BTW Syria and Saudi won't have similar problems for various reasons. Saudi's resistance isn't organized enough (export the trouble makers as mujahadeen) and the Syrian government is highly organized with a low tolerance for dissidents.

[CatInASuit]

I think the biggest concern that some western governments will have is if fundamentalist Muslim governments fill the void and take power. Mainly because in that area it comes with a lot of anti-american sentiment and washes over onto other countries as well.

Given that the Middle East still controls a lot of the World's oil supply, a little bit of anarchy will push up the cost causing the current global recession to bite deeper, another reason to want both a quick and stable resolution to the problems.

Finally, the country to take note of is going Israel, who is going to be watching this to see how it affects them. If they feel threatened by any of us, they Middle East will go into meltdown.